possibility of GOM action later in week? (is INVEST 98L)

stormlover2013 · #61 Postby **stormlover2013** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 2:14 pm

looks like the gom could be hot the next couple of weeks

#62 Postby **Tireman4** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 2:15 pm

Even more interesting. I do wonder what Wxman 57 thinks....hummm...He has to be loving today. Hottest day of the year. Lucky him. Ugghhhh

#63 Postby **NDG** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 2:16 pm

Yeap, all the other models show the same thing of even a stronger system moving into the western gulf next week.

#64 Postby **northjaxpro** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 2:29 pm

Well, the GOM is primed and ready for a cyclone to tap into it. If anything gets in the GOM with the right enviromental conditions, it could get intereresting.

#65 Postby **drezee** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 2:34 pm

Right now it is nothing by outflow boundaries...
The only hope is the NW corner which might feedback over time if it doesn't also collapse

#66 Postby **somethingfunny** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 3:04 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPATL0.5_12z/ecmwfloop.html

euro has something cooking next tues by corpus

To clarify, that is 8 days from now and not the system we're currently watching (but we should keep an eye on that possible next system (97L?) as well)

#67 Postby **Roxy** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 5:32 pm

Sounds like Alicia or Allison…I'll be watching.

#68 Postby **tailgater** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 5:38 pm

This Not a tropical model but this system won't be tropical to start most likely.

#69 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 6:35 pm

Still no mention at 8 PM TWO.

#70 Postby **Steve** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 6:57 pm

Had the sound off, but Carl Arredondo showed some future cast/sim radar model through Friday. Motion of the waves of showers across the northwestern Gulf was cyclonic. It was superimposed over a tropical wave symbol. By Friday, there was some kind of closed isobar at the Central TX coast. It kinda got hung up and looked to be organizing (if not intensifying) at landfall as many storms hitting Texas do. It might have amounted to a closed low, but it really didn't look like much.

I would say that it didn't rain today but instead of upper 90s, it's mostly cloudy and breezy and has one of the tropical feels.

#71 Postby **srainhoutx** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 7:07 pm

Luis, the NHC 8:05 PM EDT Tropical Weather Discussion for the Gulf did make mention of the global models suggesting cyclogenesis in the Western Gulf mid week albeit weak and moving inland across NE Mexico/South Texas this.weekend.

#72 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 7:10 pm

srainhoutx wrote:Luis, the NHC 8:05 PM EDT Tropical Weather Discussion for the Gulf did make mention of the global models suggesting cyclogenesis in the Western Gulf mid week albeit weak and moving inland across NE Mexico/South Texas this.weekend.

Yes indeed.

THE WIND FIELD SURROUNDING THE SURFACE TROUGHING IS
FORECAST TO SHARPEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUESDAY
WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WATERS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. ANY LOW
PRESSURE AREA THAT DOES MATERIALIZE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK
AND CONTINUE DRIFTING WESTWARD INTO INLAND NE MEXICO AND
SOUTHERN TEXAS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

TexWx · #73 Postby **TexWx** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 7:18 pm

Grrr, and pulling all the rainfall down there with it.

PTrackerLA · #74 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 7:50 pm

While the heaviest storms went just east of the airport here I've recorded 2.5" of rain at my house this evening so definitely a lot of energy to work with. Hopefully our neighbors in Texas can pick up on some much needed rain with this system.

#75 Postby **Steve** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 7:50 pm

Might want to check out radar, and you are 36 hours from any cyclogenesis per mention in the discussion. There is liable to be plenty of instability, and as you probably know, weaker systems in the Western Gulf tend to have a lot of rain with an onshore flow north of any circulation. It would appear to be more than just a few coastal showers. Looking your way from the nws s ms valley radar, http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southmissvly.php

And it's only Monday.

TexWx · #76 Postby **TexWx** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 7:58 pm

Wow, I didn't see that northern area...

Senobia · #77 Postby **Senobia** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 8:13 pm

I don't think there is enough of this left over water to develop.

That said, we had some crazy winds blow through SETX this evening...I mean crazy winds. :double:

PTrackerLA · #78 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 10:15 pm

Looks to be some slight hints of a surface circulation (probably just mid-level) on infrared satellite and radar south of Grand Isle. It looks fairly weak but I can detect some turning with modest convection firing in that vicinity. Just might be something to keep an eye on overnight. I was talking to my dad earlier about tonight's storms and the hints of a gulf system in the models and we both recalled that huge MCS that rolled through in July 1997 which eventually became Hurricane Danny. Not saying I think anything like that will occur but that was pretty neat to witness. I remember Derecho used to post that home grown gulf storms from MCS's ala Alicia and Danny were very rare and I can't recall seeing one since the 90's. Not sure about how many form from troughs that stall in the GOM but those seem fairly rare as well.

#79 Postby **Steve** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 10:16 pm

We should probably give things another look tomorrow. Breck ran some model before Vipir that showed again a system moving in around Corpus late week. On it's heels is another low moving toward the LA Coast on Friday. That appears to be connected at some level to the southern side of Cristobal. More likely it is just some energy caught in the flow. 2nd Gulf surge also indicated by NAM 24hr precip run. It's not the model thread but a 3rd surge comes in at the end of the GFS toward the S TX coast. That model storm is the most substantial by far. So I guess the Gulf will be a place to watch things bubble up over the next few weeks. I'm not saying any of these 3 systems will go tropical, but I figured they were all worth a mention.

Ptarmigan · #80 Postby **Ptarmigan** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 10:17 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:Looks to be some slight hints of a surface circulation (probably just mid-level) on infrared satellite and radar south of Grand Isle. It looks fairly weak but I can detect some turning with modest convection firing in that vicinity. Just might be something to keep an eye on overnight. I was spoke with my dad earlier about tonight's storms and the hints of a gulf system in the models and we both recalled that huge MCS that rolled through in July 1997 which eventually became Hurricane Danny. Not saying I think anything like that will occur but that was pretty neat to witness. I remember Derecho used to post that home grown gulf storms from MCS's ala Alicia and Danny were very rare and I can't recall seeing one since the 90's. Not sure about how many form from troughs that stall in the GOM but those seem fairly rare as well.

I think home grown Gulf storms from MCS's are likely more common.

possibility of GOM action later in week? (is INVEST 98L)

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