When will the multi-decade active era that began in 1995 end?

[znel52]

I honestly don't really buy into the whole active/inactive phase. In reality we only have 40-50 years of accurate data to go off of. I consider anything before the satellite era dubious. There is just too much possibility for error such as storms that were missed and never named and storms that were named that maybe shouldn't have been. The numbers for these seasons could be greatly skewed in either direction. These storms have been forming for 1000s of years. I don't see how we can draw a conclusion on these 'phases' with the minute amount of reliable data we have. In my opinion we just don't have a large enough sample size to make such a claim.

PSA- I am just a guy who takes an interest in the weather. I have no background in meteorology. Don't bash me too hard for my opinion lol.

[TheStormExpert]

Thought I'd bump this up because Ryan Maue has an interesting and disturbing point. Hopefully we are not heading for another 1932/1933 repeat. With this seasons ACE already meeting NOAA's definition of an "Extremely Active" season I don't think the active era is over. In fact I'm really going to be watching now to see if next year is just as active or even more depending on the state of the ENSO. i remember someone on here saying that a good precursor to the hyper-active 1933 & 2005 seasons was seasons that featured high impacts, would this season be considered one of those?

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/910464208420122624




 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/910465311685693441




 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/910465801601323008

[CyclonicFury]

Now that 2016 and 2017 both had 140+ ACE (and 2017 has more ACE than any season of the 1970-94 inactive phase) I think it's increasingly clear that the active era is not over and 2013-15 was just a brief quiet time in an overall active phase. Another thing to note is official AMO values have been fairly solidly positive except for a few brief negative values in the winter which doesn't really impact the overall season.

[Patrick99]

Yeah, based on what we are now seeing, I suppose the answer to this question is a resounding no. I'm guessing the previous couple of seasons were merely plagued by dry air and/or shear, and that there was no significant change to the overall "active phase" we've been in since 95. If you look at the last active phase, not every season within it was hyper-active with a bunch of majors. I don't remember seeing any season similar to this within the last inactive phase, though

[CyclonicFury]

Yeah, based on what we are now seeing, I suppose the answer to this question is a resounding no. I'm guessing the previous couple of seasons were merely plagued by dry air and/or shear, and that there was no significant change to the overall "active phase" we've been in since 95. If you look at the last active phase, not every season within it was hyper-active with a bunch of majors. I don't remember seeing any season similar to this within the last inactive phase, though

Really, there probably wouldn't be nearly this much speculation of the active era being over if it wasn't for 2013, which would have likely been above average if it wasn't for the unexpected weakening of the thermoaine circulation. 2014, 2015, and perhaps the first half of 2016 were suppressed by El Niño or lingering El Niño effects, yet ACE totals weren't that far below normal (both above 60). I think if we were in a quiet phase, we would not see the MDR nearly as warm as it has been the past two seasons.

Assuming the active era isn't over, there's always the possibility we are going to transition into the inactive era soon. Exactly when will be very difficult to predict. I wonder if what we are seeing is like the 1960s, several active and hyperactive seasons mixed along with quiet seasons before a more serious flip comes in about 5-10 years.

[ronjon]

Yeah, based on what we are now seeing, I suppose the answer to this question is a resounding no. I'm guessing the previous couple of seasons were merely plagued by dry air and/or shear, and that there was no significant change to the overall "active phase" we've been in since 95. If you look at the last active phase, not every season within it was hyper-active with a bunch of majors. I don't remember seeing any season similar to this within the last inactive phase, though

Really, there probably wouldn't be nearly this much speculation of the active era being over if it wasn't for 2013, which would have likely been above average if it wasn't for the unexpected weakening of the thermoaine circulation. 2014, 2015, and perhaps the first half of 2016 were suppressed by El Niño or lingering El Niño effects, yet ACE totals weren't that far below normal (both above 60). I think if we were in a quiet phase, we would not see the MDR nearly as warm as it has been the past two seasons.

Assuming the active era isn't over, there's always the possibility we are going to transition into the inactive era soon. Exactly when will be very difficult to predict. I wonder if what we are seeing is like the 1960s, several active and hyperactive seasons mixed along with quiet seasons before a more serious flip comes in about 5-10 years.

Could be but the previous warm active period lasted about 45 years (1925-1970). i read a paper that suggested it'll last till 2030 or so. Again, a lot of the past history is based on a relatively short record of sea surface temp observations (150 years or so) although proxy data such as tree ring analysis or ice core isotope data suggests we've had this AMO pattern for several thousand years. Also major hurricane activity is up dramatically post-1995 in the atlantic basin compared with the previous cool phase (1970-1995) - its just that major hurricane landfalls are lower than the previous warm period. Persistent east coast troughing has spared the US the brunt of the increased major hurricane activity post-1995. is that about to change?

[Yellow Evan]

I think we're seeing both an active EPAc and ATL phase. +PDO doesn't really affect the WPAC in terms of storm count and not sure if I've seen a coherent active phase elsewhere- although the AUS has been really quiet lately.

[weathaguyry]

Nope.

[AxaltaRacing24]

N
O
P
E

Crazy how just last year during mid-season we were discussing in depth how the active era might have come to an end. However 2017 and the end of 2016 have given us the clear answer to that question.

[Andrew92]

At this point, I will believe it's over if the Atlantic cools significantly. Like maybe if temperature anomalies are similar to those of the 1970s and 1980s. Another kicker would be a year like 2016, coming after an El Nino subsides, without a powerful hurricane in the tropical latitudes (exhibit A: 1973).

Even if you don't think 2014 was a full-blown El Nino, there were at least localized conditions similar to most El Nino events. That goes along with 2015 then becoming more like the real thing. And 2013, which preceded this? Well, it had been an abnormally long time since the last El Nino, and I have to wonder if that prolonged period without the Pacific warming led to an overall stabilizing of the atmosphere. Ergo, although other conditions might have been alright, the overall dry atmosphere squelched any real chances of significant storms.

That admittedly is just my own theory. But can you imagine the irony? The Atlantic actually needing an occasional El Nino to have more favorable conditions for hurricanes in the seasons to come, even though El Nino means (unless maybe it's a Modoki) quite hostile conditions while it's in place. Yet, I wouldn't be surprised if that's the case.

-Andrew92

[JPmia]

Yeah, based on what we are now seeing, I suppose the answer to this question is a resounding no. I'm guessing the previous couple of seasons were merely plagued by dry air and/or shear, and that there was no significant change to the overall "active phase" we've been in since 95. If you look at the last active phase, not every season within it was hyper-active with a bunch of majors. I don't remember seeing any season similar to this within the last inactive phase, though

Really, there probably wouldn't be nearly this much speculation of the active era being over if it wasn't for 2013, which would have likely been above average if it wasn't for the unexpected weakening of the thermoaine circulation. 2014, 2015, and perhaps the first half of 2016 were suppressed by El Niño or lingering El Niño effects, yet ACE totals weren't that far below normal (both above 60). I think if we were in a quiet phase, we would not see the MDR nearly as warm as it has been the past two seasons.

Assuming the active era isn't over, there's always the possibility we are going to transition into the inactive era soon. Exactly when will be very difficult to predict. I wonder if what we are seeing is like the 1960s, several active and hyperactive seasons mixed along with quiet seasons before a more serious flip comes in about 5-10 years.

Could be but the previous warm active period lasted about 45 years (1925-1970). i read a paper that suggested it'll last till 2030 or so. Again, a lot of the past history is based on a relatively short record of sea surface temp observations (150 years or so) although proxy data such as tree ring analysis or ice core isotope data suggests we've had this AMO pattern for several thousand years. Also major hurricane activity is up dramatically post-1995 in the atlantic basin compared with the previous cool phase (1970-1995) - its just that major hurricane landfalls are lower than the previous warm period. Persistent east coast troughing has spared the US the brunt of the increased major hurricane activity post-1995. is that about to change?

Yeah, based on what I've read, it looks like the active phase could continue until 2025-2030. If you look at the AMO active/inactive phase charts in those studies you see that not every year is above average and there are some multi-year periods that feature inactive seasons similar to 2013-2015. Big question is will we see a repeat of the 1940s style seasons that we saw in the last active phase.

[TheStormExpert]

Really, there probably wouldn't be nearly this much speculation of the active era being over if it wasn't for 2013, which would have likely been above average if it wasn't for the unexpected weakening of the thermoaine circulation. 2014, 2015, and perhaps the first half of 2016 were suppressed by El Niño or lingering El Niño effects, yet ACE totals weren't that far below normal (both above 60). I think if we were in a quiet phase, we would not see the MDR nearly as warm as it has been the past two seasons.

Assuming the active era isn't over, there's always the possibility we are going to transition into the inactive era soon. Exactly when will be very difficult to predict. I wonder if what we are seeing is like the 1960s, several active and hyperactive seasons mixed along with quiet seasons before a more serious flip comes in about 5-10 years.

Could be but the previous warm active period lasted about 45 years (1925-1970). i read a paper that suggested it'll last till 2030 or so. Again, a lot of the past history is based on a relatively short record of sea surface temp observations (150 years or so) although proxy data such as tree ring analysis or ice core isotope data suggests we've had this AMO pattern for several thousand years. Also major hurricane activity is up dramatically post-1995 in the atlantic basin compared with the previous cool phase (1970-1995) - its just that major hurricane landfalls are lower than the previous warm period. Persistent east coast troughing has spared the US the brunt of the increased major hurricane activity post-1995. is that about to change?

Yeah, based on what I've read, it looks like the active phase could continue until 2025-2030. If you look at the AMO active/inactive phase charts in those studies you see that not every year is above average and there are some multi-year periods that feature inactive seasons similar to 2013-2015. Big question is will we see a repeat of the 1940s style seasons that we saw in the last active phase.

Yeah Wxman57 mentioned a few years back that this active period since 1995 had featured no inactive years like we saw in 2013-2015. I’m guessing things have trending back up since last season and may stay active for the Atlantic for a handful more years.

[SFLcane]

I say a big fat "NO" to active era ending.................... Look for 2018 to be another very busy year.

[AtlanticWind]

With a changing climate I don't know if we can even look to past
for these cycles anymore.

[chaser1]

Nope.

"ditto"

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Hopefully we can put this to rest for a few years. There was never any evidence that the active era ended, just premature statements based on a faltering ENSO.

[CyclonicFury]

Hopefully we can put this to rest for a few years. There was never any evidence that the active era ended, just premature statements based on a faltering ENSO.

2013 was a weird anomaly year, 2014 and 2015 were El Niño or had El Niño like conditions, and the early part of the 2016 season was likely suppressed by lingering El Niño effects. 2017 is going to have over 200 ACE and could finish with 6-7 major hurricanes which is rare for a season even in an active era.

Considering how warm the tropical Atlantic has been this season and how active the last two Atlantic seasons have been, any claims that we are in a negative AMO now make no sense whatsoever. I think we should see higher pre-season forecast totals next season unless El Niño is a possibility. Klotzbach's numbers were too low for three seasons in a row because the AMO is still positive unlike he thought.

[Ryxn]

https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/ ... -season%2F

Paints a scary picture for October

[NotSparta]

...and looks like AMO has sunk again. We'll see what it does, it could change, but if the active phase really did end that would be ironic

[StruThiO]

and all current tropicaltidbits analogs are pre 1995 cold era. In terms of ACE, only 1989 was above normal. Interesting imo though I know things can change.