Here is the 12Z Simulated IR image, 66 hours from now, saved image:
Current IR Satellite, saved image:
Area of Disturbed Weather in NW Caribbean
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gatorcane
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Area of Disturbed Weather in NW Caribbean
The GFS model continues to show a sharp increase in convection over the SW Caribbean spreading north through the weekend. Looking down there today, we can see some deep convection starting. Could we see some possible development?
Here is the 12Z Simulated IR image, 66 hours from now, saved image:
Current IR Satellite, saved image:
Here is the 12Z Simulated IR image, 66 hours from now, saved image:
Current IR Satellite, saved image:
Last edited by gatorcane on Sun Sep 07, 2014 9:24 am, edited 5 times in total.
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northjaxpro
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It's possible. There has been model support showing something developing and moving northwest and then into the BOC area in the next few days. Will watch the region closely.
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather in SW Caribbean
Our private weather service here also notes to keep a careful watch on this region. They put development late next week. They also mention possible development from the front currently swinging down.
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TW in Texas Hill Country 
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TheStormExpert
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No way any sort of TC will form with this kind of screaming shear. Try Eastern GoM, or off the SE Coast.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.
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YoshiMike
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why havent i noticed this?
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Okay guys, just because I want to BE a meteorologist, want to go to school for meteorology, DOES NOT MAKE ME A METEOROLOGIST. Anything I say about tropical weather is either me learning something new, or is just an opinion and nothing more than that. I can almost guarantee you that I will be wrong about pretty much everything.
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Hurricaneman
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The GFS has this area from the 18z run going into Texas and the 0zrun heading into Tampico so its still way too far out to see where this one goes or if it even develops
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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Re:
TheStormExpert wrote:No way any sort of TC will form with this kind of screaming shear. Try Eastern GoM, or off the SE Coast.
The models aren't showing anything immediate, more like 3-5 days, which means that in all likelihood the pattern will change by then.
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tropicwatch
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather in SW Caribbean
Looks like we will need to rename this thread NW Caribbean because it does look like this area will make it there.
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Tropicwatch
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tropicwatch
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather in SW Caribbean
There is some heavy duty wind shear in that area right now.
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Tropicwatch
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Models show that ULL move NW while UL heights rise across the central and western Caribbean this weekend. A lot of that shear on the map above is more of high shear relatively speaking because of the strong low level jet across the central Caribbean Sea. So don't look for anything to get organize at the surface across the central Caribbean because of the strong low level jet, it will have to be way west in the extreme SW Caribbean into the BOC, IMO.
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tropicwatch
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"SW Caribbean into the BOC"
Did you mean NW?
Did you mean NW?
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Tropicwatch
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somethingfunny
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather in SW Caribbean
The Canadian is migrating this over to the EPAC
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I am not a meteorologist, and any posts made by me are not official forecasts or to be interpreted as being intelligent. These posts are just my opinions and are probably silly opinions.
Re:
gatorcane wrote:Convection increasing big time as the GFS model projected...
Looks to be going more northerly than west... overall looks NNW to NW to me... this may not make it to the EPAC....
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