When will the multi-decade active era that began in 1995 end?

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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#201 Postby Hammy » Mon May 16, 2016 4:36 pm

Dean_175 wrote:^^ Yes I agree. The multi-decadal variation in Atlantic tropical activity is largely correlated with AMO- which is positive right now. We have seen a few neutral-slightly negative monthly values in AMO in the past few years, but this is normal even during a positive era. AMO has shown no indications of returning to the consistent strong negative values that were observed before 1995. I'd be reluctant to call en end the active era when the AMO has shown no significant sign of change. It takes more than just a few years to determine if there is an end to a multi-decade era. 2013 was probably just a fluke year of inactivity, while 2014 and 2015's inactivity is likely related to a very warm Pacific. 2016 is projected to be a La Nina - but the tropical east/central Pacific could remain warm outside the equatorial regions. It would take a few more years of non-El Nino years of relative inactivity to reach a conclusion that an era of less Atlantic tropical activity has begun.


I'll agree and add that 2013's tropical activity was down globally if I recall so something weird was obviously going on, not just in the Atlantic.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#202 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 27, 2016 11:35 am

Let's wait until 2017 says Dr Eric Blake of NHC.

EricBlake12 · 9m9 minutes ago

@RaleighWx active era is on probation now-- one more quiet year and sure looks done @philklotzbach
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#203 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri May 27, 2016 11:48 am

cycloneye wrote:Let's wait until 2017 says Dr Eric Blake of NHC.

EricBlake12 · 9m9 minutes ago

@RaleighWx active era is on probation now-- one more quiet year and sure looks done @philklotzbach


I hear that every year. If 2016 is average/below average, I think the active era is for sure done, at least for now.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#204 Postby Hammy » Fri May 27, 2016 5:28 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Let's wait until 2017 says Dr Eric Blake of NHC.

EricBlake12 · 9m9 minutes ago

@RaleighWx active era is on probation now-- one more quiet year and sure looks done @philklotzbach


I hear that every year. If 2016 is average/below average, I think the active era is for sure done, at least for now.


We had one anomalously quiet year in which global storm activity was down, and two El Nino seasons, both of which were above what the average El Nino system is--that's far too little to go on even if this year is below average, especially considering the residual effects of El Nino that several others have pointed out.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#205 Postby Ntxw » Fri May 27, 2016 7:18 pm

End or not we've gone on the 3 year Hiatus. That counts for something right? :lol:
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#206 Postby Blown Away » Tue Aug 02, 2016 9:10 am

Image
Tracks of all hurricanes since 2005... 136 total systems with 62 hurricanes... That's an average of 13.6 named systems and 6.2 hurricanes per year since 2005... IMO, amazing spread of hurricanes recurving away from land... Maybe the active era is still going, but some kind of persistent pattern change has occurred leaving that EC Trough in place recurving so many hurricanes... Not sure you can just chalk it up to luck... JMHO :D
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#207 Postby centuryv58 » Tue Aug 02, 2016 9:53 am

Blown Away wrote:Image
Tracks of all hurricanes since 2005... 136 total systems with 62 hurricanes... That's an average of 13.6 named systems and 6.2 hurricanes per year since 2005... IMO, amazing spread of hurricanes recurving away from land... Maybe the active era is still going, but some kind of persistent pattern change has occurred leaving that EC Trough in place recurving so many hurricanes... Not sure you can just chalk it up to luck... JMHO :D


Looks like as many hurricanes as before. Maybe they go different places now, but numbers appear undiminished.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#208 Postby WeatherEmperor » Tue Aug 02, 2016 10:33 am

Blown Away wrote:Image
Tracks of all hurricanes since 2005... 136 total systems with 62 hurricanes... That's an average of 13.6 named systems and 6.2 hurricanes per year since 2005... IMO, amazing spread of hurricanes recurving away from land... Maybe the active era is still going, but some kind of persistent pattern change has occurred leaving that EC Trough in place recurving so many hurricanes... Not sure you can just chalk it up to luck... JMHO :D


Perhaps this is what Ninel Conde is referring to this east coast trof. I dont know how all that works but it is amazing to see that just about all of the turned away from the east coast.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#209 Postby HurricaneBill » Tue Aug 02, 2016 7:18 pm

I wonder if it has anything to do with the below average tornado seasons since 2012.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#210 Postby wxmann_91 » Wed Aug 03, 2016 11:48 pm

HurricaneBill wrote:I wonder if it has anything to do with the below average tornado seasons since 2012.


Yes, and both are also connected with the California drought and the numerous East Coast snowstorms in the past decade. West Coast ridging and East Coast troughing has been predominant in recent years. Though the +PDO has played a role in this, there is some evidence to suggest that climate change will favor more such patterns in the future.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#211 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Aug 27, 2016 10:49 am

Well here we are on August 27th just a couple weeks away from the peak of the season with a named storm that is struggling to become a hurricane again after doing so for just one advisory, as well as two invests that do not look too promising when it comes to tropical development due to unfavorable conditions, and an area of disturbed weather in the NW GoM expected to move inland with no development due to unfavorable conditions and proximity to land.

Just by seeing this one has to wonder are we really still in the active era that the Atlantic has been in since 1995? It's still too soon to say but we should know more by the end of this season or at the very latest the end of the 2017 season. My amateur guess is currently we are no longer in it but others have also stated that this active era is known for it's lack of slow or dead seasons so it may take a few more years to really know if it just and downward spike before ramping up again or is this really the end.

There is a chance we could see a long tracking Cape Verde hurricane coming off Africa Wednesday according to the GFS & Euro but we shall see since original thoughts were that Gaston too would have been one of those type of storms which we have not seen in the Atlantic in YEARS.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#212 Postby Hammy » Sat Aug 27, 2016 2:17 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:Well here we are on August 27th just a couple weeks away from the peak of the season with a named storm that is struggling to become a hurricane again after doing so for just one advisory, as well as two invests that do not look too promising when it comes to tropical development due to unfavorable conditions, and an area of disturbed weather in the NW GoM expected to move inland with no development due to unfavorable conditions and proximity to land.

Just by seeing this one has to wonder are we really still in the active era that the Atlantic has been in since 1995? It's still too soon to say but we should know more by the end of this season or at the very latest the end of the 2017 season. My amateur guess is currently we are no longer in it but others have also stated that this active era is known for it's lack of slow or dead seasons so it may take a few more years to really know if it just and downward spike before ramping up again or is this really the end.

There is a chance we could see a long tracking Cape Verde hurricane coming off Africa Wednesday according to the GFS & Euro but we shall see since original thoughts were that Gaston too would have been one of those type of storms which we have not seen in the Atlantic in YEARS.


I'll agree with 2017 likely being the telling year--been saying since it became clear that 2015 would be a near-record El Nino, that we won't know until 2017 as 2016 would still have the lingering Nino effects as shown by the shear--aside from instability (which is probably 'normal' but shows below normal thanks to several hyper-active seasons) everything in the Atlantic is favorable, except for the shear (lingering Nino effects as the tropical E Pacific hasn't cooled enough yet) and the fact that the MJO is stuck in the WPac (which has literally nothing to do with the multidecadal cycles). 2016 was always going to be 50/50 as far as whether we'd have a bunch of weaker storms or a bunch of ACE pumps.

This season could still be similar to 1985 if the Euro plays out with 99L (which is questionable at the moment) but it could also be another 2001-type year, and that year we went all the way to September 1 having had only four short-lived tropical storms weeks apart from each other (and interestingly was also a year in which nothing occurred in July.)
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#213 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 27, 2016 2:30 pm

I still am unsure about this year and agree 2017 might be telling but we might be looking at another el nino as well. I always thought this season would get started in September and we aren't there yet.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#214 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 27, 2016 3:00 pm

IMO,the wave that will emerge West Africa and the models develop will show us important clues about if a longtracker can sustain all the way from Africa to the Western Atlantic given what we have seen so far in this 2016 season.It was believed that Gaston was going to be the system of the season racking up big ACE units but so far it has underperformed.Agreed that 2017 will be the key one but let's see how the rest of this season unfolds.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#215 Postby Ntxw » Sat Aug 27, 2016 5:54 pm

tolakram wrote:I still am unsure about this year and agree 2017 might be telling but we might be looking at another el nino as well. I always thought this season would get started in September and we aren't there yet.


With the Nina unable to take off, would it be possible to consider that on a larger scale a more inactive era would indeed include more El Ninos? Such as the late 80s and early 90s.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#216 Postby Alyono » Sat Aug 27, 2016 7:44 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:Well here we are on August 27th just a couple weeks away from the peak of the season with a named storm that is struggling to become a hurricane again after doing so for just one advisory, as well as two invests that do not look too promising when it comes to tropical development due to unfavorable conditions, and an area of disturbed weather in the NW GoM expected to move inland with no development due to unfavorable conditions and proximity to land.

Just by seeing this one has to wonder are we really still in the active era that the Atlantic has been in since 1995? It's still too soon to say but we should know more by the end of this season or at the very latest the end of the 2017 season. My amateur guess is currently we are no longer in it but others have also stated that this active era is known for it's lack of slow or dead seasons so it may take a few more years to really know if it just and downward spike before ramping up again or is this really the end.

There is a chance we could see a long tracking Cape Verde hurricane coming off Africa Wednesday according to the GFS & Euro but we shall see since original thoughts were that Gaston too would have been one of those type of storms which we have not seen in the Atlantic in YEARS.


being in the quiet phase makes far more sense if you consider the active cycle to have started in 1985, 10 years before the commonly accepted date. Since 1985, the only dead seasons were either el niño seasons, or the 1992 cool neutral, very warm water in the MDR season
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#217 Postby centuryv58 » Sat Aug 27, 2016 8:34 pm

Not sure anyone can know this now. Dr. Phil K tries and makes some guesses on this topic, some of which turn out wrong. I believe this question is just outside the limits of accepted physics and meteorological science. But we can keep this thread going with speculation and home grown theories for probably another 5+ years. :D
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#218 Postby gigabite » Sat Aug 27, 2016 9:39 pm

Image
It has been said that "hind casting" with analog years has a relatively high success coeficient.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#219 Postby gigabite » Sat Aug 27, 2016 9:54 pm

centuryv58 wrote:Not sure anyone can know this now. Dr. Phil K tries and makes some guesses on this topic, some of which turn out wrong. I believe this question is just outside the limits of accepted physics and meteorological science. But we can keep this thread going with speculation and home grown theories for probably another 5+ years. :D


Is this excepting "Farmers Almanac?"
Computer science lets us split hairs on the directly measurable, it is trouble having trouble with intuition;
* not to mention relative fluid dynamics,
* algebraic topology
* and bifurcation theory.
We just haven't got a handle on the three body problem, with out the aide of direct gravitational measurement,
as E = 1.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#220 Postby wxmann_91 » Wed Sep 07, 2016 4:20 pm

Yes.

2010 seems to be a pretty good demarcation between the last active era and this quiet one.
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