Tropical Wave SW of CV Islands (Is Invest 97L)

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Tropical Wave SW of CV Islands (Is Invest 97L)

#1 Postby somethingfunny » Sat Aug 23, 2014 1:38 am

This wave leaving Africa looks pretty healthy and already has some spin to it

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After detecting it at 12z, the 0z UKMET is developing it again.

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So is the Canadian:

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And the NAVGEM.

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GFS and Euro are showing nothing with this system as of right now. I had noticed on some previous GFS runs while looking at 96L/Cristobal however, that it has previously been developing something out in the MDR in this timeframe.

The SAL looks as conducive as it has all season and the MJO pulse is still in our basin, and of course September starts next week. I think this one has a pretty decent shot at development.
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#2 Postby weathernerdguy » Sat Aug 23, 2014 8:44 am

I've seen it too for the runs for 96L
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#3 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Sat Aug 23, 2014 8:45 am

Yeah, lot of models developing this one. Something to watch for sure as we head into the climo peak.
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#4 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Aug 23, 2014 9:17 am

Is this the one models have been showing exiting Africa at a high latitude?
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Tropical wave at 32W 12N

#5 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Aug 24, 2014 12:01 am

this seems to have a little spin with it and the GFS seems to have a sharp wave for most of the run so maybe this could be one of those sneaky ones

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#6 Postby abajan » Sun Aug 24, 2014 5:31 am

Looks good for now and considering climatology it certainly bears watching.
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Re: Tropical wave at 32W 12N

#7 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Aug 24, 2014 6:34 am

What I take from this is the GFS does barely anything with it but seems to be close to closing a weak low in the lesser Antilles but seems to be more robust with more mid level vorticty with it so it does bear watching

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Re: Tropical wave at 32W 12N

#8 Postby perk » Sun Aug 24, 2014 7:58 am

Hurricaneman wrote:What I take from this is the GFS does barely anything with it but seems to be close to closing a weak low in the lesser Antilles but seems to be more robust with more mid level vorticty with it so it does bear watching

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I think this is the wave the CMC is developing.
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#9 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 24, 2014 12:38 pm

NHC 2pm EST TWO:

1. A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cape
Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and a few
thunderstorms. Unfavorable upper-level winds and proximity to dry
air are expected to inhibit development during the next few days.
However, environmental conditions could become more conducive by the
end of the week while the system moves westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.


Image

IR SAT, saved image:

Image
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Re: Tropical wave at 32W 12N

#10 Postby somethingfunny » Sun Aug 24, 2014 12:49 pm

This is the same wave that I made a thread for and posted some model runs in. Can we merge?

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=116643
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Re: Tropical wave at 32W 12N

#11 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 24, 2014 12:54 pm

somethingfunny wrote:This is the same wave that I made a thread for and posted some model runs in. Can we merge?

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=116643

I believe these should be merged and a moderator will likely do so soon.

Looking at the global models, they are not showing any troughs in the Western Atlantic out through the next 180 hours. It's possible Cristobal gets strong enough as shown by the NAVGEM and ECMWF that would allow this to recurve somewhere between round 60W, however, the GFS and GEM models don't show enough of a weakness and bring this system much further west.

A system we will need to watch as we head towards the climatological peak.
Last edited by gatorcane on Sun Aug 24, 2014 12:59 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of CV Islands

#12 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 24, 2014 12:56 pm

Merged the two topics. Hurricaneman,there was a thread made about the same area of interest before you made it so I merged them.
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of CV Islands

#13 Postby Riptide » Sun Aug 24, 2014 1:48 pm

This one really holds my interest strongly, due to the longwave setup after Cristobal departs and the possibility of this remaining weak until 60W.
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of CV Islands

#14 Postby SFLcane » Sun Aug 24, 2014 1:50 pm

Canadian with new system heading WNW...

Image
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of CV Islands

#15 Postby floridasun78 » Sun Aug 24, 2014 2:13 pm

SFLcane wrote:Canadian with new system heading WNW...

Image

that 1012 low?
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#16 Postby SeGaBob » Sun Aug 24, 2014 2:16 pm

I feel strongly that this one will recurve as well...if there's any way at all they'll find it.




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Re:

#17 Postby floridasun78 » Sun Aug 24, 2014 2:21 pm

SeGaBob wrote:I feel strongly that this one will recurve as well...if there's any way at all they'll find it.




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likely it will
Last edited by floridasun78 on Sun Aug 24, 2014 2:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#18 Postby floridasun78 » Sun Aug 24, 2014 2:22 pm

ok this now 97l??? mod need move this active page
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of CV Islands

#19 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 24, 2014 2:24 pm

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