When will the multi-decade active era that began in 1995 end?

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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#221 Postby xcool22 » Wed Sep 07, 2016 4:44 pm

I really think hurricane is dead for long time maybe 11years



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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#222 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Sep 07, 2016 4:46 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:Yes.

2010 seems to be a pretty good demarcation between the last active era and this quiet one.


What was so inactive about 2011 and 2012?
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#223 Postby Macrocane » Wed Sep 07, 2016 4:50 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:Yes.

2010 seems to be a pretty good demarcation between the last active era and this quiet one.


Actually 2011 and 2012 were pretty active too in the Atlantic. The big shift happened in 2013, when all of the forecasts for an active season failed.

Another interesting change is that in 2014 the EPAC started a streak of hyperactivity that seems to be still ongoing in 2016.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#224 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Wed Sep 07, 2016 8:17 pm

2011 and 2012 were some of the most active seasons on record. 2013 was inactive because the pattern never left spring. 2014 was when EL Nino begun and the activity really ended.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#225 Postby Hammy » Wed Sep 07, 2016 9:04 pm

Macrocane wrote:Another interesting change is that in 2014 the EPAC started a streak of hyperactivity that seems to be still ongoing in 2016.


This falls in with El Nino's effects, and the tropical E Pacific still hasn't cooled as the large La Nina forecast hasn't happened.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#226 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Sep 07, 2016 9:16 pm

With regards to 2011 and 2012, it is interesting because there were a ton of named storms, but ACE/storm was pretty low. Even with 19 tropical storms, the two seasons didn't qualify for hyperactivity because the ACE total was too low. Something about those two years just seems fishy to me.

Has the Atlantic basin left the active era? I don't know for sure yet, but I am leaning towards "yes" at the moment.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#227 Postby Ntxw » Wed Sep 07, 2016 9:24 pm

1900hurricane wrote:With regards to 2011 and 2012, it is interesting because there were a ton of named storms, but ACE/storm was pretty low. Even with 19 tropical storms, the two seasons didn't qualify for hyperactivity because the ACE total was too low. Something about those two years just seems fishy to me.

Has the Atlantic basin left the active era? I don't know for sure yet, but I am leaning towards "yes" at the moment.


They still produced more than normal ACE though in totality. There were probably more weak (named) storms but there were enough good producing ones as you would expect with a normal season. You're right though that the Atlantic has been in an inactive period, there's no argument there. Question is whether it is something to be expected to continue.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#228 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Sep 07, 2016 9:36 pm

Ntxw wrote:
1900hurricane wrote:With regards to 2011 and 2012, it is interesting because there were a ton of named storms, but ACE/storm was pretty low. Even with 19 tropical storms, the two seasons didn't qualify for hyperactivity because the ACE total was too low. Something about those two years just seems fishy to me.

Has the Atlantic basin left the active era? I don't know for sure yet, but I am leaning towards "yes" at the moment.


They still produced more than normal ACE though in totality. There were probably more weak (named) storms but there were enough good producing ones as you would expect with a normal season. You're right though that the Atlantic has been in an inactive period, there's no argument there. Question is whether it is something to be expected to continue.


Yes they did, but with seasons that had the second-most tropical storms since 1950 and third-most overall in historical record, one would expect to see ACE rankings near the top as well. In 2011 and 2012's cases though, that's not what happened, and it's something that has always bugged me about those seasons.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#229 Postby otowntiger » Thu Sep 08, 2016 2:31 pm

[quote" Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?][/quote] yes, it most definitely has.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#230 Postby dexterlabio » Thu Sep 08, 2016 7:19 pm

1900hurricane wrote:


Yes they did, but with seasons that had the second-most tropical storms since 1950 and third-most overall in historical record, one would expect to see ACE rankings near the top as well. In 2011 and 2012's cases though, that's not what happened, and it's something that has always bugged me about those seasons.


I'm more inclined to think that the downtrend began in 2012. Yes, it produced a record number of TS but it's quite intriguing how none of them managed to attain Cat4 strength, or having at least a quarter of that number become major hurricanes. I mean if conditions were actually near perfect, why did only 2 Cat3's form out of the 19 tropical storms?
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#231 Postby Hammy » Thu Sep 08, 2016 8:30 pm

dexterlabio wrote:
1900hurricane wrote:


Yes they did, but with seasons that had the second-most tropical storms since 1950 and third-most overall in historical record, one would expect to see ACE rankings near the top as well. In 2011 and 2012's cases though, that's not what happened, and it's something that has always bugged me about those seasons.


I'm more inclined to think that the downtrend began in 2012. Yes, it produced a record number of TS but it's quite intriguing how none of them managed to attain Cat4 strength, or having at least a quarter of that number become major hurricanes. I mean if conditions were actually near perfect, why did only 2 Cat3's form out of the 19 tropical storms?


2012 flirted with El Nino, but it never materialized. So while conditions were otherwise favorable for many storms to form, there was higher than normal shear in the MDR as a result of borderline Nino conditions. Steering was also a problem, a few storms in particular--Leslie began strengthening but then sat over the same place for days, causing upwelling; Isaac never developed a proper inner core due to the monsoonal nature, despite the low pressure; and Gordon/Karl were fairly high latitude due to a weaker high pressure.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#232 Postby Ptarmigan » Thu Sep 08, 2016 9:50 pm

Ntxw wrote:
1900hurricane wrote:With regards to 2011 and 2012, it is interesting because there were a ton of named storms, but ACE/storm was pretty low. Even with 19 tropical storms, the two seasons didn't qualify for hyperactivity because the ACE total was too low. Something about those two years just seems fishy to me.

Has the Atlantic basin left the active era? I don't know for sure yet, but I am leaning towards "yes" at the moment.


They still produced more than normal ACE though in totality. There were probably more weak (named) storms but there were enough good producing ones as you would expect with a normal season. You're right though that the Atlantic has been in an inactive period, there's no argument there. Question is whether it is something to be expected to continue.


ACE/Storm (1870-2015)
Mean: 9.38
Median: 8.7
Standard Deviation: 4.06

Since 2010
Year TS/H/MH ACE ACE/Storm
2010 19/12/5 165 8.7
2011 19/ 7/4 126 6.6
2012 19/10/2 129 6.8
2013 14/ 2/0 36 2.6
2014 8/6/2 67 8.4
2015 11/4/2 63 5.4

The ACE/Storm is within average from 2010 to 2015. The exception is 2013, which is one of the lowest on record. Even the most active 2005 season had average ACE/Storm

Year TS/H/MH ACE ACE/Storm
2005 28/15/7 250 8.9

The ACE/Storm is much higher in 1915, 1926, 1933, 1961, 1967, 1998, and 1999.
Year TS/H/MH ACE ACE/Storm
1915 6/5/3 130 21.7
1926 11/8 6 230 20.9
1933 20/11/6 259 13.0
1961 11/8/7 205 18.6
1967 8/6/1 122 15.3
1998 14/10/3 182 13.0
1999 12/8/5 177 14.8
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#233 Postby Darvince » Fri Sep 09, 2016 12:38 am

Hey Hammy, do you have anything that shows how the global atmospheric pattern stayed in spring throughout summer 2013? I'm just curious, don't take offense at this. :D
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#234 Postby Hammy » Fri Sep 09, 2016 2:07 am

Darvince wrote:Hey Hammy, do you have anything that shows how the global atmospheric pattern stayed in spring throughout summer 2013? I'm just curious, don't take offense at this. :D


No offense, asking questions is how we learn. :D

Anyway, the article sourced in the 2013 hurricane season on Wikipedia (where I initially read it)

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Includes/Documents/Publications/2013season_short.pdf

Essentially as we moved into the most active part of the season, the atmosphere reverted to more of a springtime pattern, and this seemed to be globally and not just in the Atlantic (hence why I generally toss 2013 as far as a determinant of whether the active cycle continues or not.)
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#235 Postby centuryv58 » Fri Sep 16, 2016 10:58 am

As of Sept 16, 2016, I'd say the answer is NO, but we've only had 12 named storms so far. I'll update this post as the number of named storms for 2016 increases.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#236 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 16, 2016 1:03 pm

I lifted this from: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U ... hurricanes

Image

This has not been updated for Hermine, putting the 2010's at 6 so far with 3.5 years left. Assuming we stay slow till the end of the decade, which is a big assumption, we could be similar to the 70's for number of strikes. In my opinion streaks of hits or non hits is a meaningless statistic since it's mostly luck based. Anything meaningful in weather statistics is measured over decades, not simply years.

Using hurricane strikes only we could say we're in a new in-active era, but it would only take one or two bad seasons to change that idea.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#237 Postby Kazmit » Fri Sep 16, 2016 2:03 pm

I wouldn't say the number of storms have decreased, but in recent years the overall strength of the storms has declined (except Joaquin from last year). And even though 2012 had a lot of storms, none of them passed Cat 3 strength. So it's been quantity over quality really.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#238 Postby Hammy » Fri Sep 16, 2016 2:17 pm

tolakram wrote:Using hurricane strikes only we could say we're in a new in-active era, but it would only take one or two bad seasons to change that idea.


You're certainly right about how much impact one or two years can make--the vast majority of the 2000s hurricane hits were 2004-05. I don't think this is a good measure of whether we're in an active period or not, as it ignores how many storms actually forms, as well as what impacts they have outside the U.S. 2010 for instance had one weak US landfall, but look what Mexico and Central America had to deal with.

Kazmit_ wrote:I wouldn't say the number of storms have decreased, but in recent years the overall strength of the storms has declined (except Joaquin from last year). And even though 2012 had a lot of storms, none of them passed Cat 3 strength. So it's been quantity over quality really.


I still believe that the attempted El Nino still had some effects in the Atlantic as far as reducing the intensity, if not the overall number, of storms that year. I don't think we'll honestly know until we have a few true neutral/strong Nina years to see how the Atlantic reacts, especially since the tropical East Pacific has not cooled and has aided in the amount of shear over the Gulf this year.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#239 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 16, 2016 4:36 pm

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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#240 Postby xcool22 » Fri Sep 16, 2016 4:55 pm


that answer my question rite the..
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