Convection in SW Caribbean

[Hurricaneman]

Looks interesting, looks like it may end up an EPAC system

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, this disturbance has really flared today with deep convection. Looking at satellite imagery, it certainly appears that it has an anticyclone over it or very nearby as you can already see outflow with this system. Also a rather potentailly large system as well, as most are in the monsoonal trough region. This will probably be the next invest over in the Eastern Pacific and likely will be the next tropical cyclone in that basin down the road in a few days if it stays intact.

BTW this thread should be the SW Caribbean.

[Yellow Evan]

Probs too close to the larger AOI to the west.

[northjaxpro]

Probs too close to the larger AOI to the west.

Yeah, good point. You would think that the larger invest to the west may have an impact on this disturbance. Depends on how fast the invest to the west is moving.Also, the models really explode that invest into a very formidable tropical cyclone as well in a couple of days.

Edit: Thanks cycloneye for editing the title of this thread.

[Yellow Evan]

Probs too close to the larger AOI to the west.

Yeah, good point. You would think that the larger invest to the west may have an impact on this disturbance. Depends on how fast the invest to the west is moving.Also, the models really explode that invest into a very formidable tropical cyclone as well in a couple of days.

Edit: Thanks cycloneye for editing the title of this thread.

It's not an invest yet.

I think it'll merge with future Marie. Next EPAC threat will be what ever voracity of the CATL mess makes it to the EPAC. Or due to MJO, we could see an ITCZ breakdown.


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[northjaxpro]

LOL. Yeah I jumped the gun did I. Thanks Yellow Evan for the correction. I still think NHC will make that AOI west of the SW Caribbean disturbance an invest though very shortly.