2014 TCRs

[Hammy]

I'm starting to wonder if the extremely late release of Cristobal may mean significant intensity changes given how much drone data there may be

[CrazyC83]

I'm starting to wonder if the extremely late release of Cristobal may mean significant intensity changes given how much drone data there may be

That's possible.

I am thinking Genevieve is last due to the different agencies involved.

[CrazyC83]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL042014_Cristobal.pdf

Cristobal now out - not a great deal of change.

[CrazyC83]

I'd have personally made the following changes:

* Peak intensity: I would have raised it considerably. That is because when Recon existed, the intensity was consistently well above Dvorak (at least 10-15 kt higher, especially with the SFMR). In addition, Dvorak isn't that great at higher latitudes either when frontal issues come into play. As a result, with some uncertainty, I would have set the peak intensity at 85 kt.

* Genesis: Given the satellite imagery shortly after Recon left (T2.5) confirmed by the next Recon flight, I'd move genesis up to 0000Z August 23, and also based on ASCAT and surface data at that time, I would have declared it a 35 kt tropical storm right there.

[galaxy401]

Sorry for the absence. So Dolly, Douglas, Sixteen-E, and Genevieve are the remaining storms. Wonder why some of the weaker storms are taking awhile.

[CrazyC83]

Honestly not sure why, unless there is no particular order?

I think they are awaiting additional data for Genevieve, but the others seem odd.

[galaxy401]

Dolly and Sixteen-E are now out. Atlantic is finished then.

It should be noted that it appears that Dolly's report has been finished for almost a month. They also said that it was possible 16-E may have been a TS briefly but too ambiguous.

[CrazyC83]

Post-analysis upgrades of depressions to storms (and vice versa) are extremely rare.

[Yellow Evan]

I don't buy the NHC's argument of keeping 16E a TD. ADT was around T2.7, ASCAt gave 33 knts, and TAFB was 2.5. How much more proof do you need?

[Hurricane Jed]

Genevieve's TCR is out

[CrazyC83]

Genevieve only completed for the NHC territory though. It could be a while before the final TCR is released there incorporating CPHC and JMA/JTWC territory as well.

[CrazyC83]

I don't buy the NHC's argument of keeping 16E a TD. ADT was around T2.7, ASCAt gave 33 knts, and TAFB was 2.5. How much more proof do you need?

That data would support a 40 kt intensity. I think we should maybe ask the NHC that?

[Yellow Evan]

I don't buy the NHC's argument of keeping 16E a TD. ADT was around T2.7, ASCAt gave 33 knts, and TAFB was 2.5. How much more proof do you need?

That data would support a 40 kt intensity. I think we should maybe ask the NHC that?

I believe SAB was 2.0 though. I think 35 knts is fair. Not sure about 40.

[CrazyC83]

I don't buy the NHC's argument of keeping 16E a TD. ADT was around T2.7, ASCAt gave 33 knts, and TAFB was 2.5. How much more proof do you need?

That data would support a 40 kt intensity. I think we should maybe ask the NHC that?

I believe SAB was 2.0 though. I think 35 knts is fair. Not sure about 40.

A 5 kt difference is within the margin of error for storms without Recon, which is probably their explanation. Although the ASCAT has a low bias, hence my thinking of 40 kt in line with the ADT.

[Yellow Evan]

I believe SAB was 2.0 though. I think 35 knts is fair. Not sure about 40.

A 5 kt difference is within the margin of error for storms without Recon, which is probably their explanation. Although the ASCAT has a low bias, hence my thinking of 40 kt in line with the ADT.

Well, by that argument, 40 knts is also within the margin of error. No need to go lower. Go with the best evidence.

[CrazyC83]

Douglas now out and the EPAC is complete. Now we wait for the CPHC...

45 kt is probably generous for Douglas IMO, since large, weak, sprawling storms are often over-estimated by Dvorak.