Tropical Wave off African Coast (Is Invest 95L)

[alienstorm]

The wave at about 10W approaching the coast has a well defined LLC as depicted by this satellite loop.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[cycloneye]

Hi alienstorm. I split your post from the pouch 017L thread to make a new thread about the AEW you are mentioning and that is Pouch 018L.

[alienstorm]

Thank you

[cycloneye]

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2014/P18L.html

[gatorcane]

I believe this pouch is the one the global models are picking up on some possible development SW of the Cape Verde islands in about 5-7 days from now?

[GeneratorPower]

Seems kind of high lattitude compare with others this season, no?

[cycloneye]

Is biggie but the question is if this time a wave/pouch will not have plenty of dry air down the road to help on any future development.

[gatorcane]

The wave at about 10W approaching the coast has a well defined LLC as depicted by this satellite loop.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

Yes you can really see the spin there. I think the pouch circle on the image Cycloneye posted above should be more west than that.

[Hurricaneman]

The GFS has been bullish for the last many days for a tropical cyclone to develop from this but there is some slight support from the eruo for a weak low so this does need to be watched for possible tropical development and quite frankly this may be invested right off of Africa and wouldn't be surprised if this is 5 day lemoned later today or tomorrow

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Hurricane Andrew]

The wave at about 10W approaching the coast has a well defined LLC as depicted by this satellite loop.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

Yes you can really see the spin there. I think the pouch circle on the image Cycloneye posted above should be more west than that.

Wow. That thing IS really spinning. Pretty clearly defined, too. The wave ahead of it is not slowing down like the GFS showed though.

[Hurricane Andrew]

TAFB pops a low at 72 hours.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

[cycloneye]

TAFB pops a low at 72 hours.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

Looking at the timing,it looks like that low is for Tropical Wave (Pouch 017L) in front of this one.

[gatorcane]

12Z NAVY Model is on board still, more east than the 12Z GFS but similar idea...here is how that run ends at 180 hours:

[Hurricane Andrew]

TAFB pops a low at 72 hours.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

Looking at the timing,it looks like that low is for Tropical Wave (Pouch 017L) in front of this one.

Oh, I believe you are right. Silly me!

At any rate, the low on satillite (near 12W) looks more like an MLC to me than a LLC. What do you think cyclone?

[Hurricane Andrew]

Sorry for another link, but the image sharing site doesn't like my iPad.

Looks like ex-94L took a massive bite out of the SAL.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... litE&time=

[Hurricaneman]

Sorry for another link, but the image sharing site doesn't like my iPad.

Looks like ex-94L took a massive bite out of the SAL.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... litE&time=

017L as well so that could be a good thing for 018L for development and when it comes to the GFS at 16 days the last few days has shown this going from Landfall in Florida to landfall in the windward islands, Hispaniola and Cuba to recurve so while I think this will develop we will have no idea where this will go until sometime late next week

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[cycloneye]

Tons of moisture in the Eastern Atlantic in the next few days is what GFS forecasts that may help this pouch get going.

[SFLcane]

Tons of moisture in the Eastern Atlantic in the next few days is what GFS forecasts that may help this pouch get going.

yea luis something we have yet to see this season. Desert conditions out there

[blp]

I think we just need a nice CV system to get things going in order to change the dynamic out there. It seems like the first real system to bust through may open the door and breakdown these dry conditions.

[gatorcane]

This pouch is gaining some convection near the LLC which is a good sign. Looks quite good and also Pouch 17L to the west is gaining convection too but pouch 18L is so large, it probably will absorb 17L. I am reposting the good link Alienstorm provided above so we can monitor pouch 18L as it moves off Africa in the next day or so:

West Africa Floater