When will the multi-decade active era that began in 1995 end?

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Hammy
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#341 Postby Hammy » Mon Sep 10, 2018 4:34 pm

Shell Mound wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:Doesn't look like it with what we are seeing right now.

Yeah, most of the activity has been in the deep tropics, sure doesn't seem like a -AMO year

Impressively, four of the five hurricanes in 2018 have reached hurricane status in the MDR: Beryl, Florence, Helene, and Isaac.


I had actually suspected with Beryl that the MDR would be more active than people thought, but the six weeks of little activity that followed annihilated my thinking on that.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#342 Postby EquusStorm » Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:22 am

It's funny how this comes up literally every time we have a break in active storms or a season that's less than hyperactive. I imagine this discussion was around in 1997 and 2002 on an IRC network somewhere, too, and yet here we are
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#343 Postby StruThiO » Thu Sep 13, 2018 10:46 pm

Unless a rather harsh season shutdown occurs..

Here we are with nearly 75 ace and September isn't even halfway over...

...with record cold June MDR ssts..3rd highest Caribbean wind shear (trailing 2015 and 2002)..and consistently positive PV streamer anomalies..

I am going to go out on a limb and say NO.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#344 Postby Hammy » Fri Sep 14, 2018 1:34 am

EquusStorm wrote:It's funny how this comes up literally every time we have a break in active storms or a season that's less than hyperactive. I imagine this discussion was around in 1997 and 2002 on an IRC network somewhere, too, and yet here we are


This honestly makes me wish this site existed back in 1995. It would've been interesting to see the reactions during the first half of August of 1996/98/99 as well, and even years like 2001 where the season really didn't take off until the second week of September.

More to the topic, a few years ago someone (possibly wxman57) pointed out that most active periods had non-Nino dips in the AMO (short 2-3 year dips), and up until a few years ago this active period was unique that it hadn't yet.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#345 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Fri Sep 14, 2018 6:27 am

Random question, but can the Atlantic active phase coincide with the Eastern Pacific active phase? Four out of the past five seasons in the EPac have had above-normal ACEs. 2014 (?), 2015, and 2018 have approached or exceeded 200 units of ACE.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#346 Postby NDG » Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:25 am

After last year this argument should had been over with whether the active era was over not, it does not happen overnight.
This year is a good example that is not over yet, a lot of pros were using non-active years as an analog years for their forecast this year which clearly was a big bust.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#347 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Sep 14, 2018 8:28 am

NDG wrote:After last year this argument should had been over with whether the active era was over not, it does not happen overnight.
This year is a good example that is not over yet, a lot of pros were using non-active years as an analog years for their forecast this year which clearly was a big bust.

Not saying it’s not a bust in a way, but how is it exactly a big bust? We’ve only had one major hurricane and will likely go the rest of the month without another. Not to mention things should be much quieter the second half of September. October has yet to be seen though, and there yet more talk of potentially another burst of activity.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#348 Postby CyclonicFury » Fri Sep 14, 2018 11:50 am

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:Random question, but can the Atlantic active phase coincide with the Eastern Pacific active phase? Four out of the past five seasons in the EPac have had above-normal ACEs. 2014 (?), 2015, and 2018 have approached or exceeded 200 units of ACE.

I think both the Atlantic and EPAC are currently in their active phase.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#349 Postby NDG » Fri Sep 14, 2018 12:25 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
NDG wrote:After last year this argument should had been over with whether the active era was over not, it does not happen overnight.
This year is a good example that is not over yet, a lot of pros were using non-active years as an analog years for their forecast this year which clearly was a big bust.

Not saying it’s not a bust in a way, but how is it exactly a big bust? We’ve only had one major hurricane and will likely go the rest of the month without another. Not to mention things should be much quieter the second half of September. October has yet to be seen though, and there yet more talk of potentially another burst of activity.


The reason why I am saying it has been a big bust is because many pro-mets put too much emphasis on analog years from the non-active era into their equation for their seasonal forecast. I was told by a pro-met on twitter that 2002 was not a good analog year to use because it was during the active era which he thinks it is over.
Had the active era would had ended by now this year would had ended up like 1986 with such a "cool" MDR and high shear over the Caribbean.
Everything is pointing out to activity to continue through October so this year has a good chance of ending up to be at least an average hurricane season.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#350 Postby CyclonicFury » Fri Sep 14, 2018 12:41 pm

You hear a lot about SST anomalies being the main part of the AMO but I think the west African monsoon has something to do with it too. In recent years, the west African monsoon has been stronger than normal, and this is keeping the MDR fairly active even though many of the MDR storms this decade have been weak. 2000, 2002, 2015, and now 2018 all had a fairly cool MDR and were not that quiet.

Unless the African monsoon is significantly weaker than normal, I don't expect activity like we saw in the past inactive phase for a while.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#351 Postby Macrocane » Tue Oct 09, 2018 11:01 pm

After the last few weeks I think it's fair to say that the active period has not ended, it seems that 2013-2015 was only a pause in the +AMO phase. What I find weird is that the EPAC has entered in an active period too as we were discussing before.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#352 Postby StruThiO » Tue Oct 09, 2018 11:11 pm

Nope. Man, meteorology is hard lol
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#353 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 10, 2018 2:58 pm

By any means it has not ended.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#354 Postby KWT » Wed Oct 10, 2018 4:18 pm

Not yet, though I think hink we maybe getting closer.

What is almost certainly true though us the EPAC has switched back on again, 4 out of the last 5 have been above, 2015 and 2018 both in top 3;seasons for ACE, clearly that basin has flipped and usually when one turns on, the other turns off ..
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#355 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:10 pm

2018 has now met the NOAA definition of an above average season. 2016 and 2017 both also satisfied this definition, the latter of which was hyperactive with about 224 ACE. Not ONE season in the last quiet era (1970-94) met this definition that has been met three years in a row.

It has not ended. Unless we see two consecutive non-El Nino years with below average activity, I think we have our answer to this question for now. There appears to be more to the active/inactive era than just SST anomalies, as 2000 had a cooler than normal MDR much of the year as well and ended above average.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#356 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:12 pm

Emmett_Brown wrote:This year certainly will be interesting. Probably some of the coolest ATL MDR temps since the latest active era started in '95. If we still end up having an above average season even with the cool MDR, then there will be some interesting research papers coming up I'm sure.

It's going to be very interesting to see what the experts say caused 2018's above average activity despite a near El Nino and significantly cooler than normal MDR SSTs during the majority of the early season.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#357 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:19 pm

The Atlantic SST configuration has definitely taken on a +AMO look since August. About a 180° flip when compared to the start of the season where a -AMO look was present. Could this be why the Atlantic was able to manage to become an above average season?

Image
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#358 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sat Oct 13, 2018 7:54 pm

Both 2017 and 2018 were very destructive years, well in excess of expectations. 2018 is not over yet. Active era has not ended, not even remotely. It’s easy to lull oneself into a sense of belief that a season will not have much activity, especially during the quieter month of July. Surprises occur in both directions; 2006 and 2009 were quiter; 2013 has no nino but was quieter. In 2006 and 2013 many included myself expected a very active year. Getting back to the main topic of this thread, however, it is obvious that our active era is not over, despite the strong signs from Ssts and other factors illustrating that it was potentially over earlier this year. We have a lot to learn about tropical meteorology.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#359 Postby NotSparta » Sat Oct 13, 2018 8:24 pm

Even the SSTs look much less -AMO than lately

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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#360 Postby StruThiO » Sat Oct 13, 2018 8:27 pm

:uarrow:

Just LOOK at the difference between the start of the season and now. Nearly a 180 flip
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