Area of Disturbed Weather Near Panama

[Hurricaneman]

The GFS has been on this for about a week and it seems as though that the other models including the Euro are coming aboard so lets see what happens as the Euro ensembles are very much a threat to Cuba, Florida and possibly up the eastern seaboard and there is currently some disturbed weather north and south of Panama and I could believe that initialization of development may come from a festering of this disturbed weather and the tropical wave in the lesser antilles so it may be something to keep an eye on while we watch the players on the field

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/avn-l.jpg

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[floridasun78]

we need see if dont move west into central America

[wxman57]

Just a very weak wave that's already moved into the East Pacific.

[floridasun78]

Just a very weak wave that's already moved into the East Pacific.

how cold be East Pacific if it east leedward you got wrong wave one talking about

[wxman57]

Just a very weak wave that's already moved into the East Pacific.

how cold be East Pacific if it east leedward you got wrong wave one talking about

The thread title says "area of disturbed weather near Panama", not "near Leeward Islands". Regardless, neither will be developing.

[floridasun78]

Just a very weak wave that's already moved into the East Pacific.

how cold be East Pacific if it east leedward you got wrong wave one talking about

The thread title says "area of disturbed weather near Panama", not "near Leeward Islands". Regardless, neither will be developing.

here what he say development may come from a festering of this disturbed weather and the tropical wave in the lesser antilles so it may be something to keep an eye on while we watch the players on the field

[Hurricaneman]

here what he say development may come from a festering of this disturbed weather and the tropical wave in the lesser antilles so it may be something to keep an eye on while we watch the players on the field

yes and its still there festering and all the models except the Euro and even that model is lowering pressures are saying that the wave in the Eastern Caribbean and this area combine and become something so while theres too much shear for it to do something now but the tropical wave to is expected according to the models to inject a lot of moisture into the festering area near Panama and become a low so it really is something to watch especially for Cuba and Florida and possibly up the East Coast in the long run

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[floridasun78]

here what he say development may come from a festering of this disturbed weather and the tropical wave in the lesser antilles so it may be something to keep an eye on while we watch the players on the field

yes and its still there festering and all the models except the Euro and even that model is lowering pressures are saying that the wave in the Eastern Caribbean and this area combine and become something so while theres too much shear for it to do something now but the tropical wave to is expected according to the models to inject a lot of moisture into the festering area near Panama and become a low so it really is something to watch especially for Cuba and Florida and possibly up the East Coast in the long run

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

i wrote that to wxman he didnt understand your post what i see

[wyq614]

here what he say development may come from a festering of this disturbed weather and the tropical wave in the lesser antilles so it may be something to keep an eye on while we watch the players on the field

yes and its still there festering and all the models except the Euro and even that model is lowering pressures are saying that the wave in the Eastern Caribbean and this area combine and become something so while theres too much shear for it to do something now but the tropical wave to is expected according to the models to inject a lot of moisture into the festering area near Panama and become a low so it really is something to watch especially for Cuba and Florida and possibly up the East Coast in the long run

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I'll be watching it and I believe something will come up in SW Carib this month.

[Hurricaneman]

This area is still percolating but has little model support except from the GFS which means I'll keep an eye on it but expect little to no development from this system

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[gatorcane]

06Z GFS simulated IR shows this area of convection expanding across the SW Caribbean in as little as 72 hours from now. I believe there is a tropical wave in the vicinity that could enhance the convection in the next few days. We shall see:

[Hurricaneman]

Looks as though something is starting at about 12N 78W but my eyes could be playing tricks

[wxman57]

Looks as though something is starting at about 12N 78W but my eyes could be playing tricks

I see a weak tropical wave moving rapidly westward around 78W, but no evidence of rotation. According to the 06Z GFS, a TD will form within 72 hours in the SW Caribbean. We'll see about that. I don't see any feature to focus on yet.

[NDG]

Shear above the 10th latitude in the southern Caribbean is decapitating anything that would try to form, and if you believe the GFS's forecast of lowering shear in the Caribbean past its 72 hr forecast you are nuts
The Euro's version of development in the EPAC side of C.A. sounds more logical to me, IMO.

[gatorcane]

12Z GEM now in line with the GFS in showing development of this area and for it to lift northward into the NW Caribbean and SE GOM:

NHC should mention the SW Caribbean in the next TWO in my opinion.

[gatorcane]

Here is how the 12Z GEM run ends with a intensifying hurricane moving slowly northward in the SE GOM:

[Sanibel]

Visible loop shows zero down there except for some weak convection mostly based off the Pacific. There's nothing indicating any potential formation and the Caribbean is typically hostile like it's been all summer.

[ronjon]

Visible loop shows zero down there except for some weak convection mostly based off the Pacific. There's nothing indicating any potential formation and the Caribbean is typically hostile like it's been all summer.

Not sure what you're looking at Sanibel, but there are only two clusters of heavy convection in the western atlantic basin - one in the GOM and one in the SW caribbean on either side of Panama.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-avn.html

[StarmanHDB]

Visible loop shows zero down there except for some weak convection mostly based off the Pacific. There's nothing indicating any potential formation and the Caribbean is typically hostile like it's been all summer.

Not sure what you're looking at Sanibel, but there are only two clusters of heavy convection in the western atlantic basin - one in the GOM and one in the SW caribbean on either side of Panama.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-avn.html

I have to agree with Sanibel. Not much going on down there (yet?) other than cloudiness and some unsustained convection. Despite these facts, I am sticking to my guns about a TC forming down there sometime very soon. We shall see.

[gatorcane]

Convection on the increase. Development chances are certainly not 0%. Not really sure why the NHC is reluctant to mention this area given some increased model support. I thought with the GEM joining the GFS, it would be mentioned at least. Even the NAM, though not a good tropical model, has swung towards the GFS over the past several runs.