Area of Disturbed Weather in NW Caribbean

[floridasun78]

Convection increasing big time as the GFS model projected...

so gfs could be right if keep increasing

[tropicwatch]

Sure looks like it is heading for the NW Caribbean.

[Hurricaneman]

This one has my attention for development, it is in an area in the Caribbean where the shear is lower and there is a Kelvin Wave there right now so this is the area to watch as we go into the weekend and into next week

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[Sanibel]

Agreed. Bears watching.

[northjaxpro]

The system is drifting N/NW right now and the convection indeed looks impressive. Will have to monitor this system closely this weekend. If shear relaxes, this could develop. Also, don't forget the SSTs and how ridiculously warm they are in the NW Caribbean.

[bahamaswx]

Looking really good. GFS nailed this.

[N2FSU]

The animated loop shows this really getting it's act together overnight.

[KatDaddy]

Nice blow-up of convection overnight. I would not be surprised if it was added to the Tropical Weather Outlook later this morning or this afternoon if it continues to maintain. Looks like NW to NNW drift.

[Dean4Storms]

Wow, this has a circulation ongoing, don't know if it is at the surface yet. But sure looks suspicious!

[Dean4Storms]

Seems to be moving WNW to NW.

[Kohlecane]

Anybody have a good link for an IR loop in this Region?

[tropicwatch]

Pressures seem to be low in the area. A couple of ships have reported pressures from 1008mb to 1010mb.

[tropicwatch]

Most recent loophttp://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=14.5&lon=-84&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir2.pal&info=ir&numframes=20

[Sanibel]

Whatever is there as a surface rotation seems to be clipping Honduras.

[TheProfessor]

Is this expected to move into the Gulf? If so, could this be the Hurricane that the GFS has been trying to hit somewhere between northern Mexico and the Texas coast late next week?

[latitude_20]

Pretty solid alignment of lower convergence and upper divergence.

[rolltide]

Question for Pro Mets. Why do you think the NHC has not declared this area an invest? What do you think they are seeing or not seeing?

Thanks

[srainhoutx]

The main hindrance right now is lack of a low level circulation probably due to land interaction. There is some spin in the 700/500mb levels, but shear to the N of this area of disturbed weather has kept it in check. Condition may become a bit more favorable for potential development in a couple of days as it interacts with an Easterly Wave progressing W across the Central Caribbean and gets a bit closer to the Yucatan Peninsula. Another wave axis is currently crossing the Bay of Campeche to its NW as well.

[Kludge]

JB tweeting on this...
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi · 2h
W Carib area likelynext PACIFIC storm after moving thru Cent America.

[Alyono]

Bastardi should know that this area is likely to persist for several days in the southwest Caribbean