Thoughts on rest of 2014 N Atlantic Hurricane season

[ConvergenceZone]

I still think we will have 2 or 3 storms in September....However, if we don't get our "C" Storm by the end of August and IF on September 1st, conditions are not looking any better than they are right now, I'll probably drop my up to letter "G" prediction down to "E" or "F", and that's ONLY if by September 1st there is still nothing in sight..........

[WPBWeather]

There is been a real LACK of understanding of some basic weather processes evident with some of the repetitive negative outlook postings by some (you know who you are) on this blog. LEADING indicators are MORE important here, not LAGGING indicators (SAL, Shear, etc.).

[ConvergenceZone]

There is been a real LACK of understanding of some basic weather processes evident with some of the repetitive negative outlook postings by some (you know who you are) on this blog. LEADING indicators are MORE important here, not LAGGING indicators (SAL, Shear, etc.).

Well, if you end up being right, I'll be the first to congratulate you.....Although if I end up being right, I'll be the first to congratulate myself

[Alyono]

euro once again shws an east coast trof in 10 days. so much for the super ridge in the NW atlantic which isnt going to happen. 4 fronts are supposed to rip through here this week, when in summer we shouldnt get 4 fronts for the entire season. with a super hurricane in the east pac i suspect the atlantic to be flooded with shear. 0/0/0 in august seems almost certain now. with the winter pattern in full gear i suspect conditions to be more negative in sept.

Just to point out 0/0/0 in August is physically impossible as August is already 1/1/0.

Bertha is almost certainly a JULY system, not an August

[TheStormExpert]

euro once again shws an east coast trof in 10 days. so much for the super ridge in the NW atlantic which isnt going to happen. 4 fronts are supposed to rip through here this week, when in summer we shouldnt get 4 fronts for the entire season. with a super hurricane in the east pac i suspect the atlantic to be flooded with shear. 0/0/0 in august seems almost certain now. with the winter pattern in full gear i suspect conditions to be more negative in sept.

Just to point out 0/0/0 in August is physically impossible as August is already 1/1/0.

Bertha is almost certainly a JULY system, not an August

Even though Arthur didn't get named until 11am July 1st it is still a June still storm since it's first advisory was issued on June 30th @ 11pm, right?

[HURRICANELONNY]

There is been a real LACK of understanding of some basic weather processes evident with some of the repetitive negative outlook postings by some (you know who you are) on this blog. LEADING indicators are MORE important here, not LAGGING indicators (SAL, Shear, etc.).

AMEN

[tolakram]

Even though Arthur didn't get named until 11am July 1st it is still a June still storm since it's first advisory was issued on June 30th @ 11pm, right?

I believe everything goes off UTC, not local, so June 30th would be July 1st UTC.

[CrazyC83]

Just because Cape Verde is as unfavorable as it likely gets in this generation (it seems) doesn't mean we can't see spin-ups from non-tropical sources or monsoonal systems in the Caribbean.

[Hurricaneman]

Just because Cape Verde is as unfavorable as it likely gets in this generation (it seems) doesn't mean we can't see spin-ups from non-tropical sources or monsoonal systems in the Caribbean.

from another thread, we dont want any of those monsoon systems to develop because the heat potential could cause a Wilma or Mitch situation so this is one of those times I'm hoping that shear stays there

[tolakram]

Where are people getting this shear information? Current shear over all tropical zones is near normal at the moment.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.html

Shear across the Caribbean has risen from below normal to near normal. In the coming days it will continue to increase possibly even 40-50kts+ (look east of central America). The trend has been up from last week and remain so for the foreseeable future. MDR is kind of a wash for the time being.

Shear is above normal now but confined the the southern Caribbean, the graveyard. The Relative Humidity forecast is changing as well, with a lot less super dry air around compared to the last few weeks at the 700MB layer.

[chaser1]

Where are people getting this shear information? Current shear over all tropical zones is near normal at the moment.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.html

Shear across the Caribbean has risen from below normal to near normal. In the coming days it will continue to increase possibly even 40-50kts+ (look east of central America). The trend has been up from last week and remain so for the foreseeable future. MDR is kind of a wash for the time being.

Shear is above normal now but confined the the southern Caribbean, the graveyard. The Relative Humidity forecast is changing as well, with a lot less super dry air around compared to the last few weeks at the 700MB layer.

In looking at the GFS 12Z 200mb charts, its true that upper level shear for once, is not the inhibiting factor for near term development. I did see the small jet of shear enhanced by a small upper high pushing up from S. America but this is NOT a 5 degree wide feature plowing eastward from a Pacific El Nino; According to the forecast maps, this feature is purely transitory and in fact gone in about 36 hours. A more menacing shear zone (resembling some TUTT?) does appear from the Southeast Caribbean shooting north into the Atlantic, however models not only depict this feature to move westward by the building upper ridging from the east, but this feature likely is aiding the upper air diffluence for the forming system to its east.

[WeatherGuesser]

I'm confused as to why there are nearly 200 posts on possible, maybe, could be storms that don't exist yet. (Invests)

[tolakram]

I'm confused as to why there are nearly 200 posts on possible, maybe, could be storms that don't exist yet. (Invests)

It's a discussion board, this is what we do, this is what we enjoy. If you don't enjoy it you are welcome not to look.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Even if we don't get anything of significance in the East Atlantic this season, the potency of tropical waves has been impressive--and to be expected given several factors. The Gulf of Guinea is cold, African rainfall has been generally above-average, and, the most recent change, the Indian Ocean has gone sharply negative (lowest since September 2010).

[somethingfunny]

This August 20 - September 20 timeframe is when the majority of hurricanes and US landfalls happen. Even slow seasons always have a week or two where conditions allow a quick spurt of several storms forming.

[Steve820]

Yeah, this season's not over yet, it takes only one big storm to make the season a memorable one. During this August 20-September 20 timeframe, everyone in hurricane-prone areas of the U.S. should be prepared even though this is an inactive season.

[TheStormExpert]

Noticed yesterday TWC for the first time I think showed the Vertical Instability chart for the Tropical Atlantic for 2014 to date.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

There is been a real LACK of understanding of some basic weather processes evident with some of the repetitive negative outlook postings by some (you know who you are) on this blog. LEADING indicators are MORE important here, not LAGGING indicators (SAL, Shear, etc.).

And yet there are some posters on here who take every model run a month out as certainty and run with it claiming post after post the lid is about to come off, business is about to pick up, etc etc. And look at that one thunderstorm cloud swirl thats showing some twisting that is going to develop and be our next invest, soon to be hurricane yada yada yada.

[hurricanehunter69]

So in less than 24 hours we've gone from season cancel post after season cancel post, to... a "potential" serious landfalling Hurricane threat! Make no mistake about it. The conditions in the NW carib and GOM will be very favorable for development and the heat content of the water is very dangerous! I (N gulf coast) for one am hoping I don't have to deal with this thing! But as for season cancel....GAME OVER!!!

[Alyono]

I have posted the facts on the IOD several times here (and even stratified the results based upon el niño and non el niño, and yet one poster, who is now on ignore, still repeats the opposite instead of even trying to inquire about the data