Thoughts on rest of 2014 N Atlantic Hurricane season

[somethingfunny]

:uarrow:

And looking at long range guidance out 10 days from now, I don't see any thing drastically changing with the pattern of U.S. East Coast troughs. Things can change, but now that we are about to enter September, I think it is more likely that we are locked into this pattern through most of the rest of this season.

What guidance are you looking at? Medium-range GFS guidance from the 12Z run shows the Bermuda High making an appearance for the forseeable future once Cristobal moves out. If it is correct, we haven't seen this pattern last this long the entire summer.

I think I'm looking at the same guidance as everybody is and I see a strong Bermuda high allowing storms to threaten the US and a trough along the East Coast balancing on a tightrope between protecting the shoreline or allowing a landfall. It's a stubborn trough and it's making every potential landfall questionable, and its making the Bermuda High remain stubbornly close enough to make every potential recurve questionable... I think you've both got it right.

I wonder how long it will be until this pattern shifts the mean trough position (presumably given the shift to autumn) farther offshore. Having this pattern at the peak of hurricane season makes me nervous, more nervous than previous years. Just because 3 out of 3 storms have bypassed or just delivered a glancing blow to the East Coast doesn't make me feel safer about the tropics throwing a 4th or 5th dart up that alley.

[Hammy]

Systems failing to get going has been brought up numerous times on here, and I've done a bit of digging and figured I'd throw some stats out there: since 2001 there have only been 17, and only 9 became majors, with all of those occurring either in 2003-04 or 2009-10. And of the 17 that became hurricanes in the MDR, Helene (06) and Ike did so above 18N, and Earl (10) did so at about 58W. 2001-02 and 2012 had no hurricanes there.

[ConvergenceZone]

Now that we got storm "C" out of the way, I think September will bee more active and bring "D", "E" and "F" and then October will finish the season with "G"...............

[Ntxw]

The last KW for a whle is crossing Atlantic now. Sinking air will soon dominate with significant prolonged suppressed phase to follow. Cristobal's wave breaking event (lower heights up north) will add to raised heights below. ACE addition week 1 should be slightly below normal, week 2 and 3 below to well below normal imo.

[cycloneye]

The last KW for a whle is crossing Atlantic now. Sinking air will soon dominate with significant prolonged suppressed phase to follow. Cristobal's wave breaking event (lower heights up north) will add to raised heights below. ACE addition week 1 should be slightly below normal, week 2 and 3 below to well below normal imo.

That is why CSU went with a below average next two weeks.

[blp]

The last KW for a whle is crossing Atlantic now. Sinking air will soon dominate with significant prolonged suppressed phase to follow. Cristobal's wave breaking event (lower heights up north) will add to raised heights below. ACE addition week 1 should be slightly below normal, week 2 and 3 below to well below normal imo.

Very good post. This is reflected on the models now which show lackluster development chances. The season will swing up and down based on the MJO and CCKW pulses. The dry air at the mid levels has also made a big upsurge the past 7 days.

[ConvergenceZone]

The last KW for a whle is crossing Atlantic now. Sinking air will soon dominate with significant prolonged suppressed phase to follow. Cristobal's wave breaking event (lower heights up north) will add to raised heights below. ACE addition week 1 should be slightly below normal, week 2 and 3 below to well below normal imo.

That is why CSU went with a below average next two weeks.

It's not a good sign when they go for a below average prediction in the next 2 to 3 weeks when it's at the "peak" of hurricane season.... If this come true, I may have to drop my prediction from "G" down to about "E"...... Absolutely Incredible if that comes true!

[gatorcane]

Look how quiet Africa is now as we head towards the peak:

[euro6208]

Look how quiet Africa is now as we head towards the peak:

Can we just add the NATL to the SATL? Certainly seems like something is always negative there

[Frank2]

The season might be close to being over - it seems the active period was very surpressed and the less active period hurricane-free, and if true the long-term forecasts were wrong again, even with their reduced numbers. Forecasters need to stop issuing these useless 2,160-hour (3-month) forecasts, because they only confuse the public and the media (who are confused enough)...

[NDG]

We'll be lucky if we see 4 more named systems at the pace we are going & now that the MJO is getting out of phase 2 into the peak of the hurricane season.

[Ntxw]

With the MJO in a very favorable phase much of August with very good KW (the two are often related) and we managed only one system that produced still below average ACE shows how controlling the background state of the Atlantic is. The odds of below 50 ACE season points is growing increasingly likely. In about two weeks normal will be near 50.

[ConvergenceZone]

We'll be lucky if we see 4 more named systems at the pace we are going & now that the MJO is getting out of phase 2 into the peak of the hurricane season.

I agree, I'm still shocked and how many people over the last month or two called for us to reach letter 'K' higher this year....You can tell the way that the everything was setting up with all of the negative factors that there was no way that was going to happen....And yet people were telling me that I was way too low with my "G" prediction

[Steve]

G or H looks and looked reasonable to me Zone unless 2002 ends up being an analog as many have suggested. I'm not sure I agree, but I'm open minded. That year featured a North Gulf hit west of here in October (Lili) which is fairly rare at least in most of our lifetimes. Amazing how dry continental Africa has become, so the wave train, after the next 3 or 4 crossing the basin or the one yet to emerge, is cut off for at least a while if not for the season after these impulses. This means source region of any future systems would not be African. Speaking of which, my Gulf Surge 2 is on the map. It looks to be upper energy, but nice call by NAM early this week and GFS last weekend. It's pretty dark gray to the south and southwest of here right now.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/ECIR4.html

The flip side of the argument was the downcasts of letters C, D or E or the idea we were in some repetitive winter pattern. That, IMHO was equally preposterous. You get to late summer however you get there. Patterns are always evolving. The only year I would have bought that argument was either 2000 or 2001 where the jetstream set up near the Yucatan. That was freakish and didn't mean cold for the deep south - just more of a mid-continental pattern displaced several hundred miles south.

[Hammy]

I'll throw my two cents in as far as some of the forecasts being made here, I'm seeing some that can't see past the one- or two-week pattern. Last year there were several weak storms, and while the peak didn't produce much, it still produced the two strongest storms of the season (weak as they were.) Going by current conditions is never a good idea when making a forecast, and some don't see anything on the models and decide to go by that, despite the fact that none of the storms that formed this year showed up beyond 6-8 days prior, regardless of which model it was. The season is at it's half-way point, and the outlooks for the next two weeks are below average, but they don't say anything beyond that two week period. Given that conditions this year are more favorable for strengthening systems than last year (we've had three hurricanes, including one Cat 2 with the outside possibility that Cristobal was as well) whereas last year we had none. So given those two hurricanes we had in September, It's very reasonable to assume we could have at least 1-2 this year, and probably one more in October, so 8-9 storms with 5-6 hurricanes and (maybe) one major seems to me to be the most rational answer.

[Ntxw]

This is not last year this is 2014. Lets stop comparing the two. That said, during last year's peak we had the MJO move through favorable phases in early Sept and managed a couple. This year the favorable phase occured a few weeks sooner (just now) and will take 25-40 days to cross the globe. With our limited skills we can only look 1-2 weeks for the global wind oscillations to see if the atmosphere will be favorable or unfavorable. This is not to say rogue development can't happen. Other than that its just biases whether you want development or not.

[Steve]

Those are all valid points Hammy. Cristobal, whether it technically did or didn't reach Category 2, probably would have had it made it 125-150 miles west which is what I thought would happen (though I still had it staying offshore of both FL and NC). 150 miles is insignificant big picture, but it admittedly means everything to coastal regions. I see you are putting a high percentage of named storms making it to hurricane, and I guess 3 of 3 provides a jump start for both number of hurricanes and overall percentages. I would have thought 50% or less based on the likelihood of closer in stuff this year, but as I said, your points are valid as usual.

[Steve]

ntwx, unless you were referring to a different poster (you had the up arrow) I didn't get that Hammy was comparing 13 and 14 as equal or equal comparisons. I only saw the reference to the peak.

[ninel conde]

would be shocked if sept was 0/0/0. never seen it so hostile at the supposed peak of the season. wont come close to last seasons weak inflated numbers as the horrid conditions are far more widespread.

[Hammy]

would be shocked if sept was 0/0/0. never seen it so hostile at the supposed peak of the season. wont come close to last seasons weak inflated numbers as the horrid conditions are far more widespread.

Conditions are obviously better than last year otherwise we would not have had three hurricanes. And don't forget the MDR is not the only place in the Atlantic, and conditions are far better than last year outside of it.