possibility of GOM action later in week? (is INVEST 98L)

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wxman57
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Re: possibility of GOM action later in week?

#141 Postby wxman57 » Wed Aug 27, 2014 5:37 am

Quite impressive this morning. Tight LLC and convection increasing rapidly. Might be classified as a TD shortly.
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#142 Postby greg_kfdm_tv » Wed Aug 27, 2014 6:11 am

Good morning Chris. Looks like one of those small, quick, spinups, the northwest Gulf is so famous for. I have the center from KHGX radar and offshore platforms near 27.4 north and 93.9 west. Winds look to only be about 20-25 knots max. Still quite a bit of west-southwest shear but I agree that it could become a TD as it moves generally west to west-southwest.
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Re: possibility of GOM action later in week?

#143 Postby JtSmarts » Wed Aug 27, 2014 6:14 am

Hmmm, wonder what the NHC will say at 8. They could dramatically increase develop chances from 10%.
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Re: possibility of GOM action later in week?

#144 Postby tailgater » Wed Aug 27, 2014 6:17 am

Moving a good bit slower this morning so it'll have more time over the warm gulf waters. Is the shear progged to conitue?
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#145 Postby greg_kfdm_tv » Wed Aug 27, 2014 6:20 am

Looks like the shear will generally continue...perhaps a little less by tonight. The shear should keep this in check but it would not surprise me if the disturbance became a TD.
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Re: possibility of GOM action later in week?

#146 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 27, 2014 6:21 am

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Re: possibility of GOM action later in week?

#147 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 27, 2014 6:35 am

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a weak low
pressure area located over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico has
increased during the past few hours. Some additional development is
possible before the system moves inland over southern Texas and
northern Mexico on Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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Re: possibility of GOM action later in week?

#148 Postby greg_kfdm_tv » Wed Aug 27, 2014 6:40 am

cycloneye wrote:Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a weak low
pressure area located over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico has
increased during the past few hours. Some additional development is
possible before the system moves inland over southern Texas and
northern Mexico on Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Well at least they doubled the chances :lol: .....I would put the chance for development much better than 20 percent.
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Re: possibility of GOM action later in week?

#149 Postby tailgater » Wed Aug 27, 2014 6:42 am

Wow I thought they would go higher than that. Recon is scheduled to lift off in about 5 hrs.
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Re: possibility of GOM action later in week?

#150 Postby perk » Wed Aug 27, 2014 6:46 am

wxman57 wrote:Quite impressive this morning. Tight LLC and convection increasing rapidly. Might be classified as a TD shortly.



wxman57 is ex 97L the system you think might develop in in caribbean later this weekend.
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Re: possibility of GOM action later in week?

#151 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 27, 2014 6:54 am

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Re: possibility of GOM action later in week?

#152 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 27, 2014 7:18 am

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