Tropical Wave east of Lesser Antilles (Is Invest 96L)

[Blown Away]

I think many of us amateurs are learning during these quiet seasons there are many factors besides SST that are critical for development... That being said, if something sneaks into the NW Caribbean, FL Straits, or Bahamas, the SST in those areas are screaming hot...

[ronjon]

Let's see what the 12z global suite shows - i think at the very least the models are hinting at some sort of development in the long term. Combined with climatology, its not a bad bet.

[Alyono]

GFS more aggressive in developing this. Shows a TD/TS in less than 48 hours

[canes04]

Agree Blown.

I was thinking the same thing a few days ago.
If something organized with good ULL support made it to this area, look out!!

I think NHC will make a significant jump in % at 2pm or 8pm. Still thinking the 2 areas will merge.

[wxman57]

GFS more aggressive in developing this. Shows a TD/TS in less than 48 hours

Something that's in the vicinity of 50W today. Different area than it was developing last night.

[Alyono]

GFS more aggressive in developing this. Shows a TD/TS in less than 48 hours

Something that's in the vicinity of 50W today. Different area than it was developing last night.

Just saw that.May not see a significant NHC jump until the models start developing the same area consistently. Wonder if this is paramaterization feedback due to the large area of convection?

[cycloneye]

But then I see the 15.0N-55.0W coordinates of the TCPOD first mission on Thursday and that timing is for the back one.

[PTrackerLA]

12z GFS showing another Caribbean cruiser at 126 hrs

[Alyono]

GFS looks a bit strange. Almost as if it does not see the OHC in the NW Caribbean. The wind field is not that of a sheared TC either

[Alyono]

GFS has this entering the Gulf with 50 kt winds in 7 days

[northjaxpro]

I normally do not speculate too far out, but one interesting thing on the GFS run is you can still see the weakness off the U.S. East Coast in between the two ridges.

If we get TC development, what I mentioned here will be critical down the road. Just an observation.

[South Texas Storms]

Landfall near Mobile, Alabama on this run in about 9 days.

[Alyono]

I'm seeing New Orleans

[tolakram]

GFS 12Z, 180H



Any chance this is some echo off the larger storm in the EPAC?

[tropicwatch]

The way this season has been going before I place my bets on a GOM storm, lets see if it survives the Caribbean.

[South Texas Storms]

12z GFS high-res 192 hours:

[Steve]

LOL. Let's hope not. We last brushed with fate about 2 years ago with Isaac in August 2012. We in NOLA completely lucked out with that system being top-half dry like it was. I'm pretty convinced that if we had 3-5" of rain from the top part of that storm, things would have been much worse. Over 90% of the area lost power (certainly higher than that East Bank Jefferson Parish), but there wasn't a ton of damage.

Nobody minds a nusiance or minor/fun storm, but something coming out from the Caribbean in August (and certainly this August) could be significant. It's way too early, but one of the global models was showing a moisture swath up toward the Central/East-Central Gulf in the 10 day period (east of here).

[chaser1]

:uarrow: I normally do not speculate too far out, but one interesting thing on the GFS run is you can still see the weakness off the U.S. East Coast in between the two ridges.

If we get TC development, what I mentioned here will be critical down the road. Just an observation.

If I'm basing the origin of a strengthening storm on the GFS and coming from the Caribbean, along with the observation made by Jaxpro (above).... I'd be concerned for a hurricane landfall somewhere between Tampa and Cedar Key. I havn't really taken a look at this a.m.'s forecasted 500mb flow yet, but depending on how far south the weakness extends and how much of a mid level feature (than perhaps that of a more a 700mb-1000mb reflection instead), we still could be looking at a significant system potentially threatening literally anywhere in the Gulf

[South Texas Storms]

12z CMC run has it making landfall in the Florida Keys in 8 days.

[TheProfessor]

Has there ever been 2 big hurricanes in the Gulf before? If it happened would they both weaken, or would one weaken and the other strengthen? Would it change the paths of one of the storms? Is it possible that the potential Caribbean could track through the western GOM while the northern potential storm turns toward the Florida Keys and into the eastern Gulf? Or is that just a highly unlikely disaster movie type scenario? what kind of affects could occur if it happened? Would it cause a higher storm surge?

Sorry I'm young and curious and tropical weather is probably what I know least of.