Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

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Ntxw
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#321 Postby Ntxw » Wed May 23, 2018 9:22 am

WeatherEmperor wrote:
NotSparta wrote::uarrow:

I agree, it's completely due to the atmosphere. It can all be explained by mostly atmospheric processes, which is not how an era of -AMO starts. The cool MDR is due to the strong trades induced by +NAO. The subtropical warm pool is due to high pressure, like the EPAC "warm blob" in 2014. The cold pool in the far NATL is due to both the persistent +NAO and the persistent Baffin Bay trough, that being caused by the weakening of the polar vortex. The Baffin BAY trough is also helping to keep +NAO around


How much longer do you think this +NAO will last? If you do see it lasting through the peak of the season, do you think it could pose a problem with tropical systems getting blocked from recurving and posing more of a threat to the SE coast?


It is hard to say. When a signature SSTa pattern is created, feedback from it becomes difficult to change unless something larger displaces it. A period of -NAO won't reverse it, you need months of net -NAO to reverse. Atmospheric patterns come and go but SSTa patterns are harder to change longterm.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#322 Postby NotSparta » Wed May 23, 2018 10:46 am

Ntxw wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:
NotSparta wrote::uarrow:

I agree, it's completely due to the atmosphere. It can all be explained by mostly atmospheric processes, which is not how an era of -AMO starts. The cool MDR is due to the strong trades induced by +NAO. The subtropical warm pool is due to high pressure, like the EPAC "warm blob" in 2014. The cold pool in the far NATL is due to both the persistent +NAO and the persistent Baffin Bay trough, that being caused by the weakening of the polar vortex. The Baffin BAY trough is also helping to keep +NAO around


How much longer do you think this +NAO will last? If you do see it lasting through the peak of the season, do you think it could pose a problem with tropical systems getting blocked from recurving and posing more of a threat to the SE coast?


It is hard to say. When a signature SSTa pattern is created, feedback from it becomes difficult to change unless something larger displaces it. A period of -NAO won't reverse it, you need months of net -NAO to reverse. Atmospheric patterns come and go but SSTa patterns are harder to change longterm.



Just like the winter reversal, took a couple months of that +NAO to get rid of the record warm MDR SSTs. The only way it could reverse within a month is with a record -NAO, like in March. However, it only lasted a couple of weeks and never reversed the pattern fully
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This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for tropical systems, or http://www.weather.gov for general meteorology related stuff.

Also, I am not Sparta :lol:

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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#323 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 23, 2018 11:08 am

cycloneye wrote:The active period from 1995 ended more early than expected or not? This is an important question that requires plenty of analysis and discussions as things have not been too favorable in the North Atlantic (Especially in MDR) in the past few seasons after an active 2010. So pro mets and amateours come and let's discuss about this important topic.


The above quote is the first post of this thread.Thanks to all who have posted discussions about this very important topic question in the past 4 years as it has been very interesting and at the same time have revealed some things that many peeps dont know about all the factors involved in all of this. Let's keep it going folks as things are unclear in 2018 about this question.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#324 Postby StruThiO » Wed May 23, 2018 4:31 pm

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