When will the multi-decade active era that began in 1995 end?

[Ptarmigan]

2013 in the WPAC was more active than usual for recent years too? So that may be a hint as well.

Yes it was quite active...

27 Tropical storms
15 Typhoons
11 Major Typhoons
---Five category 4
---Three category 5...

Some saying 2013 was very slow but i don't know what is considered a *slow*, *below average* over here since it is always active...

It was also deadly...6825 killed...mostly from haiyan in the P.I...

2013 for the West Pacific started slow as it would be considered a late bloomer.

[cycloneye]

This is when the multi-decade active period began in 1995. Now in 2014 we dream to have something close like this but I keep asking the question. Did the active period ended earlier than expected?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

2013 in the WPAC was more active than usual for recent years too? So that may be a hint as well.

Yes it was quite active...

27 Tropical storms
15 Typhoons
11 Major Typhoons
---Five category 4
---Three category 5...

Some saying 2013 was very slow but i don't know what is considered a *slow*, *below average* over here since it is always active...

It was also deadly...6825 killed...mostly from haiyan in the P.I...

2013 for the West Pacific started slow as it would be considered a late bloomer.

BELOW AVERAGE ACE is probably why. It is slow because many of those storms and those STS/TYPHOON comobos have contributed less than expected ACE; Lastly, despite those, the ratio of named storms and typhoons is 31:13 but 27:15 which is close to average.

A better time for tracking the WPAC is this year, the storms are generally stronger. YEAR-TO-DATE ACE this year (126) is nearly 4 times more than of last year (about 39) and back to the topic.


The ATL multidecadal active period has ended IMO, due to gradually lower ACE, and a significantly different environment which is not very conducive for tropical cyclone intensification. It has been a longgggg while since there was a major hurricane over the basin, it was nearly 2 years ago. Forecasts are contra (against) an above-normal season, and if it pans out, it would be the consecutive second year for very below normal activity. Last year was not an ordinary type of below-normal and it was record-breaking. Stability, dry air are factors as well for this inactivity. How could we get an active season with this? How long has been the ATL this unfavorable, and when was the last time this had happened? Therefore, I'd say that it had already ended.

[gatorcane]

This is when the multi-decade active period began in 1995. Now in 2014 we dream to have something close like this but I keep asking the question. Did the active period ended earlier than expected?

http://oi59.tinypic.com/o7qc1d.jpg

Those were the days....I could only imagine how active this board would be if the Atlantic looked like that!

[TheStormExpert]

Even in 2006 there was a time when we had three consecutive storms traversing the Atlantic. Miss those good days.

[euro6208]

What really happened to the atlantic???

It was a good 15 years though 1995-2010...

RIP...

Although the only real active season is probrably 2004-2005...Other years were less than optimistic...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Off topic: If you guys tracked the Pacific, we had even something more. 1 Category 5 super typhoon, another category 1 or 2 typhoon which was a category 5 as well, a strong tropical storm and a major hurricane named Julio. Simultaneously.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Maybe despite the period possibly being over, there may be a blip in the inactivity; a possible HYPERACTIVE season.

[euro6208]

Maybe despite the period possibly being over, there may be a blip in the inactivity; a possible HYPERACTIVE season.

Yup even in the most hostile years, storms like sandy and ike can develop. It only takes one storm to make a season bad causing death and destruction in this part of the world...but many more has occured in other atlantic coastlines...

[wxman57]

The last warm cycle was from 1926-1969 - 44 years. I think the current warm cycle will be around for quite a few more years. Even during a warm cycle there are cool years. I think we may be about half way through the current warm cycle. Here's a graphic I made of the AMO from 1856-2014. Look at that cool period in the 1940s. In fact, the current warm cycle stands out for its relative lack of intermittent cool periods.

[gatorcane]

The last warm cycle was from 1926-1969 - 44 years. I think the current warm cycle will be around for quite a few more years. Even during a warm cycle there are cool years. I think we may be about half way through the current warm cycle. Here's a graphic I made of the AMO from 1856-2014. Look at that cool period in the 1940s. In fact, the current warm cycle stands out for its relative lack of intermittent cool periods.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/AMO.jpg

Very interesting graphic, thanks for sharing that. So it seems some cool years are expected and nothing unusual even during a warm cycle.

[wxman57]

Very interesting graphic, thanks for sharing that. So it seems some cool years are expected and nothing unusual even during a warm cycle.

Correct. Cool years during a warm cycle are to be expected. Here's a plot of the last 7 years of AMO temps. No really cool periods.



Compare the above to a similar plot from the 1940s. Note the quite cool period from 1946-1948. The warm cycle ended 20 years later:

[cigtyme]

Wxman57, thanks for sharing that graphic. Your expertise in the Field is quite impressive. Not Dissing other Mets, just letting him know his opinion are greatly valued by most on here.

[euro6208]

Looks like 2004-2005 spoiled many and expects every season to be similiar...

[CrazyC83]

1995 was when EPAC activity collapsed for the most part as well. This is looking to be the busiest EPAC year in that era too. More clues we have hit a change?

[Ptarmigan]

The last warm cycle was from 1926-1969 - 44 years. I think the current warm cycle will be around for quite a few more years. Even during a warm cycle there are cool years. I think we may be about half way through the current warm cycle. Here's a graphic I made of the AMO from 1856-2014. Look at that cool period in the 1940s. In fact, the current warm cycle stands out for its relative lack of intermittent cool periods.

Is the graph based on annual AMO average?

Even during cool phases of the Atlantic, there were instances were the Atlantic was warm, even back to back like in 1979 to 1980 and 1988 to 1989. I notice the 1960s had cooler than normal Atlantic despite being in warm phase.

Cool Phase
1900-1925
1970-1994

Warm Phase
?-1899
1926-1969
1995-?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Why would one think the active era ended? 2010, 2011, and 2012 were all very positive AMO years and featured 12, 7, and 10 hurricanes, respectively. ACE was above-average in all years.

Dry air has presented itself as much more of an issue as of the past few years, but that's likely a byproduct of such a long streak without an El Nino.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

1995 was when EPAC activity collapsed for the most part as well. This is looking to be the busiest EPAC year in that era too. More clues we have hit a change?

1995 was a cool Neutral to La Nina hurricane season, so it would make sense for the East Pacific to be quiet. Similarly, ocean temperatures have been near values needed for an El Nino, so it would make sense for the East Pacific to be hyperactive.

[Yellow Evan]

1995 was when EPAC activity collapsed for the most part as well. This is looking to be the busiest EPAC year in that era too. More clues we have hit a change?

PDO in the EPAC flipped in 1998. Debatable on whether it's active era ended in 95 or 98.

I will say that 2014 PHS is behaving almost exactly like most 80's and 90's seasons.

[Yellow Evan]

1995 was a cool Neutral to La Nina hurricane season, so it would make sense for the East Pacific to be quiet. Similarly, ocean temperatures have been near values needed for an El Nino, so it would make sense for the East Pacific to be hyperactive.

Not this hyperactive. 2006, and 2009 were legit El Nino's and didn't have the level of activity we're seeing now.