possibility of GOM action later in week? (is INVEST 98L)

[fwbbreeze]

Levi Cowen thinks it's a possibility.

From @Tropicaltidbits on Twitter....
The back-door front bringing me rain right now needs to be watched next 3 days in GOM, despite no model support (yet)

[somethingfunny]

The same ripe conditions that would have been available for Cristobal had it managed to get into the Gulf are still available for anything else that can slide into the Gulf, so definitely we should keep a close eye on it.

[NDG]

18z GFS shows a vorticity from the back door "cool" front tracking westward across the GOM with an UL anticyclone on top of it, could get interesting, GOM waters are very very warm but it shows it to track westward fairly fast may not be enough time over water to get organized.

[Ptarmigan]

If a cold front goes over the Gulf of Mexico, thunderstorms can form and they can become tropical in nature.

[Hurricaneman]

The GFS seems to be starting to show something weak but nothing more at this time but is showing more than the 18Z run

[LaBreeze]

The GFS seems to be starting to show something weak but nothing more at this time but is showing more than the 18Z run

What is the 18Z run showing, Hurricaneman? A local met briefly mentioned that we may need to keep an eye on this "system" moving out into the GOM. Just wondering and thanks in advance, Hurricaneman.

[somethingfunny]

The 00z CMC is doing some weird voodoo near the Texas Coast with this but it doesn't make any sense on the graphics so I'm not going to bother with posting it until it gains consistency.

[TexWx]

If this moisture wasn't just hauling it to the west, something may have a chance to get going.

[TexWx]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/mobile/sat_zoom/ge_gmex_loop.html

[NDG]

Is not the piece of energy over the north central gulf coast right now that needs to be watch, the piece of energy over the FL Peninsula this morning is the one that needs to be watched over the next couple of days as it moves westward across the GOM. Not much from the GFS & Euro but at least it passes the threshold of possibility for development by the crazy CMC.

[TexWx]

NDG, are you referring to the little "blow up" in the link I posted above, off the Florida Peninsula?

[Portastorm]

Whatever it is worth, JB is tweeting this morning that the NW Gulf is the area to watch this coming week from Wednesday onward. Referenced a piece of Cristobal's vorticity breaking off and has moved into the Gulf.

[crownweather]

RPM model seems to be picking up on this potential as well. This map is valid for Thursday morning.

[NDG]

NDG, are you referring to the little "blow up" in the link I posted above, off the Florida Peninsula?

Somewhat, there's trough of low pressure from the central gulf coast east towards central FL with an elongated vorticity at h85, it would need to consolidate quickly for it to do anything, it only has about 3-4 days over water before moving inland over TX.

[perk]

NDG, are you referring to the little "blow up" in the link I posted above, off the Florida Peninsula?

Somewhat, there's trough of low pressure from the central gulf coast east towards central FL with an elongated vorticity at h85, it would need to consolidate quickly for it to do anything, it only has about 3-4 days over water before moving inland over TX.

That's plenty enough time over the steam bath GOM.

[tropicwatch]

Nice blow up of showers in the northern gulf this morning.

[tolakram]

Live visible: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=28&lon=-90&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10

[TheStormExpert]

This setup seems similar to that of TS Edouard from 2008.

[tolakram]

Both Euro and GFS shown some increased vorticity moving from this location SW into the gulf before moving west into southern TX or northern Mexico. The Canadian develops this into a low pressure area.

My interpretation of the models, anyway.

[Steve]

Yeah, we threw this out a few times beginning thursday night (see below) around 9pm when models were showing faint echo(e)s of something crossing the Gulf this week. Initially it appeared to be the South or South Central Gulf. But I guess there is an eddy of some kind between the summertime upper high and the backdoor front. For those who insist we are in a winter pattern, sure, there is trough fairly far south, though it's been an awfully long time since we saw a winter backdoor front in SE LA. Usually in the winter, our weather comes from somewhere between West and North. Since the isobar ripples were farther south, I'm guessing something maybe following the trough splitting off would be the place to look (if this blowup wasn't want was being referenced in the models last week).

Also slightly interesting in the ensembles plot is the clustering of solutions in the SE Gulf. Several other models show isobars crossing the south/south central Gulf though not 96L. I'm wondering if a piece of energy (albeit mostly insignificant) doesn't show up as at least an area of disturbed weather early next week. There isn't much on the map, but several models do hint at something minor. Just something to watch for if 96L were to stay East of Florida.

Friday also from that thread:

As for the gulf system, we threw that out there yesterday. Several models showed rippled isobars, although not anything significant, crossing the south/south central Gulf. It didn't appear to be 96L as that was generally east of Florida in those runs. I figured it was remnant wave energy or possibly part of the forerunning system. It was just something to watch for To see if there was any energy down in the Gulf Monday. Increased shower chances for coastal Texas? Possibly. Stay tuned.