2013 Typhoon Season and STY Haiyan reports out!

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euro6208
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2013 Typhoon Season and STY Haiyan reports out!

#1 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 23, 2014 4:49 am

Image

For the first time since 2004, above average tropical cyclone activity was observed in the western North
Pacific Ocean, with only 33 TCs observed compared to the long term average of 31. There were five cyclones
that reached super typhoon intensity, with Super Typhoon 31W (Haiyan) being one of the strongest cyclones
on record for the western North Pacific basin. Devastating season with over 6,800 casualties.



Complete detailed analysis on Super Typhoon Haiyan starts on Page 66...

After achieving the highest sustained winds of any tropical cyclone at 170 knots with dvorak maxing out at 8.0, Haiyan weakened slightly before making landfall with 165 knots (190 mph) which is debatable since it could have been as high as 180-185 knots and i don't recall witnessing any weakening...

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Haiyan at 150 knots just north of Kayangel Palau...

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Strengthening right up to landfall...


http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/atcr/2013atcr.pdf
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Re: 2013 Typhoon Season and STY Haiyan reports out!

#2 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 23, 2014 4:54 am

It could have been as low as 165 knots or as high as 185 knots at landfall doesn't matter, Haiyan will be remembered for ages! Truly devastating and record breaking storm...
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#3 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Aug 23, 2014 11:38 am

If only we had Recon available for Haiyan...that would have helped a lot. That was definitely THE storm of 2013, and even for WPAC standards, one of the greatest storms ever...
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Re: 2013 Typhoon Season and STY Haiyan reports out!

#4 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 23, 2014 11:53 am

Comparing Haiyan and Megi from 2010 which had recon showed that Megi peaked at 165 knots. (1st image)
2nd typhoon in 3 years to peak at 165 knots or above...

Image

STY MEGI APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED A PEAK INTENSITY OF
160 TO 165 KNOTS BETWEEN 17/12Z AND 17/18Z, BASED ON 171115Z AND
171206Z AIRCRAFT VORTEX MESSAGES INDICATING 163 KNOT MAXIMUM SURFACE
WINDS AND A MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 893 MB


VDM from Recon had 165 knots with a pressure of 890mb. What more with Haiyan? :eek:

Forgotten Megi...
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#5 Postby galaxy401 » Sat Aug 23, 2014 1:00 pm

Haiyan was truly a monster.

I do not disagree that Haiyan weakened slightly before landfall as the cloud tops did warm very slightly before landfall. Still was very powerful though.
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Re: 2013 Typhoon Season and STY Haiyan reports out!

#6 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 23, 2014 1:04 pm

165 knots or 190 mph found in Megi...Haiyan? :eek:

Product: Vortex Message (URPA12 PGUA)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 12:23Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 304)
Storm Number: 30
Storm Name: Megi (flight in the Northwest Pacific basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 15
A. Time of Center Fix: 17th day of the month at 12:06:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18°01'N 125°05'E (18.0167N 125.0833E) (View map)
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,151m (7,057ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 152kts (~ 174.9mph)E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 7 nautical miles (8 statute miles) to the S (178°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 266° at 152kts (From the W at ~ 174.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 7 nautical miles (8 statute miles) to the S (178°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 893mb (26.37 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,048m (10,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,041m (9,977ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Wind Outbound: 190kts (~ 218.6mph) in the northwest quadrant at 12:09:10Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 190kts (~ 218.6mph) in the northwest quadrant at 12:09:10Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 19°C (66°F) which was observed 5 nautical miles to the NW (325°) from the flight level center
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN THE EYEWALL

The aircraft measured winds at flight level (8,000 feet) of 220 mph. The SFMR surface wind measurement instrument recorded surface winds of 186 mph in regions where heavy rain was not contaminating the measurement, but found surface winds of 199 mph in one region of heavy rain. Now, this measurement is considered contaminated by rain, but at very high wind speeds, the contamination effect is less important than at lower hurricane wind speeds, and it is possible than Megi's surface winds are close to a sustained 200 mph. This is supported by the flight level winds of 220 mph, which support surface winds of 199 mph, using the usual 10% reduction rule of thumb.
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Re: 2013 Typhoon Season and STY Haiyan reports out!

#7 Postby euro6208 » Sat Aug 23, 2014 1:10 pm

Image
Image
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#8 Postby Alyono » Sun Aug 24, 2014 7:03 am

winds in Megi supported 170-175 kts. Not sure where 165 kts came from
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#9 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Aug 24, 2014 7:18 am

Let us not talk about Megi here, it is all about Haiyan.

Regarding Haiyan, why were the wind speeds downgraded from 170 kts to 165 kts before landfall?
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Re:

#10 Postby euro6208 » Sun Aug 24, 2014 8:08 am

xtyphooncyclonex wrote:Let us not talk about Megi here, it is all about Haiyan.

Regarding Haiyan, why were the wind speeds downgraded from 170 kts to 165 kts before landfall?


This was more organized than Megi at her peak of 170 to 175 knots which recon found so clearly landfall for haiyan was somewhere between 180-190 knots...and cloud tops even more savage than Megis'...

This strengthen all the way up to landfall so I don't know why it was lowered...

I let the pro mets answer that for you... :lol:
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#11 Postby Alyono » Sun Aug 24, 2014 8:22 am

jtwc... enough said. Not an official agency
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Re:

#12 Postby euro6208 » Sun Aug 24, 2014 8:37 am

Alyono wrote:jtwc... enough said. Not an official agency


At least they are more right with their 170 knots wind speed which corresponds with 8.0...

Official JMA's peak for Haiyan?......Only 125 knots (10 min)... :lol:
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#13 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Aug 24, 2014 8:47 am

Can we also NOT HAVE DISPUTES with the intensity? JMA's basis for intensity seems to be the pressure and is the same with JTWC's pressure estimate...
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#14 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Aug 24, 2014 9:24 am

122 knts is the top of the JMA scale. I don't know how they figured out that 122 knts is the strongest a TC could go even in 10-min and even if that is the case, why is Tip at 140 knts. Did Megi get a 8.0 rating from JMA?
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Re:

#15 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Aug 24, 2014 9:39 am

Yellow Evan wrote:122 knts is the top of the JMA scale. I don't know how they figured out that 122 knts is the strongest a TC could go even in 10-min and even if that is the case, why is Tip at 140 knts. Did Megi get a 8.0 rating from JMA?

Koba scale has many errors, making it underestimate the wind speeds of powerful storms but gives the right atmospheric pressure estimates. I agree that the pressure is at 895 hPa and that the storm was at low latitude. Are there constraints perhaps? Its fast forward speed might also mean that Haiyan had higher winds; the JMA should indeed increase its wind estimate for Haiyan.
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Re: 2013 Typhoon Season and STY Haiyan reports out!

#16 Postby euro6208 » Sun Aug 24, 2014 9:55 am

Anyways back to topic...

Could it be possible that Haiyan is both the strongest and strongest at landfall worldwide?

I mean it strengthening all the way to landfall...

I'm thinking 180 to 190 knots...Slightly higher than Dvorak and comparing this to Megi when recon found 170-175 knots...

:double:
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Re: 2013 Typhoon Season and STY Haiyan reports out!

#17 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Aug 24, 2014 10:00 am

euro6208 wrote:Anyways back to topic...

Could it be possible that Haiyan is both the strongest and strongest at landfall worldwide?

I mean it strengthening all the way to landfall...

I'm thinking 180 to 190 knots...Slightly higher than Dvorak and comparing this to Megi when recon found 170-175 knots...

:double:

In terms of wind speeds, it is still strongest in the world to make landfall. While it was crossing between Cebu and Leyte, it was 160 knots which is very historic and powerful.
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#18 Postby Cyclenall » Mon Aug 25, 2014 3:01 am

Something I'm interested in is did any photos come out from the worst hit area in terms of highest winds (170 knots) that some claimed to have seen concrete structures obliterated? This was not from storm surge BTW. It seems like the most interesting tidbits nearly always gets lost in the fold.
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#19 Postby somethingfunny » Mon Aug 25, 2014 8:17 pm

What's the final report from Guinan?
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Re:

#20 Postby Cyclenall » Tue Aug 26, 2014 2:26 am

somethingfunny wrote:What's the final report from Guinan?

That's the place, Guinan. Hopefully someone got a collection of stories from the locals about surviving the typhoon in Guinan and translated them into English.
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