Thoughts on rest of 2014 N Atlantic Hurricane season

[Ntxw]

Here's the surface analysis from the WPC. Early Oct strong cold front has cleared the southern gulf of Mexico. While nothing is impossible, I think the risk odds for the western and northern gulf is very low after this point as westerlies will likely carry anything that forms ENE. Florida and the East coast is not in the all clear yet from something coming up out of the southern Carib into the westerlies

[jimvb]

2014 October 5 12Z Canadian operational run shows FOUR hurricanes developing in the Atlantic. GFS shows only one in the GOM. Euro and Navgem don't seem to show much of anything.

[WPBWeather]

2014 October 5 12Z Canadian operational run shows FOUR hurricanes developing in the Atlantic. GFS shows only one in the GOM. Euro and Navgem don't seem to show much of anything.

You've got all that right! I just don't know which part is right...

[jimvb]

2014 October 5 12Z Canadian operational run shows FOUR hurricanes developing in the Atlantic. GFS shows only one in the GOM. Euro and Navgem don't seem to show much of anything.

[Sanibel]

Maybe the front will trigger favorable conditions in the SW Caribbean, maybe not.

[chaser1]

This strong early Oct. cold front is but a memory at this point. If this season is gonna go out making one big "suck" sounding noise, it won't be due to anything that occurred this past weekend. Elvis AND the front have essentially left the building. Dew points will be recovering, SST's remain warm (EURO 3 month anomaly for Oct., Nov., & Dec. indicate somewhat above normal SST's for Oct. & Nov. climatology favored areas for tropical development), and long range 200mb forecasts show a less zonal & more relaxed upper level wind flow over the days to come. Furthermore, the 12Z EURO from today did indicate 1010 surface pressures in the far W. Caribbean between days 8-10 (approx. similar with the prior GFS and GEM runs).

I'm pretty comfortable with guessing that we'll see 2-3 more named storms during October. Granted, one or more could easily end up developing into low end cyclones having minimal or no impact on population areas. I'm pretty sure that if there is going to be one additional storm having a marginal chance of reaching hurricane intensity and affecting land, it's going to come out of that "October Stew" that models are showing with the 72 hour 850mb vorticity associated with a typical Pacific/Atlantic Gyre; as of tonight's 0Z GFS run, the energy continues to appear to become focused in the far W. Caribbean and appears to potentially be a depression at about 160 hours. The GFS eventually deepens this system and moves it west across Yucatan and into the SW Gulf, and would appear to rack up at least 4 days of ACE. Of course, I'm much less concerned about potential motion this far out and wont even begin to guess steering for a system that hasn't even formed yet. These Oct. type systems are slow to develop, but climatology would suggest that such a developing storm could easily pose potential risk to Gulf states.

Beyond the 7-10 day period, its anyone's guess if or what might still come out of the Western Atlantic, but i'm not seeing the Westerlies dropping further south - not for some while. In fact, the only way i'm seeing any significant front drop down to the S. Gulf coast again during the next 2-3 weeks, is if its being pulled down behind the cyclonic flow of a north or northeastward moving tropical cyclone. If fall really begins in earnest after then, well I suppose Nov. might prove irrelevant for tropical development. If the westerlies remain retreated however, it wouldn't take that much to squeeze out some errand T.S

[ConvergenceZone]

Well, I still think we will get one more storm and maybe a depression as well, but the way the season has gone, I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't get anything more....But if I was to bet, I would say one more.....Of course I could be wrong. We may have no storms or we may have 3 more storms, that's the fun in predicting

[psyclone]

I agree with CZ that one is most likely with about and equal chance of 0 or 2.

[gigabite]

I have watching the multisat.wv.stitched.Global at nrl. Seems like things are clouding up, and as the New Moon approaches the Moon, Venus, Mercury and of course the Sun align. Kicking up the potential energy by several percent. This issue will be around for the remainder of the 2014 hurricane season.

[cycloneye]

Here s a video about how things look for the rest of the season by Levi Cowan. Additional topics such as Typhoon Vongfong and something about El Nino are at the end of it.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... continues/

[TheStormExpert]

With the arrival of the MJO and the climatologically secondary smaller peak in the season taking place mid-late October this probably explains why it seems the Atlantic has suddenly somewhat lit up, especially with the Euro predicting a major hurricane in the SE Bahamas recurring out to sea in 10 days. So where was this all last month?

[floridasun78]

who say season was over it look like aug in topical now

[Hammy]

With the arrival of the MJO and the climatologically secondary smaller peak in the season taking place mid-late October this probably explains why it seems the Atlantic has suddenly somewhat lit up, especially with the Euro predicting a major hurricane in the SE Bahamas recurring out to sea in 10 days. So where was this all last month?

This is certainly a strange setup, it seems the back-loaded season many predicted last year may actually play out this year.

[weatherfanatic]

With all these new areas to watch I think we will have Fay shortly, 90L will probably be named and I think that next wave will be depicted by NHC which also has potential along with the carribbean so 2-4 more systems this year is possible. Including one major and if you believe in MU long range shows major hybrid storm up into northeast.

[Hammy]

Does anybody else see the irony that just a week ago several people were declaring the season absolutely over?

[cycloneye]

That is why the North Atlantic seasons end on November 30th on any kind of activity above,about or below average. And the saying "Never say never in the Tropics" applies bigtime at this moment.

[northjaxpro]

Well, the MJO has finally awakened the Atlantic basin it seems right now. Also, we are in the period where we do get a "secondary peak", a brief increase of activity during mid October on average each season. However, thankfully, unless we get a system moving north/northeast out of the Western Caribbean of what is left of this season, climatology suggests the Florida peninsula and the U.S. safe from impacts from tropical cyclones the rest of the way most of the time. However, there is a very recent exception to this, with Hurricane Sandy of course, where a Caribbean storm bucked climatology and impacted the U.S. very late in the season.

At least we have some activity out there to monitor and hopefully stay out to sea, although 90L currently could pose a threat to the Greater Antilles by early next week.

[SeGaBob]

If everyone looks on page 25 you'll see on October 1st what I said when people were being negative.

[Hammy]

If everyone looks on page 25 you'll see on October 1st what I said when people were being negative.

In addition to that, I posted the Euro run, which showed a decent storm on the ten day, so the model called it pretty good.

[gigabite]

October 10th might start a more conducive timeline.

This might be on pg 25. Just saying