possibility of GOM action later in week? (is INVEST 98L)

[MGC]

No doubt that something is starting to spin up off the Louisiana coast. Rather limited convection near the center. Could this pull another Humberto?......MGC

[Alyono]

its not a tasked mission, probably a buoy drop and not an invest mission

[davidiowx]

the plane is going the wrong way as well

[Stormcenter]

Nice radar loop.


http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

[Steve]

Can't really find much of anything at the surface. Pressures seem to be rising at or near the TX/LA Coastlines (29.97s and 29.98s with some lower pressures but still rising closer to the spin - Shell #42361 was 29.92 and rising) so that says nothing much is happening at the surface. You can clearly see the spin which should bring at least some chances of rain to the central and upper TX coasts over the next few days as it continues to move west. NAM and GFS still hint at a secondary surge or low which I would assume would come from a wave migrating north with the pattern reversal as the trough from the backdoor front washes out. Not sure of much else, but NAM does show turning at landfall of the first low (the one currently south of the LA Coast). GFS 12z is just starting to run now. Again, not much but these are things to watch closer to home.

[wxman57]

You can see a broad/weak low-level circulation in the northern Gulf south of the convection. It should be moving into the Texas coast in about 48 hours (or less). The airmass across the Gulf is fairly dry, but there may be a 20-30% chance it could become a TD before it moves inland. This is no Alicia...

PS - recon is flying out there tomorrow (27N/96W).

[cycloneye]

Recon for Wednesday (If Necessary)

SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 71
A. 27/1600Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 27/1415Z
D. 27.0N 96.0W
E. 27/1530Z TO 27/1930Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[tropicwatch]

The GOM is definitely getting interesting with a pretty good increase in 850 vorticity this morning.

[Stormcenter]

Sat. loop of central GOM.


http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=GOM&itype=vis&size=large&endDate=20140826&endTime=-1&duration=12

[tolakram]

Live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=27&lon=-91&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=28

[northjaxpro]

Wxman57 is right on top of this situation with a very spot on analysis above with his post. I agree that there is a broad , weak circulation in that vicinity of the circle wxman57 drew up. It will take a bit of time for convection to get going there, but Recon has plans to be flying in that area near 27N and 96W tomorrow.

Should see 98L declared by NHC with this area very shortly.

[tropicwatch]

The plane in the gulf now has been dropping dropsonde's.

[gatorcane]

You can see a broad/weak low-level circulation in the northern Gulf south of the convection. It should be moving into the Texas coast in about 48 hours (or less). The airmass across the Gulf is fairly dry, but there may be a 20-30% chance it could become a TD before it moves inland. This is no Alicia...

PS - recon is flying out there tomorrow (27N/96W).

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/Gulf2.jpg

Not only dry but the upper-level winds are not conducive for development. We can see the thunderstorm tops getting sheared to the east.

[gatorcane]

NHC not bullish:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northern Gulf of
Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure moving slowly
west-southwestward. Upper-level winds are not expected to be
conducive for significant development before the system moves inland
in a couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[Stormcenter]

WSW?

NHC not bullish:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northern Gulf of
Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure moving slowly
west-southwestward. Upper-level winds are not expected to be
conducive for significant development before the system moves inland
in a couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[Alyono]

chances are quite a bit higher than 10%

[Tireman4]

chances are quite a bit higher than 10%

What would be the percentage you would place it at?

[davidiowx]

chances are quite a bit higher than 10%

I am curious as to why you think that? Just an honest question as it seems like it might run out of time.

[Alyono]

we're seeing increasing convection around the broad low this afternoon.

I was thinking anywhere from 20 to 40 percent

[somethingfunny]

How much time would you guess this low has over water?