Disturbance in SE Andaman Sea (Is Invest 99B)

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Alyono
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Disturbance in SE Andaman Sea (Is Invest 99B)

#1 Postby Alyono » Sat Oct 04, 2014 1:29 pm

Models are coming into agreement that we will see this develop and become an intense cyclone heading toward the northern Bay of Bengal in about 8 to 10 days

Models indicating that the threat for now is centered on India, but I don't think Bangladesh can be ruled out this far in advance
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#2 Postby galaxy401 » Sat Oct 04, 2014 2:40 pm

That time of the year now for these cyclones to form.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
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#3 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Oct 04, 2014 2:47 pm

Last few GFS runs brings this to super cyclonic storm status.
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#4 Postby Alyono » Sat Oct 04, 2014 3:33 pm

even the EC is showing some development of this area
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#5 Postby gatorcane » Sat Oct 04, 2014 8:26 pm

18Z GFS down to 968MB:
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#6 Postby Alyono » Sun Oct 05, 2014 12:16 am

Model Uccelleni 0Z run is horrific

Has this intensifying near the Irawadda Delta moving slowly (Nargis area). It lingers there for about 24 hours. It then moves toward Calcutta
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#7 Postby Alyono » Sun Oct 05, 2014 12:18 am

0Z CMC is into Bangladesh
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Re: Disturbance in SE Andaman Sea

#8 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Oct 05, 2014 2:02 am

Starting to take shape.

LOOP

Image: SSEC Real Earth
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Re: Disturbance in SE Andaman Sea

#9 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 05, 2014 8:37 am

06Z even stronger, 948 mb into eastern India...
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#10 Postby gatorcane » Sun Oct 05, 2014 10:31 am

00Z ECMWF has it going into India though not as strong:
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Re: Disturbance in SE Andaman Sea (Is Invest 99B)

#11 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 05, 2014 1:02 pm

Invest 99B is up
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