Ex-94L

[floridasun78]

look like ex 94l trying come back central carribbean today

[TheStormExpert]

look like ex 94l trying come back central carribbean today http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/vis-l.jpg

Where? All I see are disorganized sheared scattered clouds located in the Eastern Caribbean.

[floridasun78]

look like ex 94l trying come back central carribbean today http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/vis-l.jpg

Where? All I see are disorganized sheared scattered clouds located in the Eastern Caribbean.

you can see spin on loop as move west storm trying form as move plus got storms and friday

[Hurricaneman]

look like ex 94l trying come back central carribbean today http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/vis-l.jpg

Where? All I see are disorganized sheared scattered clouds located in the Eastern Caribbean.

you can see spin on loop as move west storm trying form as move plus got storms and friday

While I see nothing imminent this may need to be watched farther west in the western Caribbean or even the EPAC as some models do something with it over there

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[chaser1]

Never know, could be something to watch providing it doesn't get tangled up with land. More interesting to me is the large envelope wave further east at 37W and 12N. Nothing here is going to happen fast and probably needing to shake out some dust, but perhaps a tad bit of evidence of increased convection and moisture?

[Sanibel]

Will negative conditions prevail or will this break the dry cap?

[Sanibel]

So far the Atlantic is not supporting formation.

[northjaxpro]

The satellite image above on this page really tells the story doesn't it? Hardly any concentrated convection showing up anywhere throughout the basin, courtesy of all the stable, sinking dry air and virtual lack of vertical instability.

It is quite remarkable how stable it is out there at this time. Definitely no development of any tropical cyclones any time soon.

[chaser1]

Will negative conditions prevail or will this break the dry cap?

I think a good analogy would be one involving a boxing match with two heavyweight fighters. The present champion ('Ol Uncle Sal, LOL) WILL prevail as champion this match (2014). However, the weaker competitor (hey, I didn't have a name for that dude, so I just had to use "Mr. Winter", LOL) will likely have gotten in a couple good jabs on SAL, probably even one or two solid upper-cuts to briefly weaken SAL. In fact, SAL might briefly let his guard down and he may find himself getting tagged with one heck of a "haymaker"!! Over-all though, SAL's stamina and greater strength will most likely have him will the match. Question is whether he'll win by knock-out or after losing a couple rounds, whether he'll win by decision.

Of course, SAL is only one of many variables. Despite it, El Nino or anything else.... the question at hand is not really the broad picture of what type of Atlantic season we will continue to have, it is really where might those one or two Hurricanes form where within that brief and relatively small sweet spot of conducive conditions, might something either spin up so quickly that people might have limited awareness and/or simply because that one particular storm was strong enough to cause considerable damage or loss of life. Forget Hurricane Andrew, that was an extreme scenario. There's no question that a strong Cat. 2 or maybe a Cat. 3 hurricane hitting Houston, Tampa, Charleston, or Boston (or hundreds of other spots along the US or Canadian coastline) could be a very significant event. Depending on other variables, such a hurricane making landfall in the Caribbean or Central America could easily causing many deaths and homeless.

Looking at it purely as a weather or severe weather enthusiast, one needs to accept the larger picture yet realize that there WILL be further Tropical Storm development this season. In fact, while the NHC is using the new 48 hour/5 day forecast.... i'll take it one step further. 10%/20%/95%. These percentages apply to no one specific invest or area of disturbed weather, but simply to ANY tropical development within the Atlantic Basin for 48hours/5 days/Nov. 30 (end of season). "SOMETHING", perhaps several other storms will form prior to the end of the season. Even if none are stronger than a Cat. 2, the question still remains "where" do they hit.