Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
WeatherEmperor
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4407
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
Location: South Florida

Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#301 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Mar 26, 2018 6:44 pm

NotSparta wrote:...and looks like AMO has sunk again. We'll see what it does, it could change, but if the active phase really did end that would be ironic


If the AMO goes down, does it mean active or inactive Atlantic season?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
1 likes   

User avatar
NotSparta
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 721
Age: 17
Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
Location: Between Toronto and Naples, FL
Contact:

Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#302 Postby NotSparta » Mon Mar 26, 2018 6:48 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
NotSparta wrote:...and looks like AMO has sunk again. We'll see what it does, it could change, but if the active phase really did end that would be ironic


If the AMO goes down, does it mean active or inactive Atlantic season?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


-AMO usually means a less active hurricane season, and for multiple decades usually, though there can be strong seasons. Keeping an eye on it, could rise again
0 likes   
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for tropical systems, or http://www.weather.gov for general meteorology related stuff.

Also, I am not Sparta :lol:

User avatar
StruThiO
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 285
Age: 18
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:51 am
Location: Currently Portland, OR. Raised in Jax, FL.

Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#303 Postby StruThiO » Mon Mar 26, 2018 10:54 pm

Just to emphasize

Image

this was the pattern one year ago today. Although the current signature looks more like -AMO than last year imo we know how active last year was. So as :uarrow: said we just need to watch thru april and may.
3 likes   

User avatar
CyclonicFury
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 610
Age: 19
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
Location: NC
Contact:

Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#304 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue Mar 27, 2018 8:03 am

StruThiO wrote:Just to emphasize

Image

this was the pattern one year ago today. Although the current signature looks more like -AMO than last year imo we know how active last year was. So as :uarrow: said we just need to watch thru april and may.

I think it is premature to say the active era may be over just because the Atlantic has a -AMO look today. There have been some seasons in the active era with a -AMO look anyway. 2000 is an example.
3 likes   
NCSU meteorology student and weather blogger at www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.

User avatar
StruThiO
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 285
Age: 18
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:51 am
Location: Currently Portland, OR. Raised in Jax, FL.

Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#305 Postby StruThiO » Tue Mar 27, 2018 8:09 am

CyclonicFury wrote:I think it is premature to say the active era may be over just because the Atlantic has a -AMO look today.


Yeah, I agree completely. Plus the atlantic seems to like doing this before reversing itself in may or so the last few years. It will probably change but I still find it interesting enough to post about.
2 likes   

User avatar
CyclonicFury
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 610
Age: 19
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
Location: NC
Contact:

Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#306 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue Mar 27, 2018 8:25 am

StruThiO wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:I think it is premature to say the active era may be over just because the Atlantic has a -AMO look today.


Yeah, I agree completely. Plus the atlantic seems to like doing this before reversing itself in may or so the last few years. It will probably change but I still find it interesting enough to post about.

This has really thrown off April forecasts since 2015, in addition to ENSO uncertainty. I’m interested to see what happens to the Atlantic SST profile in April and May.
2 likes   
NCSU meteorology student and weather blogger at www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 18136
Age: 61
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#307 Postby wxman57 » Tue Mar 27, 2018 10:55 am

I plotted the AMO 1950-2018 using Klotzbach's new method, which precludes calculating it prior to 1950 due to missing surface pressure data. It is starting to look like the warm AMO may be ending. Certainly, recent years have been a good bit cooler. The plot below includes data through February, 2018.

Image
4 likes   

User avatar
CyclonicFury
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 610
Age: 19
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
Location: NC
Contact:

Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#308 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue Mar 27, 2018 11:20 am

wxman57 wrote:I plotted the AMO 1950-2018 using Klotzbach's new method, which precludes calculating it prior to 1950 due to missing surface pressure data. It is starting to look like the warm AMO may be ending. Certainly, recent years have been a good bit cooler. The plot below includes data through February, 2018.

http://wxman57.com/images/AMO.jpg

Considering how active 2017 was (and even 2016 to an extent), I am beginning to think this index does not take MDR SSTAs into account enough. If I remember correctly it has been based primarily on tropical Atlantic SLP and far North Atlantic SSTA.
1 likes   
NCSU meteorology student and weather blogger at www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 18136
Age: 61
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#309 Postby wxman57 » Tue Mar 27, 2018 11:29 am

2017 was a warm AMO during the hurricane season except for July.

1 2017 -0.58
2 2017 0.08
3 2017 -0.61
4 2017 -0.81
5 2017 0.22
6 2017 0.06
7 2017 -0.89
8 2017 0
9 2017 0.31
10 2017 0.16
11 2017 0.39
12 2017 0.33
1 2018 -0.61
2 2018 -1.29
4 likes   

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5513
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#310 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Apr 05, 2018 3:44 pm

If 2018 fails to be active like some are saying I’d say the active era has ended. It’s likely been over for awhile now and 2017 was probably just a random spike up in overall Atlantic activity.
2 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
StruThiO
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 285
Age: 18
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:51 am
Location: Currently Portland, OR. Raised in Jax, FL.

Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#311 Postby StruThiO » Thu Apr 05, 2018 4:12 pm

:uarrow: I respectfully disagree. The last few seasons were either el nino'd or the thc collapsed. I think a few more years will be needed to answer this question conclusively.
2 likes   

User avatar
NotSparta
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 721
Age: 17
Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
Location: Between Toronto and Naples, FL
Contact:

Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#312 Postby NotSparta » Thu Apr 05, 2018 4:33 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:If 2018 fails to be active like some are saying I’d say the active era has ended. It’s likely been over for awhile now and 2017 was probably just a random spike up in overall Atlantic activity.


I also respectfully disagree, 2017 was more active than any inactive era seasons. There's a possibility that it ended, but it didn't end before last year, imo. Remember, AMO and MDR SSTAs seem to drop during the winter and rebound in spring too. That's what's been happening the past few years
1 likes   
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for tropical systems, or http://www.weather.gov for general meteorology related stuff.

Also, I am not Sparta :lol:

User avatar
Macrocane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4214
Age: 29
Joined: Sun May 24, 2009 5:35 pm
Location: El Salvador

Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#313 Postby Macrocane » Thu Apr 12, 2018 11:10 am

Also, don't forget 2016, it was pretty active with 4 major hurricanes, including cat 5 Matthew.
3 likes   

User avatar
CyclonicFury
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 610
Age: 19
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
Location: NC
Contact:

Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#314 Postby CyclonicFury » Thu Apr 12, 2018 11:12 am

Macrocane wrote:Also, don't forget 2016, it was pretty active with 4 major hurricanes, including cat 5 Matthew.

2017 has made a lot of people forget how active 2016 was. 2016 wasn’t nearly as destructive as 2017, but was still definitely an active season, at least compared to the 1970s-early 1990s.
3 likes   
NCSU meteorology student and weather blogger at www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.

User avatar
NotSparta
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 721
Age: 17
Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
Location: Between Toronto and Naples, FL
Contact:

Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#315 Postby NotSparta » Thu Apr 12, 2018 11:45 am

CyclonicFury wrote:
Macrocane wrote:Also, don't forget 2016, it was pretty active with 4 major hurricanes, including cat 5 Matthew.

2017 has made a lot of people forget how active 2016 was. 2016 wasn’t nearly as destructive as 2017, but was still definitely an active season, at least compared to the 1970s-early 1990s.


However, iirc, seasons like 2016 are possible during cool AMO eras, but 2017 was way outside that margin disproving the argument.
0 likes   
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for tropical systems, or http://www.weather.gov for general meteorology related stuff.

Also, I am not Sparta :lol:

User avatar
NotSparta
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 721
Age: 17
Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
Location: Between Toronto and Naples, FL
Contact:

Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#316 Postby NotSparta » Wed May 23, 2018 8:11 am

Just bumping the thread, looks like some are thinking it has.
0 likes   
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for tropical systems, or http://www.weather.gov for general meteorology related stuff.

Also, I am not Sparta :lol:

User avatar
weathaguyry
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1184
Age: 15
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:16 am
Location: Sandy Devastation Area, NY

Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#317 Postby weathaguyry » Wed May 23, 2018 8:21 am

I personally don't think it has, because the -AMO look has been caused solely from the +NAO, once the NAO flips to negative, the pattern will likely start to reverse

Image
1 likes   
My posts are only my opinions and NOT official forecasts. For official forecasts, consult the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service.

Irene 11', Sandy 12'

User avatar
NotSparta
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 721
Age: 17
Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
Location: Between Toronto and Naples, FL
Contact:

Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#318 Postby NotSparta » Wed May 23, 2018 8:38 am

:uarrow:

I agree, it's completely due to the atmosphere. It can all be explained by mostly atmospheric processes, which is not how an era of -AMO starts. The cool MDR is due to the strong trades induced by +NAO. The subtropical warm pool is due to high pressure, like the EPAC "warm blob" in 2014. The cold pool in the far NATL is due to both the persistent +NAO and the persistent Baffin Bay trough, that being caused by the weakening of the polar vortex. The Baffin BAY trough is also helping to keep +NAO around
1 likes   
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for tropical systems, or http://www.weather.gov for general meteorology related stuff.

Also, I am not Sparta :lol:

User avatar
CyclonicFury
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 610
Age: 19
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
Location: NC
Contact:

Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#319 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed May 23, 2018 9:05 am

I don't know why we are talking about the active era ending when last year was way more active than any year from 1970-94 and had over 200 ACE. :lol:

But seriously, this -AMO SST profile could easily change with a prolonged -NAO. Let's wait to see if the Atlantic is actually quiet first.
1 likes   
NCSU meteorology student and weather blogger at www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.

WeatherEmperor
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4407
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
Location: South Florida

Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#320 Postby WeatherEmperor » Wed May 23, 2018 9:17 am

NotSparta wrote::uarrow:

I agree, it's completely due to the atmosphere. It can all be explained by mostly atmospheric processes, which is not how an era of -AMO starts. The cool MDR is due to the strong trades induced by +NAO. The subtropical warm pool is due to high pressure, like the EPAC "warm blob" in 2014. The cold pool in the far NATL is due to both the persistent +NAO and the persistent Baffin Bay trough, that being caused by the weakening of the polar vortex. The Baffin BAY trough is also helping to keep +NAO around


How much longer do you think this +NAO will last? If you do see it lasting through the peak of the season, do you think it could pose a problem with tropical systems getting blocked from recurving and posing more of a threat to the SE coast?
1 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 11 guests