Tropical Wave off Central America (Is Invest 92E)

[somethingfunny]

not sure this will be intense enough to survive the full distance to California. Models are showing cat 3 or cat 4 at peak. We probably would need a cat 5 at peak UNLESS this were to end up going up the Gulf of California and then into Arizona

As a TS or an actual hurricane?

it's questionable whether or not a hurricane could physically landfall in the L.A. area but a TS certainly could make it as far north as L.A. (it did in 1939). A weak TS might be more of a blessing than a curse- it would surely cause some damage caused by fallen trees, mudslides and some flash flooding but it would put a very early end to the fire season and make a major dent in the drought.

I'd be careful what you wish for and I don't even mean the flooding/mudslide threat.... If the center comes in over the Mojave, they would have strong northeast winds in SOCAL- fire winds. It happened to us in Texas with Tropical Storm Lee in 2011.

[Yellow Evan]

not sure this will be intense enough to survive the full distance to California. Models are showing cat 3 or cat 4 at peak. We probably would need a cat 5 at peak UNLESS this were to end up going up the Gulf of California and then into Arizona

As a TS or an actual hurricane?

it's questionable whether or not a hurricane could physically landfall in the L.A. area but a TS certainly could make it as far north as L.A. (it did in 1939). A weak TS might be more of a blessing than a curse- it would surely cause some damage caused by fallen trees, mudslides and some flash flooding but it would put a very early end to the fire season and make a major dent in the drought.

I'd be careful what you wish for and I don't even mean the flooding/mudslide threat.... If the center comes in over the Mojave, they would have strong northeast winds in SOCAL- fire winds. It happened to us in Texas with Tropical Storm Lee in 2011.

Well, that would ease the drought in the Mohave.

[CrazyC83]

If that monster goes over the southern Baja California peninsula, it would be absolutely historic for them...

[Yellow Evan]

If that monster goes over the southern Baja California peninsula, it would be absolutely historic for them...

Not sure if the setup will favor that. And even that a Cat 4 once passed over them. One of MX's worst TC's resulted and the third worst EPAC TC IMO.

[Kingarabian]

If that monster goes over the southern Baja California peninsula, it would be absolutely historic for them...

Models seem to be trending East.

[Equilibrium]

At 66 hrs looks a cane..


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[Yellow Evan]

If that monster goes over the southern Baja California peninsula, it would be absolutely historic for them...

Models seem to be trending East.

Let me do some amateur analysis of the set up.



We have some troughs at high latitude only and neither really favor much of a landfall. There is a ULL though near California, but for now, I'd be surprised if it was enough to bring it over the peninsula.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Equilibrium]

simulation WRF

[gatorcane]

The ECMWF shows a pretty strong ridge over Western North America by day 10, with a trough in the east. In that setup, I would think this system no matter how strong would head NW or WNW offshore Baja California



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS rolling out as we speak. Really pumped for this one.

[Yellow Evan]

So far looks less bullish than last run



vs.




Edit: GFS calls for a major, and still pretty intense, just not the 940 mbar shown earlier



For this run, the track is a bit more NE. However, a ridge arrives just in time to send it W, and after around day 7, the track shifts a bit more to the W.

[Yellow Evan]

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the far eastern
Pacific are associated with a tropical wave moving off the coast of
Central America. Low pressure is expected to form south of the
Gulf of Tehuantepec by late Wednesday, and environmental conditions
appear conducive for the low to become a tropical depression by the
weekend while it moves west-northwestward off the coast of
southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[cycloneye]

Compared to past runs,the 06Z GFS was a tad weaker but still has a very strong hurricane.

[cycloneye]

A large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms located
over the far eastern Pacific is associated with a tropical wave.
A low pressure system is expected to form south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec during the next day or two, and environmental conditions
are conducive for the low to become a tropical depression by the
weekend while it moves west-northwestward off the coast of
southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[gatorcane]

ECMWF, a little weaker it looks like but still formidable. Keeps the ridging over the SW United States that should keep it offshore, if this model verifies:

[Yellow Evan]

6z GFS

[CrazyC83]

Definitely seems to be consensus on something big...

[cycloneye]

A large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms located
several hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is associated
with a tropical wave. A low pressure system is expected to form
well south of the coast of Mexico during the next day or two, and
environmental conditions are conducive for the low to become a
tropical depression by the weekend while it moves toward the
west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS. Continuing SW shift.

[Kingarabian]

12Z Euro essentially the same. Still calls for a very strong hurricane.