Possible weak development east of FL this week? (Is 92L)

#1 Postby **NDG** » Mon Sep 08, 2014 9:06 am

The ECMWF has been showing that the ULL near the SE Bahamas will slowly die out as it slowly moves westward and in its place an H85 vorticity could come out of it near the northern Bahamas, it shows it to meander around just east of SE & east Cent FL through the early weekend. Unlike the similar event that happened with a system this past week the vorticity will stay offshore so it may have higher chances for development if UL winds cooperate. Currently it only has support from the CMC/GEM which is very bullish, but this is an area that the Euro has done really well.

tropicwatch · #2 Postby **tropicwatch** » Mon Sep 08, 2014 9:08 am

Stay tuned for the next episode of, is it a homegrown:)

#3 Postby **NDG** » Mon Sep 08, 2014 9:18 am

0z CMC/GEM shows a closed low developing as soon as late tomorrow night and make landfall near Fort Pierce on Thursday. I personally think it is being too progressive & aggressive, if anything forms it will be slow to do so.

CYCLONE MIKE · #4 Postby **CYCLONE MIKE** » Mon Sep 08, 2014 9:22 am

Sure, just like we were supposed to have 2 storms in the gulf this past weekend and this week. :lol:

tropicwatch · #5 Postby **tropicwatch** » Mon Sep 08, 2014 9:30 am

I've seen quick developers before but I don't see it happening this year. 8-)

#6 Postby **NDG** » Mon Sep 08, 2014 9:32 am

I am watching the area ESE from the ULL where I marked the X, there is a nice vorticity noticed on visible satellite this morning and some LL convergence going on there as well.

#7 Postby **northjaxpro** » Mon Sep 08, 2014 9:34 am

Don't underestimate these models. There has been a lot of activity in the Bahamas and off the East Coast of Florida this season. Also, you don't have to have a full fledge developed tropical cyclone to cause you problems. The elongated Low pressure/surface trough which has plagued my area since Friday, is causing flooding in parts of North Florida and South GA at this time. As of now, I have measured just under 6 inches at my locale since Friday.

So, I am paying attention to what the models think may happen off the Florida East Coast again this week. It definitely needs to have a watchful eye imo.

#8 Postby **NDG** » Mon Sep 08, 2014 9:37 am

northjaxpro wrote:Don't underestimate these models. There has been a lot of activity in the Bahamas and off the East Coast of Florida this season. Also, you don't have to have a full fledge developed tropical cyclone to cause you problems. The elongated Low pressure/surface trough which has plagued my area since Friday, is causing flooding in parts of North Florida and South GA at this time. As of now, I have measured just under 6 inches at my locale since Friday.

So, I am paying attention to what the models think may happen off the Florida East Coast again this week. It definitely needs to have a watchful eye imo.

I totally agree, had the area of low pressure in your area would had stayed offshore we probably would had been dealing with a TS offshore the Carolinas this morning, IMO.

#9 Postby **northjaxpro** » Mon Sep 08, 2014 9:42 am

Another thing also NDG is that the steering flow was very weak with this recent Low this past weekend, and that caused this Low/trough to move through very slowly. This was why we had so much rain in my area and other parts of the North FL and Southeast GA region this weekend.

Hurricaneman · #10 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Mon Sep 08, 2014 9:47 am

Watch this one especially from Florida to the Carolinas as a possible surprise and don't be surprised if a quick forming system happens as the ULL weakens or dies. Will be an interesting week for the southeast

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#11 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 08, 2014 10:00 am

NAM develops but meanders well east of Florida and the Bahamas:

caneman · #12 Postby **caneman** » Mon Sep 08, 2014 10:30 am

It's been so long since we've had a threat in Florida. IT seems everyone has let their guard down, including me. I honestly don't remember when I last bought a Hurricane supply kit. I know that is a no no but human nature I guess.

TheStormExpert · #13 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Mon Sep 08, 2014 12:47 pm

So the CMC and NAM are the only models developing this? Odds are development chances are extremely low.

StarmanHDB · #14 Postby **StarmanHDB** » Mon Sep 08, 2014 1:28 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:So the CMC and NAM are the only models developing this? Odds are development chances are extremely low.

I'm not here to doubt "The Storm Expert" and his "expertise", but (as previously mentioned) yesterday's 12Z Euro shows something "homebrew" off of our coast. Just thought I'd mention that.

Have a GREAT DAY!

#15 Postby **NDG** » Mon Sep 08, 2014 1:43 pm

StarmanHDB wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:So the CMC and NAM are the only models developing this? Odds are development chances are extremely low.

I'm not here to doubt "The Storm Expert" and his "expertise", but (as previously mentioned) yesterday's 12Z Euro shows something "homebrew" off of our coast. Just thought I'd mention that.

Have a GREAT DAY!

Today's 12z also shows development but slower than CMC and NAM.

#16 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 08, 2014 2:41 pm

nothing really at all on the 12Z ECMWF for this feature any longer....

#17 Postby **NDG** » Mon Sep 08, 2014 3:08 pm

You are correct, I was watching the Euro as it was coming in through instantwxmaps which shows a closed H85 vorticity developing off the Carolinas coast but by early next, the system we are talking about it shows it tracking across S FL into the GOM but never developing.

ronjon · #18 Postby **ronjon** » Mon Sep 08, 2014 3:22 pm

12z ECM shows a mid-level weakness moving south off the mid-atlantic to the Bahamas. Was discussed in the morning AFD for NWS Tampa Bay.

DURING FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND MODELS DEPICT ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND NORTHERN
GULF REGION ASSOCIATED WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN ADDITION THE ECMWF AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS SHOWS SOME MID LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC EARLIER IN THE WEEK
BREAKING OFF AND SINKING SOUTH AND CLOSING OFF INTO A MID LEVEL LOW
OFFSHORE THE FLORIDA EAST COAST LATE ON FRIDAY...WITH THE ECMWF THEN
MOVING THIS FEATURE WEST ACROSS THE PENINSULA ON SATURDAY. AT THE
MOMENT AM NOT TOO CONFIDENT IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION DEALING WITH THIS
FEATURE...SO WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE GFS FOR NOW WHICH SHOWS SOME
WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND...

#19 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 08, 2014 4:06 pm

18Z NAM a little weaker and drifts the low more west than previous runs, run ends at 84 hours below:

#20 Postby **northjaxpro** » Mon Sep 08, 2014 4:17 pm

I will be very curious to see later the next set of EURO runs late tonight, and the GFS later. This area in the Bahamas and off The Florida East Coast has been the most conducive area for systems to develop this season, which we have touched on in this thread and elsewhere. I am watching very clkosely this week.

Possible weak development east of FL this week? (Is 92L)

Possible weak development east of FL this week? (Is 92L)

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