Thoughts on rest of 2014 N Atlantic Hurricane season

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Thoughts on rest of 2014 N Atlantic Hurricane season

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 14, 2014 11:28 am

This thread is made to post any thoughts and discussions about how you see the rest of the 2014 North Atlantic hurricane season.No model runs will be allowed in this thread as there is the Global Models thread for that.Let's have a good exchange of thoughts about what the rest of this season will bring. As part of this thread of thoughts and discussions,the members can post about what number of storms they think are left. Remember to post our S2K disclaimer if you are going to post a forecast.

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Re: Thoughts on rest of 2014 N Atlantic Hurricane season

#2 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Thu Aug 14, 2014 11:30 am

6 more named storms. Three hurricanes. One major hurricane.

3 TS landfalls, 1 hurricane landfall. No major landfalls.
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Re: Thoughts on rest of 2014 N Atlantic Hurricane season

#3 Postby CFLHurricane » Thu Aug 14, 2014 11:42 am

This thread is an awesome idea! :)

I don't expect any meaningful changes for rest of the season due to SAL and wind shear.

My prediction is 3 more TS, 2 hurricanes, no majors, and no landfalls (thank goodness).
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Re: Thoughts on rest of 2014 N Atlantic Hurricane season

#4 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 14, 2014 12:04 pm

I will stick with my S2K poll original numbers that were 11/5/1 so for the rest of the season 9/3/1 taking into account Arthur and Bertha. Dont see anything to change what I see as negative factors such as atmosphere behaving like an El Nino but that is not officially declared,dry air at mid levels and cooler than normal sst's in MDR.

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Re: Thoughts on rest of 2014 N Atlantic Hurricane season

#5 Postby beoumont » Thu Aug 14, 2014 12:24 pm

I'll play.

One major hurricane landfall. The rest doesn't matter.

Reasoning: meteorological happenings, specifically hurricane formation and track, are more "chance" than any other factor. Flipping a coin and getting "tails" 8 straight times (no major landfalls in 8 years) indicates that getting "heads" this year is the logical occurrence.

Since the real hurricane season usually runs from August 20th - October 20th, nothing that has or has not happened yet has little if any meaning.
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#6 Postby ninel conde » Thu Aug 14, 2014 1:06 pm

ill stick to what i said in may, 5/2/0 and that contitions will only get worse and drier, assuming moisture can actually go negative in the tropics, lol. the pattern has shifted into winter mode and JB's idea of some type of nw atlantic ridge developing wont happen. no in close development as that doesnt happen in a winter pattern.
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Re: Thoughts on rest of 2014 N Atlantic Hurricane season

#7 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 14, 2014 1:19 pm

Alyono mentioned 1994 as a good analog in the models thread.

What I find interesting about 1994, and this is just an observation about 94, not a prediction of this year, is that suddenly in November we had 2 hurricanes, as if conditions suddenly became favorable but it was too late in the season to really matter much. Then came the very active 1995 season. 94 was a moderate el nino year and yet had some late season activity.

I can't help but think we've been fooled somewhat as to the importance of el nino and la nina while something else can be just as important of a driver for tropical development.

Anyway, on topic, I am sticking to my original estimate of 9/2/1, already wrong, and I still expect one more hurricane and I expect it to be a major, with the rest being tropical storms. So that would end us at 9/3/1?

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#8 Postby WeatherGuesser » Thu Aug 14, 2014 1:35 pm

What Hurricane season?
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#9 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 14, 2014 1:47 pm

My thoughts are similar Beaumont above. We are just about to enter the main part of the Atlantic season which is generally from Aug 20th - Oct 20th in the Atlantic. There is still plenty of time for the pattern to change to allow conditions to become more favorable - in fact maybe we already have something that may eventually become a named system getting going near the Cape Verde islands now as it does have some model support.

Also - regarding this "winter pattern" talk, the long-range GEFS and GEPS ensembles are showing anomalously strong ridging over Eastern Canada and throughout the Northern Atlantic as we head towards the end of August. That would be completely opposite of what we have seen for most of this summer so far and could certainly open the door for some tropical threats for the U.S. and Caribbean islands assuming something gets going out there at just the right time.

So I don't see any winter-pattern setting up as we heads towards the end of August.

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Re: Thoughts on rest of 2014 N Atlantic Hurricane season

#10 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Aug 14, 2014 3:16 pm

beoumont wrote:I'll play.

One major hurricane landfall. The rest doesn't matter.

Reasoning: meteorological happenings, specifically hurricane formation and track, are more "chance" than any other factor. Flipping a coin and getting "tails" 8 straight times (no major landfalls in 8 years) indicates that getting "heads" this year is the logical occurrence.

Since the real hurricane season usually runs from August 20th - October 20th, nothing that has or has not happened yet has little if any meaning.


The odds of a major landfall are lower than flipping a coin.

While there has been no MH landfall in the USA ffor 8 years, in the 50s and 40s, recent landfalls such as Sandy, Irene, and Ike would all be considered majors probs.

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Re: Thoughts on rest of 2014 N Atlantic Hurricane season

#11 Postby Steve » Thu Aug 14, 2014 3:27 pm

I'm pretty sure this will be an eventful mid/late season. Water temperature profiles have flipped to where the Gulf has some of the hottest waters in the entire basin even if the anomalies are mostly average. The US East Coast (and particularly off maritime Canada) has the hottest waters relative to average at this time. I agree with everyone who focused the season on the Florida Peninsula, SE US Coast and Eastern Seaboard. We had the one hurricane and there should be at least a couple more threats. I wouldn't be surprised to see something sneak in to the Gulf, although I don't think the Gulf will have more than a typical amount of named storms or depressions (probably 2-3 max) regardless of origin.

Pattern has been evolving in the Gulf South. Throughout June, July and early August, there have been strong fronts out ahead of transient troughs that were making it into the Gulf of Mexico. However, as the pattern is evolving toward the proverbial summer high tide, only weak boundaries are settling down this way with most of the surface and upper lows lifting out Northeast from the Midwest and Great Lakes. The way I interpret that is that the downstream implications are for ridging to pulse off of an into the SE US Coast, and obviously depending on timing and what might be lurking will depend on threats in that area.

Arguing against substantial activity is the fact that El Nino is progged to increase by many models toward 1.5/2.0 before diminishing later on. In a nutshell, I would expect a less than recent averages season probably getting us to the G or H storm with at least 2-3 threats to th US, Mexico and Canada. It may be early September before we see any multipe, simultaneous activity, but don't count the season out at this point. That's a foolish assumption.

Thoughts posted herein are the opinion of the author only and are NOT official anything.

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#12 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Aug 14, 2014 5:24 pm

My original predictions back in May were 11/4/2, as of now my new predictions are 10/5/1 (include Hurricanes Arthur and Bertha). That means the remainder of this dreadful season will be lucky to see 8/3/1 there is even the possibility of only seeing 6/2/0 the way things have been going. I also predict a very slim chance of one more minimal hurricane hit in the U.S., and most if not all the storms that only remain T.S. status at peak will be very weak short lived systems. Overall I predicted a below average to MAYBE even well below average season as a whole. Uncle SAL will also remain a nuisance the rest of the season, along wind Wind Shear and marginal SST's (especially in the MDR). The steering pattern will also feature continued troughiness along the East Coast (despite the GFS trying to show ridging) along with these troughs remaining stronger than normal. IMO the GFS showing developing ridging over Eastern Canada, and into New England WILL NOT play out since it still and has remained in the long-range.
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Re: Thoughts on rest of 2014 N Atlantic Hurricane season

#13 Postby SFLcane » Thu Aug 14, 2014 5:44 pm

beoumont wrote:I'll play.

One major hurricane landfall. The rest doesn't matter.

Reasoning: meteorological happenings, specifically hurricane formation and track, are more "chance" than any other factor. Flipping a coin and getting "tails" 8 straight times (no major landfalls in 8 years) indicates that getting "heads" this year is the logical occurrence.

Since the real hurricane season usually runs from August 20th - October 20th, nothing that has or has not happened yet has little if any meaning.


As long as it makes landfall in SFL! :)
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#14 Postby Andrew92 » Thu Aug 14, 2014 6:36 pm

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I know it hasn't been declared officially, but with Amanda and Cristina to start, and now more recently Genevieve, Iselle, and Julio, and maybe Karina in a couple days, I can't help but think there is some kind of El Nino going on. I think the EPAC will continue to be quite active the rest of this month and into September, possibly going very deep down the list.

But the Atlantic? I see the potential for some homegrown developments, so this could be a year similar to 2002. Bertha, Edouard, Fay, and Hanna were all the kind of storms I could see shaping up near the peak of the season. With last year having no majors, and Arthur already having been a Category 2, I definitely think we get a major hurricane somewhere in Atlantic this year, but probably just one. However, it will be a lot closer overall to quantity if the Atlantic makes a bit of a run down the list, and not so much quality.

If what Alyono is saying about 1994 turns out correct, though, even the peak and much of October could be fairly quiet except for some weak storms (although I also know there were a few depressions close to tropical storm strength that were pretty close, we easily could have made it to maybe Isaac that year as I recall). But I have to say that I think there will be some kind of late-season activity also. Don't know how much, but probably over the open Atlantic.

My numbers the rest of the season (including Arthur and Bertha): 10/5/1.

-Andrew92
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Re: Thoughts on rest of 2014 N Atlantic Hurricane season

#15 Postby ConvergenceZone » Thu Aug 14, 2014 10:53 pm

I'm thinking my prediction of only making it to the "G" storm is appearing more and more likely as the days go by.....Even though there were a few people saying that I was way too low with my prediction..... :).....
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Re: Thoughts on rest of 2014 N Atlantic Hurricane season

#16 Postby Hammy » Fri Aug 15, 2014 12:59 am

I've been thinking for some time that this year may be similar to 2002. May go the rest of August without a single storm, maybe almost to the end of the month at least, then have the bulk of the activity in September, and probably go without any Cape Verde long-trackers. Though whether or not we have an early end to the season will depend on whether or not El Nino gets going.
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Re: Thoughts on rest of 2014 N Atlantic Hurricane season

#17 Postby vbhoutex » Fri Aug 15, 2014 8:30 am

cycloneye wrote:This thread is made to post any thoughts and discussions about how you see the rest of the 2014 North Atlantic hurricane season.No model runs will be allowed in this thread as there is the Global Models thread for that.Let's have a good exchange of thoughts about what the rest of this season will bring. As part of this thread of thoughts and discussions,the members can post about what number of storms they think are left. Remember to post our S2K disclaimer if you are going to post a forecast.

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


A little clarification is needed here. This thread, as Luis states, is not a model discussions thread. However that doesn't mean a model can"t be mentioned in your post. What it does mean is that if you need to mention a model to make a point that is fine, but this thread is not to discuss a specific model and what it is showing. Hope this helps. If you need more help with or want to discuss this please use the pm feature and send it to me.
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#18 Postby Alyono » Fri Aug 15, 2014 11:16 am

Given what is being showed by the models, as well as the fact that the central Atlantic remains as hostile as I have ever seen it (seems the MJO phase is such that convection is being suppressed there), I am not sure we will see any long tracked systems this year. Bertha may be the long tracker.

Instead, what we may see are quick spin ups. Take Antia in 1977. A wave did nothing until it reached the Gulf and found favorable conditions. It may be something like that that we see this year. Open ocean developments may only persist for a day or two, like they did in 1994, another down right hostile year

Also, the disturbances are quite weak. We havn't had a strong disturbance yet that has moved off of Africa and was an immediate developmental candidate. I had posted in the models thread, but I will restate, that if you exclude el niño years, a negative IOD is UNFAVORABLE for Cape Verde systems based upon data I looked at from 1980 to 2013. The correlation is about .3 (not strong, but some signal) (including all years there is a correlation of -.15, but the strong el niños overwhelmed the signal of a highly positive IOD)
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#19 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Aug 15, 2014 12:14 pm

I think 6 more named storms, 2 or 3 hurricanes. MAYBE one major.

I think Cape Verde will be dead meat this year. Most or all storms will be from non-tropical origin or monsoonal troughs and forming either west of 70W and/or north of 25N. Otherwise they would be broiled or sheared to death.
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Re: Thoughts on rest of 2014 N Atlantic Hurricane season

#20 Postby Frank2 » Fri Aug 15, 2014 2:05 pm

More of the media are saying the current trend does indicate an El Nino pattern (very active Eastern and Central Pacific and inactive Atlantic), so my guess is that unless something unusual happens (another Albert) the Atlantic season is probably going to remain quiet...

P.S. The only thing I've noticed per the GFS is a shift in the eastern trough to the western states with more ridging in the Atlantic, but that's about all...

Frank
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