Thoughts on rest of 2014 N Atlantic Hurricane season
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
Here's the surface analysis from the WPC. Early Oct strong cold front has cleared the southern gulf of Mexico. While nothing is impossible, I think the risk odds for the western and northern gulf is very low after this point as westerlies will likely carry anything that forms ENE. Florida and the East coast is not in the all clear yet from something coming up out of the southern Carib into the westerlies
0 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Thoughts on rest of 2014 N Atlantic Hurricane season
2014 October 5 12Z Canadian operational run shows FOUR hurricanes developing in the Atlantic. GFS shows only one in the GOM. Euro and Navgem don't seem to show much of anything.
0 likes
- WPBWeather
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 535
- Age: 65
- Joined: Thu Jul 18, 2013 12:33 pm
Re: Thoughts on rest of 2014 N Atlantic Hurricane season
jimvb wrote:2014 October 5 12Z Canadian operational run shows FOUR hurricanes developing in the Atlantic. GFS shows only one in the GOM. Euro and Navgem don't seem to show much of anything.
You've got all that right! I just don't know which part is right...
0 likes
Re: Thoughts on rest of 2014 N Atlantic Hurricane season
2014 October 5 12Z Canadian operational run shows FOUR hurricanes developing in the Atlantic. GFS shows only one in the GOM. Euro and Navgem don't seem to show much of anything.
0 likes
Re: Thoughts on rest of 2014 N Atlantic Hurricane season
Maybe the front will trigger favorable conditions in the SW Caribbean, maybe not.
0 likes
Re: Thoughts on rest of 2014 N Atlantic Hurricane season
This strong early Oct. cold front is but a memory at this point. If this season is gonna go out making one big "suck" sounding noise, it won't be due to anything that occurred this past weekend. Elvis AND the front have essentially left the building. Dew points will be recovering, SST's remain warm (EURO 3 month anomaly for Oct., Nov., & Dec. indicate somewhat above normal SST's for Oct. & Nov. climatology favored areas for tropical development), and long range 200mb forecasts show a less zonal & more relaxed upper level wind flow over the days to come. Furthermore, the 12Z EURO from today did indicate 1010 surface pressures in the far W. Caribbean between days 8-10 (approx. similar with the prior GFS and GEM runs).
I'm pretty comfortable with guessing that we'll see 2-3 more named storms during October. Granted, one or more could easily end up developing into low end cyclones having minimal or no impact on population areas. I'm pretty sure that if there is going to be one additional storm having a marginal chance of reaching hurricane intensity and affecting land, it's going to come out of that "October Stew" that models are showing with the 72 hour 850mb vorticity associated with a typical Pacific/Atlantic Gyre; as of tonight's 0Z GFS run, the energy continues to appear to become focused in the far W. Caribbean and appears to potentially be a depression at about 160 hours. The GFS eventually deepens this system and moves it west across Yucatan and into the SW Gulf, and would appear to rack up at least 4 days of ACE. Of course, I'm much less concerned about potential motion this far out and wont even begin to guess steering for a system that hasn't even formed yet. These Oct. type systems are slow to develop, but climatology would suggest that such a developing storm could easily pose potential risk to Gulf states.
Beyond the 7-10 day period, its anyone's guess if or what might still come out of the Western Atlantic, but i'm not seeing the Westerlies dropping further south - not for some while. In fact, the only way i'm seeing any significant front drop down to the S. Gulf coast again during the next 2-3 weeks, is if its being pulled down behind the cyclonic flow of a north or northeastward moving tropical cyclone. If fall really begins in earnest after then, well I suppose Nov. might prove irrelevant for tropical development. If the westerlies remain retreated however, it wouldn't take that much to squeeze out some errand T.S
I'm pretty comfortable with guessing that we'll see 2-3 more named storms during October. Granted, one or more could easily end up developing into low end cyclones having minimal or no impact on population areas. I'm pretty sure that if there is going to be one additional storm having a marginal chance of reaching hurricane intensity and affecting land, it's going to come out of that "October Stew" that models are showing with the 72 hour 850mb vorticity associated with a typical Pacific/Atlantic Gyre; as of tonight's 0Z GFS run, the energy continues to appear to become focused in the far W. Caribbean and appears to potentially be a depression at about 160 hours. The GFS eventually deepens this system and moves it west across Yucatan and into the SW Gulf, and would appear to rack up at least 4 days of ACE. Of course, I'm much less concerned about potential motion this far out and wont even begin to guess steering for a system that hasn't even formed yet. These Oct. type systems are slow to develop, but climatology would suggest that such a developing storm could easily pose potential risk to Gulf states.
Beyond the 7-10 day period, its anyone's guess if or what might still come out of the Western Atlantic, but i'm not seeing the Westerlies dropping further south - not for some while. In fact, the only way i'm seeing any significant front drop down to the S. Gulf coast again during the next 2-3 weeks, is if its being pulled down behind the cyclonic flow of a north or northeastward moving tropical cyclone. If fall really begins in earnest after then, well I suppose Nov. might prove irrelevant for tropical development. If the westerlies remain retreated however, it wouldn't take that much to squeeze out some errand T.S
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- ConvergenceZone
- Category 5
- Posts: 4833
- Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:40 am
- Location: Northern California
Well, I still think we will get one more storm and maybe a depression as well, but the way the season has gone, I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't get anything more....But if I was to bet, I would say one more.....Of course I could be wrong. We may have no storms or we may have 3 more storms, that's the fun in predicting
0 likes
- gigabite
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 916
- Age: 70
- Joined: Wed May 05, 2004 4:09 pm
- Location: Naples, Florida
I have watching the multisat.wv.stitched.Global at nrl. Seems like things are clouding up, and as the New Moon approaches the Moon, Venus, Mercury and of course the Sun align. Kicking up the potential energy by several percent. This issue will be around for the remainder of the 2014 hurricane season.
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139059
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Thoughts on rest of 2014 N Atlantic Hurricane season
Here s a video about how things look for the rest of the season by Levi Cowan. Additional topics such as Typhoon Vongfong and something about El Nino are at the end of it.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... continues/
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... continues/
1 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- TheStormExpert
- Category 5
- Posts: 8487
- Age: 30
- Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
- Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL
With the arrival of the MJO and the climatologically secondary smaller peak in the season taking place mid-late October this probably explains why it seems the Atlantic has suddenly somewhat lit up, especially with the Euro predicting a major hurricane in the SE Bahamas recurring out to sea in 10 days. So where was this all last month?
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 3755
- Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
- Location: miami fl
Re:
TheStormExpert wrote:With the arrival of the MJO and the climatologically secondary smaller peak in the season taking place mid-late October this probably explains why it seems the Atlantic has suddenly somewhat lit up, especially with the Euro predicting a major hurricane in the SE Bahamas recurring out to sea in 10 days. So where was this all last month?
This is certainly a strange setup, it seems the back-loaded season many predicted last year may actually play out this year.
0 likes
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 58
- Age: 42
- Joined: Sun Jun 29, 2014 7:52 am
- Location: Yonkers, NY
With all these new areas to watch I think we will have Fay shortly, 90L will probably be named and I think that next wave will be depicted by NHC which also has potential along with the carribbean so 2-4 more systems this year is possible. Including one major and if you believe in MU long range shows major hybrid storm up into northeast.
0 likes
This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Does anybody else see the irony that just a week ago several people were declaring the season absolutely over?
0 likes
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139059
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Thoughts on rest of 2014 N Atlantic Hurricane season
That is why the North Atlantic seasons end on November 30th on any kind of activity above,about or below average. And the saying "Never say never in the Tropics" applies bigtime at this moment.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- northjaxpro
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8900
- Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
- Location: Jacksonville, FL
Well, the MJO has finally awakened the Atlantic basin it seems right now. Also, we are in the period where we do get a "secondary peak", a brief increase of activity during mid October on average each season. However, thankfully, unless we get a system moving north/northeast out of the Western Caribbean of what is left of this season, climatology suggests the Florida peninsula and the U.S. safe from impacts from tropical cyclones the rest of the way most of the time. However, there is a very recent exception to this, with Hurricane Sandy of course, where a Caribbean storm bucked climatology and impacted the U.S. very late in the season.
At least we have some activity out there to monitor and hopefully stay out to sea, although 90L currently could pose a threat to the Greater Antilles by early next week.
At least we have some activity out there to monitor and hopefully stay out to sea, although 90L currently could pose a threat to the Greater Antilles by early next week.
0 likes
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
Re:
SeGaBob wrote:If everyone looks on page 25 you'll see on October 1st what I said when people were being negative.
In addition to that, I posted the Euro run, which showed a decent storm on the ten day, so the model called it pretty good.
0 likes
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- gigabite
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 916
- Age: 70
- Joined: Wed May 05, 2004 4:09 pm
- Location: Naples, Florida
Re: Ephemeris is more interesting than 2014 Atlantic
gigabite wrote:October 10th might start a more conducive timeline.
This might be on pg 25. Just saying
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: AnnularCane, aspen, cajungal, Cat5James, cycloneye, Dougiefresh, Google Adsense [Bot] and 193 guests