Thoughts on rest of 2014 N Atlantic Hurricane season

[SeGaBob]

If everyone looks on page 25 you'll see on October 1st what I said when people were being negative.

In addition to that, I posted the Euro run, which showed a decent storm on the ten day, so the model called it pretty good.

I noticed that as well...I'd have to agree that it was pretty good with this one.

[gatorcane]

wonder how many more recurves left this season? 2014="season of recurves", see map below. 90L (not shown) will likely add another recurve to the map similar to Cristobal/Bertha or maybe a little more east

[Hammy]

as of next advisory the numbers will be 7/5/1, and we could still get a weak storm squeezed out of 91L down the road, as well as a hurricane (possibly major) out of Gonzalo.

[Alyono]

Interesting observation about the past 2 seasons

Last year, we had a near normal number of storms, but way below normal in terms of hurricanes and intense hurricanes.

This year, likely will be a well below normal of named storms, but near normal number of hurricanes and intense hurricanes.

Very interesting

[chaser1]

So here we are with the season winding down, yet for the moment its ramping UP. Assuming that we're at 7/5/2 for the season by weeks end, i'm pretty confident that we'll have at least 1 or 2 more logs to throw onto the fire before Nov. 30.

Now, that's not to suggest destruction and mayhem, but I remember very succinctly just a couple of weeks ago, all the gum flapping (by certain posters) about the season essentially being over - regardless whether there might even be be 1 or 2 stink bomb excuses for storms still yet to come. Gustavo however IS the point of the matter. It will be significant enough of a tropical cyclone to have a potentially significant impact to the Leewards, V.I., & Puerto Rico, even if primarily caused by flooding. Then you have the N.E. coast of the D.R. and possibly the Turks & Caicos which might be in the line of fire. With any luck however, impact there should be minimal. The potential threat to Bermuda might be quite significant.... especially if there were to be a Cat. 3 bearing down on the island.

Sure, this season has not produced quite the number of named storms compared to the average season, but c'mon?! Since when do we begin to assume that an average hurricane couldn't possibly form during the month of October? Whether or not 1-3 more additional named storms form during the remaining weeks of the 2014 Atlantic season, is itself of little consequence other than meriting scientific debate. What remains critical is the potential destruction and/or deaths potentially caused by that "one" single hurricane. This is why we so carefully watch, forecast, and track these things. It's not about the measly 6 bear deep in the woods, its about that one big hungry one that crosses into our world. This is why Hurricanes such as Andrew or Mitch will always be brought up in conversation. No one is expecting another Freakicane, but the point is such an event (with a weaker storm) is not at all unreasonable - at least until the end of the season is truly pretty close. Last time I checked, that date was still November 30.

[hurricanehunter69]

Where's all the season cancel posters now....? Oh...the October minnie peak HAPPENED! Hammy vs. convergence zone....C zone (knocked out!)

[WPBWeather]

Where's all the season cancel posters now....? Oh...the October minnie peak HAPPENED! Hammy vs. convergence zone....C zone (knocked out!)

I second that comment! HH69, you could add a few other well-known nay sayers too.

[tolakram]

So does anyone care to declare the season over after Gonzalo? Maybe we can get 3 major hurricanes this season?

I just hope Gonzalo can miss Bermuda.

[Hammy]

Sort of interesting that for all the "earliest end ever" and "least active season ever" posts, we could conceivably still have an average season, we're only three storms and one hurricane away, and given that the MJO appears it'll be around for awhile, and with October acting like September, another storm or two this month and one next month is at least not out of the realm of possibility.

[gigabite]

So does anyone care to declare the season over after Gonzalo? Maybe we can get 3 major hurricanes this season?

I just hope Gonzalo can miss Bermuda.

Hope so, can't wait to break into the hurricane goodies. 3 weeks of spam & eggs, spam & pineapple, spam spaghetti, grilled spam on toast...

[psyclone]

Breaking news: hurricane season is NOT over. My preseason guess of 7-3-1 has now busted badly and more storms are possible (per our friend the calendar)

[TheStormExpert]

I wouldn't go with anymore than 2 more Tropical Storms, of course things could always change like they already have so stay alert.

[Ntxw]

With Gonzalo Atlantic will finally go above 50 ACE pts, about half of normal. 2014 has made up much ground October and no longer is in the lowest percentile <50%. This essentially removes 2013/2014 couplet from the bottom 5. The MJO, as hammy has said, has generated a Hurricane with each passage this year in the hotbed Bermuda Triangle.

[Steve820]

Yeah this season's not over, we could still get a Hanna, Isaias, or if we're very lucky, Josephine before the season is actually over. Pre-season, I thought we would have another epic flop season, but guess what? We now have 2 majors!

[Ptarmigan]

Nothing is over until it is over. October has been acting more like August or September. Usually storms in October form in the Caribbean.

[ConvergenceZone]

Where's all the season cancel posters now....? Oh...the October minnie peak HAPPENED! Hammy vs. convergence zone....C zone (knocked out!)

Woop De Do! So we had 1(emphasis on 1) more storm then what I recently predicated...Oh I'm sooooooo impressed with 2014! NOT!

[gatorcane]

We have a chance of a BOC storm next week so that would add to the total for October which has been active to say the least.

[northjaxpro]

We have a chance of a BOC storm next week so that would add to the total.

Should it develop that is

[Hammy]

What are the chances of exceeding 60 ACE this season? I think this would be a bit higher than what was forecast.

Where's all the season cancel posters now....? Oh...the October minnie peak HAPPENED! Hammy vs. convergence zone....C zone (knocked out!)

Woop De Do! So we had 1(emphasis on 1) more storm then what I recently predicated...Oh I'm sooooooo impressed with 2014! NOT!

You also repeatedly said the season would produce "at most" one weak storm if anything. The season has definately not been unimpressive given the forecasts, it fell within what was expected, on the high side for the most part.

I guess we'll just have to wait and see if those say there will be a few more storms are correct or not....That will ultimately determine who was correct...

Indeed they were

7-12 Named Storms
3-6 Hurricanes
0-2 Major Hurricanes
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 40%-90% of the median.

Not sure what to make of "40%-90% of the median" in relation to where it's currently at, but the storms were within (though on the low end) of the forecast, and hurricanes/major were on the high end. And we could still get another storm or two before the season is over.

[ConvergenceZone]

Still not impressed, but it takes ALOT to impress me.....Nobody can predict with certainty what's going to happen for sure, that's why they are predictions....You folks that said there would be more storms could have JUST AS EASILY BEEN WRONG AS WELL.....You basically had a 50% 50% of being wrong but as luck has it, you were correct this time.........