The Gulf still bears watching

[davidiowx]

I don't think it will have enough time

[TexWx]

I think you are correct.
Interesting though.

[BigA]

925 mb vorticity PSU ewall map also shows an increase in vorticity


http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SATANL_ATLVOR/recent.html (I'm having trouble posting images)

Definitely a substantial increase in low-level vorticity. Also, it's in a pocket of relatively light shear. That said, the fact that there isn't even a mention of it per the TWO indicates to me that it is likely not to do much. That said, I've seen a few systems spin up rapidly in the northwest GOM, and it's still a good 200 miles or so from land.

[SouthDadeFish]

Surface obs indicating a surface circulation may be forming very near the area of increasing low-level vorticity. This is starting to get very interesting.

[tropicwatch]

One problem I can't tell where that is in the GOM. Never mind was able to pick out Louisiana.

[HeeBGBz]

We've had steady winds of 35-40 mph for a while when the rain started. Very, very tropical.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS yesterday at 30 hours had a robust 850 vort in the NW Gulf S of Matagorda Bay and Galveston. That appears to have verified rather well.

[davidiowx]

The trough coming down would take this east of us right (drier side)? Or is the trough not expected to reach our area?

[SouthDadeFish]

Today's 12Z GFS and NAM did attempt to develop a weak 850 mb vort max and moved it up near the TX/LA border in the overnight hours tonight.

[gatorcane]

Quite a lot of convection and the shear isn't as bad as it was a few days ago, but the problem is that it will just run out of time more than likely and not get a chance to develop.

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[baytownwx]

Me thinks they took 98L's floater down a little too soon and turned a wrong eye to the carribean

[Hammy]

Surface obs indicating a surface circulation may be forming very near the area of increasing low-level vorticity. This is starting to get very interesting.

I'm thinking the same, and it looks pretty close to where the wrinkle was at last night on the ASCAT pass.

[SouthDadeFish]

Buoy KHQI is reporting WSW winds at 22 knots as of 19:55Z. It has only been one report though. I don't see surface pressures falling dramatically anywhere either.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=khqi

[Sanibel]

That thing was on its way. Look at the WV loop. Will the front kick it back in to the Gulf?

[BigA]

Station 42056 is also showing a west wind. Could just be thunderstorm outflow-induced, but with the increasing vorticity nearby, it certainly is interesting.

[Hammy]

If you watch the low clouds on high-res NASA loop, about east of Brownsville you can see the clouds streaming from the south then suddenly shift direction to westerly, and at the same time see a bit of turning east of Corpus. I've seen things spin up suddenly with zero model support, this could possibly be one of those situations if it sits there for another day.

[baytownwx]

If you watch the low clouds on high-res NASA loop, about east of Brownsville you can see the clouds streaming from the south then suddenly shift direction to westerly, and at the same time see a bit of turning east of Corpus.

Agree with your assessment, and that turning east of Corpus just so happens to be where the max 850 mb vorticity is located

[jeff]

Buoy KHQI is reporting WSW winds at 22 knots as of 19:55Z. It has only been one report though. I don't see surface pressures falling dramatically anywhere either.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=khqi

I think we are seeing a meso vort from all the convection...and there are likely a couple more given all the storm clusters. Similar vort between KBRO and KCRP this morning which has spun down today after its convection waned this morning is clearly evident on BRO and CRP radar

[Sanibel]

I think the true center is overland by that little red IR blow-up by Brownsville.

[wxman57]

Surface obs indicating a surface circulation may be forming very near the area of increasing low-level vorticity. This is starting to get very interesting.

http://i.imgur.com/46lbDSw.gif

I think that there are a few bad obs out there. A number of those wind obs on the rigs may be highly suspect. Some of the rigs may move around occasionally and the anemometers may not be calibrated well to the proper direction. I don't see any sigh of dropping pressures offshore at all, and no evidence of a surface trof. The squalls are moving inland tonight and tomorrow morning, so development is unlikely.