2014 Cyclones Retirement

[Hurricanehink]

So from Gustav => Gonzalo => ?
Any names that CAN'T be used?

Can't use any of the Atlantic retirees, such as Gilbert, Georges, or Gustav, or the existing G male names in either basin, which are Gaston, Gordon, Greg, Gil, or Guillermo.

[HurricaneBill]

Retired Atlantic names that were "one-hit wonders":

Connie (1955)
Diane (1955)
Ione (1955)
Janet (1955)
Audrey (1957)
Gracie (1959)
Donna (1960)
Hattie (1961)
Inez (1966)
Camille (1969)
Agnes (1972)
Carmen (1974)
Eloise (1975)
Anita (1977)
David (1979)
Frederic (1979)
Allen (1980)
Alicia (1983)
Gilbert (1988)
Joan (1988)
Hugo (1989)
Luis (1995)
Marilyn (1995)
Opal (1995)
Roxanne (1995)
Mitch (1998)
Lenny (1999)
Michelle (2001)
Rita (2005)
Stan (2005)
Wilma (2005)
Ike (2008)
Paloma (2008)
Igor (2010)
Tomas (2010)
Sandy (2012)

[CrazyC83]

Male G names NOT available (other than Gonzalo): Gaston, Georges, Gil, Gilbert, Gordon, Greg, Guillermo, Gustav

[CrazyC83]

Overall it looks like:

Likely to be retired - Gonzalo, Odile

Possible retirement candidate - Iselle

Possible *replacement* candidate - Isis

[Hammy]

Possible *replacement* candidate - Isis

Just pointing out this is already on the 2016 list.

[CrazyC83]

As discussed earlier, Isis is a name that might be worth replacing and removing from the 2016 list. That is why it is listed as a *replacement* candidate. But that means TWO female I names may be needed...

[HurricaneRyan]

Garrett, Grayson, Griffin, Gerald, Gerard are all names that can be used.

[CrazyC83]

Most likely any replacement for Gonzalo will also be a Hispanic name, since it replaced a Hispanic name in itself.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Most likely any replacement for Gonzalo will also be a Hispanic name, since it replaced a Hispanic name in itself.

Gustav was actually French.

Other than that, perhaps these below are the available names.

TOP CANDIDATE: GASPAR
Gareth
Garrick
Gary
Gavin
Gerald
Gerardo
Gerard
Geronimo
Godfrey
Godofredo

[galaxy401]

I'm hesitant to retire Gonzalo since it didn't cause that much damage to Bermuda. The damage in the Caribbean might be enough but the storm only caused one death so far.

[Cleveland Kent Evans]

Most likely any replacement for Gonzalo will also be a Hispanic name, since it replaced a Hispanic name in itself.

Gustav was actually French.

Actually Gustav is the Scandinavian and German form of that name. French would be Gustave and Spanish is Gustavo.

The replacement names are chosen from a list of three which is prepared by whatever weather bureau asks for the previous name to be retired. The reason Gustav was replaced with the Spanish name Gonzalo was that the first country to ask for Gustav's retirement was Cuba.

There is no requirement that a name be replaced with one from the same cultural or language group. I think some people have that idea because when the Canadians ask for Juan to be retired the replacements they suggested were all traditional Spanish names. But that was an example of Canadian over-politeness. Other countries have not thought they had to follow that pattern.

When Bermuda asked for Fabian's retirement its three replacements were a list the weather service there had asked the general public to vote on. That's the only place I know of which has ever asked for public input on the issue. I would guess it's likely they'll do that again if they ask for Gonzalo's retirement. In that case I bet the most likely candidate is George -- since the Bermudans had Fred as their first choice even though Frederic had been previously retired, I don't see why they'd have qualms about suggesting George even though the French form Georges was previously used and retired.

Graham, Geoffrey, Gary, Gavin, Gareth, Gregory, Glenn, Gerald, Gerard, and Guy are other male "G" names which have been well-used in England over the last 60 years and so are presumably names Bermudans would be familiar with.

[somethingfunny]

Cast my vote for Hurricane Guy

[HurricaneRyan]

Fabian only needed $300 million to get retired by Bermuda. Gonzalo's damage estimates right now are at least $200 million

[HurricaneRyan]

Gonzalo still stands as the possible lone retirement of this season.

Iselle and Odile would be the nominees for the EPAC

[xtyphooncyclonex]

RAMMASUN

If 22W turns out deadly over PHL, then HAGUPIT

[somethingfunny]

RAMMASUN

If 22W turns out deadly over PHL, then HAGUPIT

Any other WPAC candidates thus far? It's thankfully been fairly quiet so far in terms of impacts aside from Rammasun... Japan might request one of the Neoguri/Halong/Phanfone/Vongfong group if any of those met their criteria. Matmo wasn't particularly bad except for the tragic airplane crash in Taiwan.

Gonzalo, Iselle and Odile have been pretty much discussed to death but let's consider another one: Arthur. Not for its' minimal North Carolina landfall, but for its' impact on Canada, which by many accounts was among the worst in western Nova Scotia's history.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

RAMMASUN

If 22W turns out deadly over PHL, then HAGUPIT

Any other WPAC candidates thus far? It's thankfully been fairly quiet so far in terms of impacts aside from Rammasun... Japan might request one of the Neoguri/Halong/Phanfone/Vongfong group if any of those met their criteria. Matmo wasn't particularly bad except for the tragic airplane crash in Taiwan.

Gonzalo, Iselle and Odile have been pretty much discussed to death but let's consider another one: Arthur. Not for its' minimal North Carolina landfall, but for its' impact on Canada, which by many accounts was among the worst in western Nova Scotia's history.

Nah so far.

[dexterlabio]

There were a handful of intense super typhoons this year in the Western Pacific but most of them went out to sea safely and others weakened significantly before impacting anyone. Yeah the best candidate for retirement is Rammasun.

[CrazyC83]

My guess for the probabilities for each storm being retired.

ATLANTIC

Hurricane Arthur - 15%

Hurricane Bertha - 5%

Hurricane Cristobal - 2%

Tropical Storm Dolly - 2%

Major Hurricane Edouard - <2%

Hurricane Fay - 10%

Major Hurricane Gonzalo - 55%

Tropical Storm Hanna - 2%

EASTERN/CENTRAL PACIFIC

Storms not mentioned: <5%

Major Hurricane Iselle - 25%

Major Hurricane Norbert - 10%

Major Hurricane Odile - 80%

Tropical Storm Trudy - 10%

[xtyphooncyclonex]

PAGASA RETIRES FIVE NAMES
Old name Replacement
Glenda Gardo
Jose Josie
Mario Maymay
Ruby Rosita
Seniang Samuel