When will the multi-decade active era that began in 1995 end?

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cycloneye
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#181 Postby cycloneye » Tue Apr 05, 2016 10:18 am

Once again bumped this thread as the experts are chimming in about this question.This time is TSR. Excerpt of TSR April forecast below.

Should the TSR forecast for 2015 verify it would mean that the ACE index total for 2013-2016 was easily the lowest 4-year total since 1991-1994 and it would imply that the active phase of Atlantic hurricane activity which began in 1995 has likely ended
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#182 Postby WPBWeather » Tue Apr 05, 2016 11:19 am

I did see today (4/5) that Weatherbell is calling for above average season with 130-150% of normal ACE. Just reporting the facts I read.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#183 Postby gatorcane » Tue Apr 05, 2016 12:30 pm

tolakram wrote:Does ninel work for the Washington Post? :D

Recurring East Coast low pressure may be saving U.S. from major hurricanes
By Phil Klotzbach and Brian McNoldy December 9

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/cap ... urricanes/


Interesting read, this graphic from the article really catches my attention. Could you imagine if South Florida gets into an active cycle again with all of the urban development that has taken place here during this inactive period?

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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#184 Postby vbhoutex » Tue Apr 05, 2016 12:44 pm

gatorcane wrote:
tolakram wrote:Does ninel work for the Washington Post? :D

Recurring East Coast low pressure may be saving U.S. from major hurricanes
By Phil Klotzbach and Brian McNoldy December 9

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/cap ... urricanes/


Interesting read, this graphic from the article really catches my attention. Could you imagine if South Florida gets into an active cycle again with all of the urban development that has taken place here during this inactive period?

http://i.imgur.com/4xIjP4X.png

I'm not sure I even want to think about the consequences of that!! Ike should have been a HUGE wake up call for the Houston/Galveston area, yet NOTHING has been done to even assuage the probability of surge destruction as we saw during Ike. I imagine the same can be said about your area concerning that + our area continues to be one of the fastest growing in the US too.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#185 Postby Alyono » Tue Apr 05, 2016 1:07 pm

only 7

Gloria was NOT a 3. 90 kt winds equate to a cat 2 hurricane. Gloria should not be there
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#186 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Apr 18, 2016 6:11 pm

I will wait until next year to determine if it has ended or not as this is a transition year from El Niño to La Niña
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#187 Postby Blown Away » Wed Apr 20, 2016 3:27 pm

Image
1944, 1945, 1947, 1948, 1949, 1950, wow, 5 major hurricanes for SFL in 6 year window!! Something persistent in the atmosphere for decades caused so many canes to steer towards SFL/CONUS and we certainly have not seen that type of pattern, except for 2004/05 to some small degree, since @1960. Like to understand what has been driving that persistent low off the CONUS for decades. Interesting graphic Gatorcane...
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#188 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Apr 20, 2016 4:18 pm

I hope we are not heading for another group of Florida major landfalls the next 20 years but it seems like every 50 years there seems to be a shift in where the majority of the paths


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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#189 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Apr 20, 2016 4:31 pm

Don't know if this belongs here but I saw this on Twitter earlier.

Jim Edds
@ExtremeStorms

April 2004 Dr. Bill Gray, "I don't think the average Floridian knows how lucky they have been & what's coming . . ."

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Even prior to 2004 Florida was not as extremely lucky as it has been since October 2005 in terms of hurricane hits with Irene(1999), Erin(1995), and Opal(1995).
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#190 Postby cycloneye » Sat Apr 23, 2016 8:58 am

I will join others about this 2016 season as the key one to know about the question of this thread (Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?)
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#191 Postby psyclone » Sat Apr 23, 2016 12:07 pm

I'd suggest its ended unless it demonstrates otherwise.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#192 Postby WPBWeather » Sat Apr 23, 2016 4:22 pm

I'll paraphrase Yogi Berra: it's over unless it's not over.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#193 Postby xcool22 » Sat Apr 23, 2016 5:36 pm

I think hurricane season is dead imo
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#194 Postby Alyono » Sat Apr 23, 2016 6:36 pm

If you use 1985 as the start of the active phase, then it lasted for 27 years.

Lets remember, that from 1985-2012, the only below average years were either niño years or niño-like years (such as 1992, which was not even as quiet as initially thought due to all of the missed storms)

1985 was very active in terms of hurricanes, 1988-1989 were both quite active in terms of the number of intense storms. It was only 1991, 1993, 1994, 1997 (which I have heard may have a storm added, which would bring that year's total to 9), 2002, 2006, and 2009 that had below average seasons during the active phase. That would mean only 7 out of 27 below average seasons
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#195 Postby Andrew92 » Sat Apr 23, 2016 7:29 pm

Alyono wrote:If you use 1985 as the start of the active phase, then it lasted for 27 years.

Lets remember, that from 1985-2012, the only below average years were either niño years or niño-like years (such as 1992, which was not even as quiet as initially thought due to all of the missed storms)

1985 was very active in terms of hurricanes, 1988-1989 were both quite active in terms of the number of intense storms. It was only 1991, 1993, 1994, 1997 (which I have heard may have a storm added, which would bring that year's total to 9), 2002, 2006, and 2009 that had below average seasons during the active phase. That would mean only 7 out of 27 below average seasons


1986 and 1987 were quiet too, and were El Nino years.

Still, that's an interesting theory. It does seem odd that the non-El Nino years in the period 1985-1994 were all busy. 1990, the one with the most tropical storms and hurricanes, was probably the least interesting going up against 1985, 1988, 1989, and 1992 (though that year also had just one major, and barely at that).

It also shortens the inactive period to just 15 years. And indeed, we just haven't had seasons quite like 1972, 1982, or 1983 in recent years at all. I will grant that 2013 was close with only two hurricanes, but there were still 14 storms that year. I still have some doubts if the active period is over, but time will tell.

-Andrew92
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#196 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon May 09, 2016 3:56 pm

One can only wonder if and when we will see such a favorable pattern for landfalling hurricanes in Florida. Cause a repeat of 1944-1953 for Florida would be devastating!
:double:

Philip Klotzbach
‏@philklotzbach
0 hurricanes have impacted FL in past 10 yrs. Record for hurricanes impacting FL in a 10-year span is 14 (1944-1953)

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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#197 Postby Hammy » Mon May 09, 2016 5:57 pm

cycloneye wrote:I will join others about this 2016 season as the key one to know about the question of this thread (Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?)


I have continued to say for a few years now that 2017 is the tell-all year: we need two consecutive non-Nino seasons in order to actually know especially since this year may still have some residual effects.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#198 Postby gigabite » Mon May 09, 2016 8:27 pm

I have noticed that the distance to the sun and the sunspot number have a role to play in Atlantic tropical storm frequency. Both are positively correlated and will be a factor more in the 2016 season than in the 2017 season. The reason for the interaction is atmospheric pressure. When the sun backs off global water vapor increases. The more water vapor in the atmosphere the more reactive the atmosphere is to turbulence. The larger the mass that is put in motion the larger the tendency for that mass to keep moving.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#199 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat May 14, 2016 10:44 pm

Based on the sea surface temps we are still in a +AMO and think we have another 10 years before the flip and thereforth we're probably still in the active phase with a 3 year break ending IMO depending on this year

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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#200 Postby Dean_175 » Mon May 16, 2016 3:20 pm

^^ Yes I agree. The multi-decadal variation in Atlantic tropical activity is largely correlated with AMO- which is positive right now. We have seen a few neutral-slightly negative monthly values in AMO in the past few years, but this is normal even during a positive era. AMO has shown no indications of returning to the consistent strong negative values that were observed before 1995. I'd be reluctant to call en end the active era when the AMO has shown no significant sign of change. It takes more than just a few years to determine if there is an end to a multi-decade era. 2013 was probably just a fluke year of inactivity, while 2014 and 2015's inactivity is likely related to a very warm Pacific. 2016 is projected to be a La Nina - but the tropical east/central Pacific could remain warm outside the equatorial regions. It would take a few more years of non-El Nino years of relative inactivity to reach a conclusion that an era of less Atlantic tropical activity has begun.
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