Low pressure offshore the Carolinas

[sandyb]

can someone chime in on what the models are showing off the NC coast for this weekend? or Early next week?

[crownweather]

Looks like we're going to have low pressure developing about 150 miles to the east of the coast of eastern Florida at the very tail end of a frontal boundary from Friday into Saturday.

This low pressure system is forecast to track almost due northward this weekend and track very close to, if not right over the outer banks of North Carolina late Sunday. From there, on Sunday night into Monday, this low pressure system is forecast to track northeastward and track very near Cape Cod and into the Gulf of Maine and Canadian Maritimes.

Even though I do think that this low pressure system will need to be watched for signs that it tries to transform into a tropical cyclone, I don't think it will happen as it will be moving fairly quickly from a somewhat favorable environment into a unfavorable environment. Now, it will be tracking very near the very warm Gulf Stream waters within an environment that may be somewhat favorable from Saturday afternoon to Sunday afternoon while it’s tracking from just offshore of the coast of South Carolina to the outer banks of North Carolina and this may be the time frame to watch for development, but like I said the odds right now seem very low.

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure could form off of the east coast of
Florida over the weekend. This system will have some potential to
acquire tropical or subtropical characteristics while it moves
northeastward near or offshore of the southeastern coast of the
United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO

A broad area of low pressure could form off of the east coast of
Florida over the weekend. This system will have some potential to
acquire tropical or subtropical characteristics while it moves
northeastward near or offshore of the southeastern coast of the
United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[northjaxpro]

It appears that energy moving in from the Gulf of Mexico will begin to traverse across the Florida peninsula tomorrow and into Saturday and into the Atlantic off the SE U.S. coast. Thereafter, cyclogenesis, tropical or subtropical in nature, may begin to commence within the next 48-72 hours, which GFS and EURO are now showing. Both models are showing the potential Low to be offshore the NC Outer Banks by late Sunday.

[northjaxpro]

To follow up on my post just above from last night, there is plenty of convection this morning across the Gulf of Mexico. This will guarantee some pretty wet wether across the Florida peninsula the next couple of days as it moves eastward. A pretty decent chance that this energy could spawn cyclogenesis by late Saturday off the Florida East Coast and head northeastward.

Well, at least it is something to monitor in the short term.

[HurricaneBelle]

NHC says move along, nothing to see here, with its 8AM TWO:

An area of low pressure is expected to form off of the southeastern
coast of the United States over the weekend. The system is now
expected to remain non-tropical (frontal) while it accelerates
northeastward a short distance off of the U.S. east coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, it will likely be a frontal Low. It will form from the base of the upper trough which will move through the Florida peninsula the next 48 hours out of the GOM.

I am ready for winter already.

[NDG]

El Niño-sh type of weather pattern already setting up along the deep south, one day sun, the next day an impulse riding along the subtropical yet with rain coming out of no where.

[psyclone]

El Niño-sh type of weather pattern already setting up along the deep south, one day sun, the next day an impulse riding along the subtropical yet with rain coming out of no where.

that's exactly right. it seems as if we're in the process of transitioning to cold season westerlies with an el nino flavor. plenty of us blast el nino for the detrimental impact it has on atlantic tropical activity but el nino provides lots of cold season weather entertainment during what is frequently otherwise a sterile time of the year. Bring it. Plus this rainy season was a dud so any extra dry season rainfall is welcome.

[Sanibel]

It took a while but that front finally rooted.


We're also behind on rain over here. No wetland pools like usual.

[Frank2]

I've noticed that too - definitely an El Nino pattern here in Florida, and in the past has meant a rainy winter season and an active early Spring tornado season (we had a disasterous F3 tornado in the Orlando area during the El Nino of February, 1998). Considering how hyper the EPAC has been I'm surprised forecasters haven't "officially" declared an El Nino event...

[floridasun78]

nhc drop area off florida

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Yay first nor'easter, second actually first one hit Newfoundland last weekend, of the season. I'm thinking we'll have an active Fall & Winter East Coast storm track again this year.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[northjaxpro]

Even though it will be frontal in nature, there appears to be a broad surface Low developing just off shore of Cape Canaveral.

This system will continue to enhance moisture and convergence with the onshore surface flow across Jax area, especially along the coast There will be periods of heavy rain showers moving onshore tonight into tomorrow.
Also, with a strong 1031 mb High positioned off the New England coast late tonight and a developing frontal Low just off the Florida East Coast, we have a nice nor'easter set up for this weekend here. Actually, the NAM run from earlier today actually intensified the Low during the next 36 hours. If the NAM is right, we will see at least small craft advisores for the near shore waters with a decent pressure gradient from the northeast.

This type of set up is definitely a signal of El Nino and that the Fall season is upon us.

[northjaxpro]

Interesting JAX radar presentation this morning as rotation around a mid-upper Low is apparant just offshore the NE Florida and SE Georgia coast drifting northward. Also, as the upper trough axis continues to pivot through and sharpen across the region, this should spawn Low pressure development at the surface later today somewhere off the NE Florida coast as it will head northeast.

Getting heavy convergent rain bands moving onshore here. Have already picked up over an inch already. Northeast winds will also pick up today as well as the pressure gradient tightens a bit between the strong High off the New England coast and the developing Frontal Low off the SE U.S. coast.

[NDG]

Even after this low pressure exits this weekend towards the NE it looks like most of FL will go back to a wet pattern next week and possibly into the following week. What a way to end our rainy season with this El Nino like pattern.

[WPBWeather]

Even after this low pressure exits this weekend towards the NE it looks like most of FL will go back to a wet pattern next week and possibly into the following week. What a way to end our rainy season with this El Nino like pattern.

BUT, there is still no el nino yet. Will there be even a weak one at some point?

[NDG]

Even after this low pressure exits this weekend towards the NE it looks like most of FL will go back to a wet pattern next week and possibly into the following week. What a way to end our rainy season with this El Nino like pattern.

BUT, there is still no el nino yet. Will there be even a weak one at some point?

Officially we may not have an El Nino yet but the atmosphere is already acting like we have a weak El Nino, no question about it, just ask the TWs that tried to cross the Caribbean during this Hurricane season, they got shredded to pieces, lol.
CPC has their rule for officially announcing the arrival of an El Nino but is not mother nature's rule by any means.
BTW, models are still indicating that we will have a weak El Nino this winter.

[jlauderdal]

El Niño-sh type of weather pattern already setting up along the deep south, one day sun, the next day an impulse riding along the subtropical yet with rain coming out of no where.

we had tstorms midday which would usually stabilize things for the rest of the day but not in this pattern, came back late afternoon and even into the evening...starting all over again today on the sw coast and heading east on the flow...