When will the multi-decade active era that began in 1995 end?

[tolakram]

Happy to. This summarizes many of the critics. One can go to the MIT Weather guy's site to drill down to the details.

All I am saying is that Klotzbach did NOT do any study with this report. Only pure speculation.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/s ... s-disagree

I don't see any ground breaking criticism of his paper, or any evidence that anyone is doing anything but making educated guesses. I'm not debating either side, but I don't see any reason to criticize Klotzbach for putting out a hypothesis and then waiting, like everyone else, to see if it's correct.

“I think they’re pretty much wrong about this,” said MIT meteorology professor Kerry Emanuel, who also specialises in hurricane research. “That paper is not backed by a lot of evidence.”

Emanuel does not believe in the cycle cited by the researchers or the connection to ocean temperature and salinity. He thinks the quiet period of hurricanes of the 1970s and 1980s was connected to sulphur pollution and the busy period that followed was a result of the cleaning of the air.

Jim Kossin of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said cooler water temperatures earlier this year might be due to Atlantic dust, and August temperatures in the area have risen.

Another NOAA scientist, Gabriel Vecchi, said while there seemed to be signs of a change in the circulation of the Atlantic, it was far too early to say that the shift had happened.

“So what happens in the next few years is going to be very exciting to watch as it may help settle or at least refine some intense scientific debates,” Vecchi said.

Maybe there is no cycle.

Regardless, media love to present scientific hypothesis as arguments and doubts as criticism. I love the URL

atlantic-hurricanes-getting-weaker-scientists-disagree

Did he say they were getting weaker?

You can access the paper in nature by using the link at the end of the WP article. It passes an access key that should allow full viewing.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/09/11/the-active-hurricane-era-that-brought-us-katrina-and-sandy-may-be-over/

[Yellow Evan]

I believe we are still in the active era due to when El Ninos are this strong in a non active era there tend to be 5 or less storms in non active era el nino years and this year looks like there could be up to 10 named storms

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Keep in mind some systems during El Ninos from the last inactive age may be missing from HURDAT. That could account for the difference.

[gatorcane]

perhaps we need to wait on this topic as the Atlantic MDR is lighting up even more. Might have two big ACE pumpers this week.

[gigabite]

There are still 2.5 months left in the season and we just hit the half way point as far as expectations go (9 tropical storms 9 point something) of the Storm2k poll. The ybar is 10. We are in the middle of the poll expectations with 5 or 6 storms to go to hit median number of storms for last decade I'd say nothing has changed. The median for this decade is already 16.5, so a 15 count would make it on par with last decade.

[blp]

Hard to fathom it has been that long.


Philip Klotzbach – ‏@philklotzbach

63 Atl hurricanes since FL's last hurricane (Wilma). Odds are ~1:5000 given 20th century basin/FL landfall ratio.

[WPBWeather]

Hard to fathom it has been that long.


Philip Klotzbach – ‏@philklotzbach

63 Atl hurricanes since FL's last hurricane (Wilma). Odds are ~1:5000 given 20th century basin/FL landfall ratio.

I'm not sure if the PK tweet has anything to do with overall activity this year, which he projected too low a few months ago.

[Blown Away]

It took a few years of almosts with the El Nino, but IMO by summer 2016 the current giant El Nino will have purged out the atmosphere. This should provide for ideal conditions in the Atlantic and if all the dry air continues across the MDR, then IMO only the Active Era has ended...

[cycloneye]

2016 will be the pivotal year that may have the answer to this question so we wait and watch.

[Alyono]

:uarrow: 2016 will be the pivotal year that may have the answer to this question so we wait and watch.

Not if the Pacific SSts have the 1983 pattern. May need to wait until 2017

[Hammy]

I would still be tempted to say that the active period is still there, we had a slump in 2013-14, where 2015 had a significant favorable increase in many of the factors that contributed to a suppressed season the last few, except shear due to El Nino. And despite near-record El Nino, we had higher ACE than 2013 which wasn't an El Nino year.

[Dean_175]

AMO is still mostly positive- while it was mostly negative for many years before 1995. Since AMO is largely responsible for the multi-decadal variation in tropical storm activity in the Atlantic, I don't think the era is over yet. There hasn't really been indication of AMO shifting. Until that happens , I'd think of other factors for lower activity. The Pacific has been in an El Nino/quasi-El Nino state for 2 of the 3 "inactive" years. I'd wait to see what happens in 2016 and 2017.

[ninel conde]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 37m37 minutes ago State College, PA

Ramp up of global ACE due to Pacific is warning shot to atlantic Basin. El Nino to reverse and Atlantic to become tropical minefield 16-18

[Alyono]

fear mongering by Bastardi

[WPBWeather]

fear mongering by Bastardi

Perhaps, or perhaps not. As a ProMet, are you really buying into only PAC activity and no ATL activity? Seems counter to history and science to me. Too much focus on the PAC lets people think ATL cyclones are a thing of the past.

[Yellow Evan]

fear mongering by Bastardi

Perhaps, or perhaps not. As a ProMet, are you really buying into only PAC activity and no ATL activity? Seems counter to history and science to me. Too much focus on the PAC lets people think ATL cyclones are a thing of the past.

How does it counter history? This El Nino is much like 1982, more so than 1997. Depending on how fast this fades, a 1983 situation is a possibility. So is a 2010/1998 season.

[Alyono]

fear mongering by Bastardi

Perhaps, or perhaps not. As a ProMet, are you really buying into only PAC activity and no ATL activity? Seems counter to history and science to me. Too much focus on the PAC lets people think ATL cyclones are a thing of the past.

It follows science to a T. It also follows historical precedent with the decay of the 1982 el niño

I see two main possibilities for next year. The first is a 1983-like season. The second is a hyperactive Atlantic due to the warm waters. From what I have seen to date (which of course can change), the 1983-like appears to be the most likely scenario as the PDO is likely to remain positive, which keeps the waters north of the equator warm. This means the ascending motion is over the Pacific, with very strong shear over possible the entire MDR, not just the Caribbean as we saw this year.

There is a 3rd option of near normal activity where if the warm waters north of the equator cool late to allow for an active late September and October. I consider that to be the 3rd most likely scenario, however.

[Alyono]

Even if we have a 1983, lets not forget that there were 2 Gulf hurricanes that year, along with an East Coast landfall

[Andrew92]

Don't overlook 1959 though. That season was like 1983 in several ways, but in a more favorable period for storms to form in the Atlantic. If the active period is still going on, I might compare 2016 to 1959 if the setup is similar.

La Nina was stronger at the equator in 1959 than 1983, but there were healthy warm anomalies where most EPAC hurricanes form. Like 1983, the MDR was all but shut down in 1959, with only Edith (which dissipated quickly) and Flora (which re-curved quickly) form south of 20 degrees that year.

Furthermore, both season had two hurricanes apiece in the Gulf, and the United States had a major hurricane hit the coast somewhere in both years: Gracie hit South Carolina in 1959 and Alicia hit Texas in 1983. As a bonus, there was even a major October EPAC hurricane that slammed into Mexico in both 1959 and 1983.

The only key difference between those two years, other than numbers and overall activity, is that 1959 was in an active Atlantic period and 1983 was in an inactive one. As such, there were more storms in 1959, but little overall quality. If you think there were 7 hurricanes that year looking at HURDAT, I will call to attention that two may be on the verge of being downgraded, and a third may have only been a hurricane for a few hours. Not too much more active than 1983 from that standpoint, really.

-Andrew92

[wxman57]

Even if we have a 1983, lets not forget that there were 2 Gulf hurricanes that year, along with an East Coast landfall

I'm thinking more like 1997 to 1998 as far as 2015 to 2016. Active Caribbean & Gulf.

[Alyono]

Don't overlook 1959 though. That season was like 1983 in several ways, but in a more favorable period for storms to form in the Atlantic. If the active period is still going on, I might compare 2016 to 1959 if the setup is similar.

La Nina was stronger at the equator in 1959 than 1983, but there were healthy warm anomalies where most EPAC hurricanes form. Like 1983, the MDR was all but shut down in 1959, with only Edith (which dissipated quickly) and Flora (which re-curved quickly) form south of 20 degrees that year.

Furthermore, both season had two hurricanes apiece in the Gulf, and the United States had a major hurricane hit the coast somewhere in both years: Gracie hit South Carolina in 1959 and Alicia hit Texas in 1983. As a bonus, there was even a major October EPAC hurricane that slammed into Mexico in both 1959 and 1983.

The only key difference between those two years, other than numbers and overall activity, is that 1959 was in an active Atlantic period and 1983 was in an inactive one. As such, there were more storms in 1959, but little overall quality. If you think there were 7 hurricanes that year looking at HURDAT, I will call to attention that two may be on the verge of being downgraded, and a third may have only been a hurricane for a few hours. Not too much more active than 1983 from that standpoint, really.

-Andrew92

not sure about a 1959 as some of those systems formed from waves and not nontropical systems, like what formed in 1983. Is it possible that the warm anomalies were slightly less in 1959 compared to 1983? I am asking as some of the waves seemed to survive into the Gulf where development occurred, whereas they were destroyed entirely in 1983