When will the multi-decade active era that began in 1995 end?

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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#381 Postby gigabite » Fri May 08, 2020 5:18 pm

Image

I took the database posted by TheAustinMan and blended it with the New Moon database. The scatterplot I posted showed a bifurcation either side of East 100. I took the top 20 high ACE years 10 East of East 100 and 10 West of it and totaled the ACE for each 5 degree cells. They look a little different. The west side had more storm frequency the east side had stronger storms the bottom line is that difference between more storms and stronger storms is about 3% more energy comes fewer but stronger storms which agrees with the same data split over the new 1944 to 2019 database which showed a 4.5% increase across the East 100 degree meridian.

The conclusion is that at this resolution there is a consistency between the versions showing hot spots along the carolinas, Louisiana, Delaware, and the Virgin Islands. Florida is relatively tame considering iit is right in the middle of things.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#382 Postby gigabite » Sun May 10, 2020 4:16 pm

Image
This is the next iteration of the 5 degree ACE Map. Remember this classification is trained on the New Moon
at Aphelion East of 100 degrees East of the prime meridian. The top nine storms since 1944. The sum of the
ace for the square is 80 ACE for 10 years. 2017 was the biggest contributor.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#383 Postby Shell Mound » Tue May 12, 2020 8:41 am

 https://twitter.com/ATXHarrisonTran/status/1258491533436899329



Interestingly, note how the “active” 1990s, 2000s, and 2010s have generated less ACE over the mainland U.S. than the inactive 1970s-1980s.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#384 Postby TheAustinMan » Tue May 12, 2020 10:23 am

Shell Mound wrote:Interestingly, note how the “active” 1990s, 2000s, and 2010s have generated less ACE over the mainland U.S. than the inactive 1970s-1980s.


I should probably note a clarification for that graphic. The shading for each decade is relative to that decade only, and indicates where high intensity activity was concentrated in that decade. You can see in the 1970s and 1980s that the shading is all over the place, which suggests that activity in those decades wasn't really concentrated in any particular spot (though you can make the case that 1970s activity was weighted towards the Gulf and subtropics). By comparison the 2000s had a strong focus of activity in the western Caribbean and Gulf, while the 2010s had a broad focus on the Sargasso Sea.

It's not necessarily that the 1990s-2010s have less ACE over the mainland US than the 1970s-1980s, but rather that activity in the 1970s-1980s was more weighted toward the U.S.

I'll post a graphic later today that compares the overall activity of the decades directly.

-----
EDIT
Here's that other graphic. The inactivity of the 1970s and 1980s is apparent in this view. We can also see the most potent "activity hotspots" of the last 120 years... the Yucatan Channel in the 1910s (including the 1910 Cuba hurricane and the 1915 Galveston/New Orleans hurricanes), off the SE US in the 1950s (including Helene, Ione, and Hazel), and the Western Caribbean/Gulf of the 2000s (including Ivan, Katrina, Rita, Wilma, and Dean).

428 KB. Source: Created in QGIS myself using data from HURDAT.
Image
Last edited by TheAustinMan on Tue May 12, 2020 11:21 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#385 Postby gigabite » Tue May 12, 2020 11:00 am

TheAustinMan wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:Interestingly, note how the “active” 1990s, 2000s, and 2010s have generated less ACE over the mainland U.S. than the inactive 1970s-1980s.


I should probably note a clarification for that graphic. The shading for each decade is relative to that decade only, and indicates where high intensity activity was concentrated in that decade. You can see in the 1970s and 1980s that the shading is all over the place, which suggests that activity in those decades wasn't really concentrated in any particular spot (though you can make the case that 1970s activity was weighted towards the Gulf and subtropics). By comparison the 2000s had a strong focus of activity in the western Caribbean and Gulf, while the 2010s had a broad focus on the Sargasso Sea.

It's not necessarily that the 1990s-2010s have less ACE over the mainland US than the 1970s-1980s, but rather that activity in the 1970s-1980s was more weighted toward the U.S.

I'll post a graphic later today that compares the overall activity of the decades directly.


standardizing intensity is an issue, In my last attempt I totaled the values in the cells then in the legend I used the prediction color scheme and classified in manual integers of 15.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#386 Postby StruThiO » Thu May 21, 2020 10:31 am

from noaa's forecast issued today:
Also consistent with the warm AMO phase, two inter-related atmospheric features are now present and are expected to persist through ASO 2020. The first is anomalous westerly winds at 700-hPa across the central and eastern tropical Atlantic. The second is an enhanced West African monsoon system.

Image
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#387 Postby gigabite » Sat May 23, 2020 4:40 pm

TheAustinMan wrote:... intensity activity was concentrated in that decade. You can see in the 1970s and 1980s that the shading is all over the place, which suggests that activity in those decades wasn't really concentrated in any particular spot...

:eek: lots of work, thank you.
I think space time is a factor, I don't know maybe just time. what ever if you trim out the outlier 1970, classify by standard deviation, and a predictive shading you will get a different look.

Image

This an RSI using the wind speed every 6 hours
I'll have ro do this chart over. Looks like the window should move right more
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#388 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:45 am

If you had said 5 years ago that in 2020, the Atlantic would be at the V name on September 14, I don't think anyone would have believed you :lol:
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#389 Postby Nuno » Mon Sep 14, 2020 6:02 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:If you had said 5 years ago that in 2020, the Atlantic would be at the V name on September 14, I don't think anyone would have believed you :lol:


I was starting to buy the idea that the active phase was ending five years ago, looks like we may have a ways to go.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#390 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon Nov 02, 2020 11:53 am

2020 has tied 2005's record for the most named storms with 28, is tied with 1969 and 2010 for the second highest hurricane total, and is likely to end up with 5-6 major hurricanes (assuming Eta becomes a major and Zeta gets upgraded). 2020's ACE total is likely to end up above 150 as well, which no season in the last quiet phase reached.

2013-15 was just a blip in the active era. 2016-20 is arguably the most active 5 year stretch on record in the Atlantic. Crazy to see this after Dr. Klotzbach and others thought the active era was over 5 years ago.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#391 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Nov 02, 2020 2:13 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:2020 has tied 2005's record for the most named storms with 28, is tied with 1969 and 2010 for the second highest hurricane total, and is likely to end up with 5-6 major hurricanes (assuming Eta becomes a major and Zeta gets upgraded). 2020's ACE total is likely to end up above 150 as well, which no season in the last quiet phase reached.

2013-15 was just a blip in the active era. 2016-20 is arguably the most active 5 year stretch on record in the Atlantic. Crazy to see this after Dr. Klotzbach and others thought the active era was over 5 years ago.

Never would’ve thought we’d see a season rival 2005’s unprecedented nature so soon. Considering the last before 2005 was 1933 and that was before the satellite era you have to assume climate change is responsible for this happening so soon after the last.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#392 Postby canes92 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:12 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:2020 has tied 2005's record for the most named storms with 28, is tied with 1969 and 2010 for the second highest hurricane total, and is likely to end up with 5-6 major hurricanes (assuming Eta becomes a major and Zeta gets upgraded). 2020's ACE total is likely to end up above 150 as well, which no season in the last quiet phase reached.

2013-15 was just a blip in the active era. 2016-20 is arguably the most active 5 year stretch on record in the Atlantic. Crazy to see this after Dr. Klotzbach and others thought the active era was over 5 years ago.

Never would’ve thought we’d see a season rival 2005’s unprecedented nature so soon. Considering the last before 2005 was 1933 and that was before the satellite era you have to assume climate change is responsible for this happening so soon after the last.


2020 was a quantity over quality year. 2005 was a quality season.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#393 Postby Hammy » Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:33 pm

canes92 wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:2020 has tied 2005's record for the most named storms with 28, is tied with 1969 and 2010 for the second highest hurricane total, and is likely to end up with 5-6 major hurricanes (assuming Eta becomes a major and Zeta gets upgraded). 2020's ACE total is likely to end up above 150 as well, which no season in the last quiet phase reached.

2013-15 was just a blip in the active era. 2016-20 is arguably the most active 5 year stretch on record in the Atlantic. Crazy to see this after Dr. Klotzbach and others thought the active era was over 5 years ago.

Never would’ve thought we’d see a season rival 2005’s unprecedented nature so soon. Considering the last before 2005 was 1933 and that was before the satellite era you have to assume climate change is responsible for this happening so soon after the last.


2020 was a quantity over quality year. 2005 was a quality season.


This year seems more a backloaded season of extreme activity more than simple quantity over quality--ever since we hit October everything's exploding.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#394 Postby Blinhart » Mon Nov 02, 2020 10:32 pm

canes92 wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:2020 has tied 2005's record for the most named storms with 28, is tied with 1969 and 2010 for the second highest hurricane total, and is likely to end up with 5-6 major hurricanes (assuming Eta becomes a major and Zeta gets upgraded). 2020's ACE total is likely to end up above 150 as well, which no season in the last quiet phase reached.

2013-15 was just a blip in the active era. 2016-20 is arguably the most active 5 year stretch on record in the Atlantic. Crazy to see this after Dr. Klotzbach and others thought the active era was over 5 years ago.

Never would’ve thought we’d see a season rival 2005’s unprecedented nature so soon. Considering the last before 2005 was 1933 and that was before the satellite era you have to assume climate change is responsible for this happening so soon after the last.


2020 was a quantity over quality year. 2005 was a quality season.


I would be one to disagree with you.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#395 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Nov 02, 2020 11:04 pm

Blinhart wrote:
canes92 wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:Never would’ve thought we’d see a season rival 2005’s unprecedented nature so soon. Considering the last before 2005 was 1933 and that was before the satellite era you have to assume climate change is responsible for this happening so soon after the last.


2020 was a quantity over quality year. 2005 was a quality season.


I would be one to disagree with you.

I second that. October to now has made up for the vast majority of systems from May-September being weak and short-lived. Not to mention we nearly have a Cat.5 hurricane bearing down on Nicaragua in early November.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#396 Postby NorthieStangl » Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:51 am

This thread is so priceless!

2014: it had been quiet lately, haven't it?
2015: Another disappointing year. Maybe we just came out of the active phase?
2016: Oops, maybe we spoke too soon?
2017: Maybe that was just the last hurrah.
2018: No, we definitely haven't left the active phase! :eek:
2019: LEAVE THE BAHAMAS ALONE!!! :cry:
2020: P-p-lease stop, we got the hint in 2017! :double:
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#397 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:30 pm

NorthieStangl wrote:This thread is so priceless!

2014: it had been quiet lately, haven't it?
2015: Another disappointing year. Maybe we just came out of the active phase?
2016: Oops, maybe we spoke too soon?
2017: Maybe that was just the last hurrah.
2018: No, we definitely haven't left the active phase! :eek:
2019: LEAVE THE BAHAMAS ALONE!!! :cry:
2020: P-p-lease stop, we got the hint in 2017! :double:

Maybe the thread should be renamed to "When will the multi-decade active era that began in 1995 end?" :lol:
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#398 Postby WeatherHoon » Wed Nov 11, 2020 3:32 pm

Maybe we won't ever really see it end.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#399 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Nov 13, 2020 4:39 pm

WeatherHoon wrote:Maybe we won't ever really see it end.


Reanalysis might find the "inactive" period in the 1970-1994 era to be an illusion anyway.
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Re: Has the multi-decade active era since 1995 ended?

#400 Postby CyclonicFury » Fri Nov 13, 2020 4:45 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
WeatherHoon wrote:Maybe we won't ever really see it end.


Reanalysis might find the "inactive" period in the 1970-1994 era to be an illusion anyway.

I don't think it was an "illusion" since there was a substantial drop in hurricanes, major hurricanes and ACE during that time. Prior to reanalysis, not one season reached 150 ACE during that time, nor did any season exceed 3 major hurricanes.

I could see a slight boost in named storm totals though.
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