Convection east of Lesser Antilles

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like it has a chance if shear can lessen

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[TropicalAnalystwx13]

This convection is associated with a tropical wave. Upper-level winds will not be favorable as this moves through the Caribbean, but if it can get into the Bay of Campeche (and that's a big if, it may stay inland and dissipate instead), a backing upper-level low should give way to upper-level ridging which would favor development.

[Hurricaneman]

This is currently north of Puerto Rico and from what I can see the GFS has a sharp wave that seems to stall east of the Bahamas and doesn't develop but heres the twist and its that I believe that the Euro does start developing it off the florida coast at day 5 which if you follow the vorticity of this back to currently north of Puerto Rico is that the Euro home brew comes from this wave but what we have to wach for is if the GFS, CMC, FIM, NAVGEM and UKMET come aboard and if the Euro keeps this because if any of these things happen it may earn a lemon in the next day or 2

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Yellow Evan]

It'll form in either the BOC or EPAc.