possibility of GOM action later in week? (is INVEST 98L)

[Alyono]

36 hours

[MississippiWx]

we're seeing increasing convection around the broad low this afternoon.

I was thinking anywhere from 20 to 40 percent

The NHC is notorious for not giving these little spin-ups much of a chance to develop. I can think of two occasions in the recent past where a tropical storm developed, but they never declared it as such before it moved inland. One went into South-Central Louisiana and another one went into the Panhandle of Florida, IIRC.

[South Texas Storms]

It's not looking bad on radar and satellite imagery this afternoon. I would say development chances are around 30% before it moves inland around south Texas Thursday morning.

[HeeBGBz]

It looks like streaming bits of Cristobal are connecting with the weather south of Louisiana. Will that build more storm potential?

[Steve]

Look back to yesterday night's writeups, and that's the "2nd" Surge noted. Not sure if that will be a low or just a tropical surge toward the LA Coast or NW Gulf. NAM and GFS show the moisture in the precip 24hr and sim radar runs.

[Stormcenter]

It's noted below in this afternoon's NWS discussion out of New Orleans.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
316 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014. .


.SHORT TERM...

GULF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST
OVER THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. AS TENNESSEE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES
TO MOVE EASTWARD...DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BE DISPLACED...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. BEST CHANCES WILL BE SOUTH...HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN NUMERICAL GUIDANCE TO BLEND IN BETTER WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

BY FRIDAY...A DEVELOPING UPPER TROF ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS
EXTENDING INTO TEXAS WILL PICK UP A PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING FROM
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE WESTERN GULF AND CARRY IT
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA. THIS WILL BEGIN INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES ON FRIDAY.

Look back to yesterday night's writeups, and that's the "2nd" Surge noted. Not sure if that will be a low or just a tropical surge toward the LA Coast or NW Gulf. NAM and GFS show the moisture in the precip 24hr and sim radar runs.

[Senobia]

It's noted below in this afternoon's NWS discussion out of New Orleans.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
316 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014. .


.SHORT TERM...

GULF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST
OVER THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. AS TENNESSEE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES
TO MOVE EASTWARD...DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BE DISPLACED...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. BEST CHANCES WILL BE SOUTH...HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN NUMERICAL GUIDANCE TO BLEND IN BETTER WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES.


BY FRIDAY...A DEVELOPING UPPER TROF ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS
EXTENDING INTO TEXAS WILL PICK UP A PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING FROM
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE WESTERN GULF AND CARRY IT
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA. THIS WILL BEGIN INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES ON FRIDAY.

For clarification, because I struggle to understand this stuff, is the part in blue a separate area than the one hovering just off the TX/LA coast right now?

[Stormcenter]

Yes

It's noted below in this afternoon's NWS discussion out of New Orleans.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
316 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014. .


.SHORT TERM...

GULF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST
OVER THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. AS TENNESSEE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES
TO MOVE EASTWARD...DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BE DISPLACED...WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. BEST CHANCES WILL BE SOUTH...HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN NUMERICAL GUIDANCE TO BLEND IN BETTER WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES.


BY FRIDAY...A DEVELOPING UPPER TROF ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS
EXTENDING INTO TEXAS WILL PICK UP A PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING FROM
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE WESTERN GULF AND CARRY IT
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA. THIS WILL BEGIN INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES ON FRIDAY.

For clarification, because I struggle to understand this stuff, is the part in blue a separate area than the one hovering just off the TX/LA coast right now?

[davidiowx]

I think we can put a fork in this one. Convection is all but gone and dry air is taking it's toll.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, convection not able to get going today as mid level dry air is still present across the Western GOM. Plus, the weak circulation will be moving inland within the next 36 hours. I also don't think much will come of this except for bringing hopefuly some rain relief for South Texas.

I would be paying attention to what may happen next week as mentioned already on this thread, the models are picking up on vorticity moving in from the SW Caribbean and moving NW into the Western GOM within the next 10 days which may allow for a tropical cyclone to develop.

[cycloneye]

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northern Gulf of
Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure that is moving
slowly west-southwestward. Upper-level winds are not expected to be
conducive for significant development before the system moves inland
in a couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[northjaxpro]

NHC TWD 8:00 p.m. excerpt

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AND AMPLE DAYTIME INSTABILITY ARE GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 82W-
88W...AND FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 88W-92W. THE SURFACE TROUGHING IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. BY EARLY FRIDAY...ANY AREA OF LOWER
PRESSURE THAT MATERIALIZES WILL DRIFT INLAND ACROSS NE MEXICO
AND SOUTHERN TEXAS WITH S-SE FLOW RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF ACROSS
THE GULF FOR THE WEEKEND.

[tropicwatch]

The area that is interesting to me is around the western tip of Cuba. So far it has kept some convection, there is vorticity in the area and wind shear is low.

[Comanche]

The area that is interesting to me is around the western tip of Cuba. So far it has kept some convection, there is vorticity in the area and wind shear is low.

Totally agree, been watching that same area.

[gatorcane]

Northern GOM area has poofed... nothing to see here. Look how that shear just ripped off those cloud tops to the north not to mention way too much dry air. Saved loop:

[Steve]

I'm going to have to go ahead and disagree with you Gatorcane. Shear isn't that extreme at all. What I think we just saw was more of the time of day. I would bet storms start firing up again over water during the next few hours. At night on this side of the gulf this time of year, showers reform offshore. Low is connected sort of to that back door trough/front (not disagreeing about the drier air)

[Sanibel]

Weak naked spiral headed SW towards Texas coast. Looks TOO WEAK for now.

[Steve]

And I agree with that probably on the way to south Texas. I don't think it will amount to anything as per Friday/Saturday posts. What I'm thinking is as the other side of the trough backs up in response to the coming Midwest trough, whatever feeds in behind it would be the second tropical surge earlier models had coming into the NW Gulf. Remains to be seen of course, but it would be around Friday/Saturday so we don't have that long to wait to find out.

[gatorcane]

I'm going to have to go ahead and disagree with you Gatorcane.

Reminds me of what Lumberg would say to "the Bobs" from the movie "Office Space." Got a nice laugh of thanks!

As far as GOM development we may need to wait about 6-7 days when some energy originating from the SW Carib moves NW into the BOC, being discussed in the Global Models Thread.

Another thing about the current NW GOM area is that it is running out of real estate to get going even if we see a resurgence overnight during DMAX though upper-level winds are likely not going to cooperate.

[Steve]

Lol. Was indeed a Lumbergh reference - saving the best stuff for the best posters. I'll check nam and gfs in an hour to see if they are still backing the back door trough and sending in something behind it. But I am going to have to go ahead and agree about looking at realer stuff 6-7 days out. First there is some activity at the tail end of the trough connected to Cristobal in the western Caribbean and then the next wave about to hit the islands. Just a couple of things to watch migrate across that will be in the gulf at some point whatever they are.