Thoughts on rest of 2014 N Atlantic Hurricane season

[Hammy]

Exactly. What's so amazing about watching a frontal TS in the middle of nowhere?

So they can say see I told you the season wasn't dead and we would get another one or two storms in October.

What I see in this is that people say it'll be quiet, and nothing will form, then if something does, they can fall back on this and say it doesn't count because it's out in the middle of nowhere. Hardly scientific...

[ConvergenceZone]

Exactly. What's so amazing about watching a frontal TS in the middle of nowhere?

So they can say see I told you the season wasn't dead and we would get another one or two storms in October.

What I see in this is that people say it'll be quiet, and nothing will form, then if something does, they can fall back on this and say it doesn't count because it's out in the middle of nowhere. Hardly scientific...

Hammy, I know you said before that when the storms do form that the people who don't think they will won't be found on the board, or something like that.....But that also works on the flipside....We'll see if those folks that say there will be more storms will be found posting if no storms form at all...... ....Because I have seen that happen too!

[gigabite]

My analog based guess included the years 1977,2011,2013 which all had around 5 Tropical Storms in the back third of the hurricane season. With the "en Nino" like rainfall along the Gulf Coast and the NAO 5 year moving average dropping like a rock, a downward adjustment in total season expectations of 25% would put my guess at 11/4/1.

[wxman57]

My analog based guess included the years 1977,2011,2013 which all had around 5 Tropical Storms in the back third of the hurricane season. With the "en Nino" like rainfall along the Gulf Coast and the NAO 5 year moving average dropping like a rock, a downward adjustment in total season expectations of 25% would put my guess at 11/4/1.

11/4/1 for THIS season? Or next? More like 5/4/1 to 7/4/1 for this year. I think we could see another weak storm or two in October, but that's it.

[WeatherGuesser]

1997 even had two storms in October, so I'm agreeing with it not being over until Nov 30.

Well, there have been December storms. Not often, but still .....

[Yellow Evan]

My analog based guess included the years 1977,2011,2013 which all had around 5 Tropical Storms in the back third of the hurricane season. With the "en Nino" like rainfall along the Gulf Coast and the NAO 5 year moving average dropping like a rock, a downward adjustment in total season expectations of 25% would put my guess at 11/4/1.

2013 had 5 storms after this date, but 4 after tomorrow. 2011 had 2, inclduing 1 in the Carb, which is highly unlikely to span a hurricane due to the shear. 1977 had 2 high latitude systems after this date. I would not consider 2011 a good analog anyway. I'd say something like 1994 or 1986 (both late season developing El Ninos, since we pretty much have a very weak one).

[psyclone]

My analog based guess included the years 1977,2011,2013 which all had around 5 Tropical Storms in the back third of the hurricane season. With the "en Nino" like rainfall along the Gulf Coast and the NAO 5 year moving average dropping like a rock, a downward adjustment in total season expectations of 25% would put my guess at 11/4/1.

11/4/1 for THIS season? Or next? More like 5/4/1 to 7/4/1 for this year. I think we could see another weak storm or two in October, but that's it.

I think that's a very reasonable assessment and concur.

[gigabite]

My analog based guess included the years 1977,2011,2013 which all had around 5 Tropical Storms in the back third of the hurricane season. With the "en Nino" like rainfall along the Gulf Coast and the NAO 5 year moving average dropping like a rock, a downward adjustment in total season expectations of 25% would put my guess at 11/4/1.

2013 had 5 storms after this date, but 4 after tomorrow. 2011 had 2, inclduing 1 in the Carb, which is highly unlikely to span a hurricane due to the shear. 1977 had 2 high latitude systems after this date. I would not consider 2011 a good analog anyway. I'd say something like 1994 or 1986 (both late season developing El Ninos, since we pretty much have a very weak one).

I don't like to use any analogs pre-GOES11, but it is what it is, and 1977 is a response variable. In any event 2014 may have further to go

[gigabite]

My analog based guess included the years 1977,2011,2013 which all had around 5 Tropical Storms in the back third of the hurricane season. With the "en Nino" like rainfall along the Gulf Coast and the NAO 5 year moving average dropping like a rock, a downward adjustment in total season expectations of 25% would put my guess at 11/4/1.

11/4/1 for THIS season? Or next? More like 5/4/1 to 7/4/1 for this year. I think we could see another weak storm or two in October, but that's it.

I think that's a very reasonable assessment and concur.

I am watching global water vapor rise, and the SST haven't really clicked down. We just have to wait and see.

[Yellow Evan]

11/4/1 for THIS season? Or next? More like 5/4/1 to 7/4/1 for this year. I think we could see another weak storm or two in October, but that's it.

I think that's a very reasonable assessment and concur.

I am watching global water vapor rise, and the SST haven't really clicked down. We just have to wait and see.

Vertical instability has improved throughout the season, and SST's in the subtrops have cooled slightly (those two are related), which means more downward motion in the deep tropics. If the subtropical jet lowers more, we'd see more cooling in the subtrops, increasing upward motion and lower wind shear, leading to an active 2015 provided El Nino itself goes away before then, allowing shear to decrease. At this point, with the Cape Verde season over, it is too little too late to save 2014. 2015 is still up for grabs though.

[gigabite]

My analog based guess included the years 1977,2011,2013 which all had around 5 Tropical Storms in the back third of the hurricane season. With the "en Nino" like rainfall along the Gulf Coast and the NAO 5 year moving average dropping like a rock, a downward adjustment in total season expectations of 25% would put my guess at 11/4/1.

11/4/1 for THIS season? Or next? More like 5/4/1 to 7/4/1 for this year. I think we could see another weak storm or two in October, but that's it.

My final guess for 2015 is 19-10-2.

[Yellow Evan]

My final guess for 2015 is 19-10-2.

That sounds a lot like 2012. But tbh, it's too early to put numbers on 2014 IMHO.

[gigabite]

My final guess for 2015 is 19-10-2.

That sounds a lot like 2012. But tbh, it's too early to put numbers on 2014 IMHO.

My methodology is an empirical analog that I hypothesized in 2007. I believe that my guesses are in the top quartile.
I can guess out as far out in time as the ephemeris will let me. For the Moon that would be almost 1000 years.

The basis for my methodology can be found here

[wxman57]

Out of curiosity, I wanted to know if there have been any seasons when the last named storm dissipated on or before September 19th (Edouard this year). Looking back through 1900, the last date of a named storm is sometimes in September or early October. The 1918, 1917 and 1914 seasons are highly suspect, as it is quite likely a storm may have been missed later in September or in October/November. But there have been recent years where the last storm dissipated in early October.

1918 – Sept. 14
1914 – Sept. 19
2014 - Sept. 19
1993 – Sept. 21
1960 – Sept. 27
1917/1983 – Sept. 30
2006 – Oct. 3

The last storm of this season dissipated on September 19th, which would tie for second place as the earliest ending season (since 1900).

[ConvergenceZone]

Out of curiosity, I wanted to know if there have been any seasons when the last named storm dissipated on or before September 19th (Edouard this year). Looking back through 1900, the last date of a named storm is sometimes in September or early October. The 1918, 1917 and 1914 seasons are highly suspect, as it is quite likely a storm may have been missed later in September or in October/November. But there have been recent years where the last storm dissipated in early October.

1918 – Sept. 14
1914 – Sept. 19
2014 - Sept. 19
1993 – Sept. 21
1960 – Sept. 27
1917/1983 – Sept. 30
2006 – Oct. 3

The last storm of this season dissipated on September 19th, which would tie for second place as the earliest ending season (since 1900).

Excellent point WXMAN, and that's why people can't say for sure that there will be more storms yet before the season ends.....I think it's POSSIBLE that 2014 may be added to that list of storms above.. But with that said, I still think that 1 more storm is possible....

[OneIron]

Out of curiosity, I wanted to know if there have been any seasons when the last named storm dissipated on or before September 19th (Edouard this year). Looking back through 1900, the last date of a named storm is sometimes in September or early October. The 1918, 1917 and 1914 seasons are highly suspect, as it is quite likely a storm may have been missed later in September or in October/November. But there have been recent years where the last storm dissipated in early October.

1918 – Sept. 14
1914 – Sept. 19
2014 - Sept. 19
1993 – Sept. 21
1960 – Sept. 27
1917/1983 – Sept. 30
2006 – Oct. 3

The last storm of this season dissipated on September 19th, which would tie for second place as the earliest ending season (since 1900).

How late did those two season start? Were they late starters like 2014, too?

[Hammy]

The Euro is hinting at something in the central Atlantic at the end of the run, so some sort of subtropical development (similar to Melissa last year) wouldn't be out of the question for mid-October.

[Cyclenall]

What I see in this is that people say it'll be quiet, and nothing will form, then if something does, they can fall back on this and say it doesn't count because it's out in the middle of nowhere. Hardly scientific...

To cover that I just state the season will be lame/uninteresting which is certainly is to me personally. If one finds every storm fascinating this year that's cool, because next year you'll either be satisfied again or flip out with excitement.

At this point, with the Cape Verde season over, it is too little too late to save 2014. 2015 is still up for grabs though.

I'd like to know who thought 2014 was salvageable in the first place.

My methodology is an empirical analog that I hypothesized in 2007. I believe that my guesses are in the top quartile.
I can guess out as far out in time as the ephemeris will let me. For the Moon that would be almost 1000 years.

The basis for my methodology can be found here

The first paragraph on that image is a run-on paragraph with a lot of capitals throughout. How far does the ephemeris let you go?

[Hurricaneman]

October or later Caribbean tropical cyclones{Named Storms} formations since 1900

2005 Wilma 185mph
1998 Mitch 180mph
1924 Hurricane10 165mph
1961 Hattie 160mph
1999 Lenny 155mph
1952 Fox 150mph
1926 Hurricane10 150mph
1910 Hurricane5 150mph
2008 Paloma 145mph
1944 Hurricane13 145mph
2001 Michelle 140mph
1921 Hurricane6 140mph
2008 Omar 130mph
1950 King 130mph
1964 Isbell 125mph
1948 Hurricane9 125mph
1933 Hurricane17 125mph
1909 Hurricane11 120mph
1906 Hurricane8 120mph
1905 Hurricane4 120mph
2012 Sandy 115mph
2011 Rina 115mph
2005 Beta 115mph
1996 Lili 115mph
1995 Roxanne 115mph
1955 Katie 115mph
1934 Hurricane13 115mph
1912 Hurricane7 115mph
1999 Irene 110mph
1922 Hurricane4 110mph
1916 Hurricane14 110mph
2010 Paula 105mph
2009 Ida 105mph
1969 Laurie 105mph
1947 Hurricane9 105mph
1909 Hurricane12 105mph
1908 Hurricane 9 105mph
2010 Richard 100mph
1980 Jeanne 100mph
1946 Hurricane6 100mph
1945 Hurricane11 100mph
1912 Hurricane6 100mph
1984 Klaus 90mph
1969 Martha 90mph
1958 Janice 90mph
1945 Hurricane10 90mph
1939 Hurricane6 90mph
1933 Hurricane18 90mph
1994 Gordon 85mph
1981 Katrina 85mph
1968 Gladys 85mph
1935 Hurricane6 85mph
2007 Noel 80mph
2005 Stan 80mph
1959 Judith 80mph
1954 Alice 80mph
1951 Item 80mph
1940 Hurricane8 80mph
1924 Hurricane11 80mph
1906 Hurricane11 80mph
1904 Hurricane4 80mph
1996 Marco 75mph
1987 Floyd 75mph
1913 Hurricane6 75mph
1996 Josephine 70mph
1988 Keith 70mph
1973 Gilda 70mph
1971 Laura 70mph
1961 Gerda 70mph
1953 Hazel 70mph
1944 TS14 70mph
1932 TS11 70mph
1916 TS15 70mph
2013 Karen 65mph
2003 Odette 65mph
1949 TS16 65mph
1931 TS11 65mph
1925 TS4 65mph
1989 Karen 60mph
1977 Frieda 60mph
1934 TS11 60mph
1933 TS20 60mph
2005 Alpha 50mph
2005 Gamma 50mph
1996 Kyle 50mph
1931 TS12 50mph
1922 TS5 50mph
1991 Fabian 45mph
1969 Jenny 45mph
1953 TS10 45mph
1943 TS10 45mph
1934 TS12 45mph
1931 TS10 45mph
1927 TS6 45mph
1927 TS7 45mph
1999 Katrina 40mph
1964 TS12 40mph
1926 TS9 40mph
1926 TS11 40mph

99 named storms from the Caribbean from October and later
64 became hurricanes
28 became major hurricanes
4 bcame cat 5 hurricanes

and this type of system has formed every year in October since 2007 and based on the models starting to show some support as the Euro seems to be starting to jump aboard for this area it could get quite interesting if the models are to be believed

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[gigabite]

I'd like to know who thought 2014 was salvageable in the first place.

My methodology is an empirical analog that I hypothesized in 2007. I believe that my guesses are in the top quartile.
I can guess out as far out in time as the ephemeris will let me. For the Moon that would be almost 1000 years.

The basis for my methodology can be found here

The first paragraph on that image is a run-on paragraph with a lot of capitals throughout. How far does the ephemeris let you go?

First I make a guess about a season using an analog based on the position mid summer new moon then I revise the guess using the ESNO. When I have time I will back test for 30 years. At that time I can use the Central Limit Theorem to establish a probability for the methodology and get a better preseason number. I use the NASA Horizons ephemeris. It has a range of 3000 bce to 3000ce.

My gut feeling is 2014 is over. My methodology says 6 more storms. My most recent analog has 4 more storms. The October New Moon is S 10, W140. The New Moon over water for the full 7 days of the phase and 7 days before that. That is a positive for more evaporation, and there is a lot of water west of that. The mechanism is far enough east that it may might not get caught up in the Kelvin Wave activity currently pounding the East Pacific, and may feed into the Hadley Circulation. October 10th might start a more conducive timeline.