Wave just east of Lesser Antillles (is Invest 90L)

[Hurricaneman]

It seems to have a good mid level spin to it and good model support and needs to be watched in the Lesser antilles as it could be a sleeper system

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[gatorcane]

darn you just beat me to starting this thread! Yeah there is some model support and something to watch.

[lordkev]

Which model? GFS doesn't seem to show anything until 192 hours near Hispaniola.

[gatorcane]

The 12Z ECMWF develops this into a tropical storm and brings it quite far west and into the Bahamas and Southern Florida. Seems climatology would be against it getting this far west.

[blp]

Yep here it is. I am suffering model fatigue, I can't keep up with all these changes. I only post because it is the Euro. Take away for me is that things are not going to go quietly as some might have thought.

[gatorcane]

GFS showed something coming into the Bahamas/Florida from the east on the 06Z run, but dropped it on the 12Z. Now the ECMWF picks up on it. Hard to believe we could get hit from the east this late in the game but you never know.

[Steve H.]

Yep. It is there and King Euro has it at 240hr. That will change quite a bit, but this is the first time in a while the EC has something this close. Will watch this change for days to come.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[gatorcane]

It's actually not looking too bad with a nice circulation envelope and plenty of juicy air around it. Shear is very high still though. Where was this in Aug-Sept? I can see why the ECMWF may be trying to develop it down the road. If the GFS shows it on the 18Z or the UKMET on the 12Z, could see a mention by the NHC in the next outlook.

[SFLcane]

Find that highly suspect in terms of track no way. Something might develop but I will be shocked if it makes far west to FL. Next week there is another cold front poised to move into the southeast which should recurve anything out there. It's 2014 it's either development near Bermuda shooting out to sea or nothing.

[gatorcane]

850MB vorticity is on the increase (orange area east of the South-Central Leewards), just lacking convection there but convection is starting to surround it:

[gatorcane]

12Z UKMET on board:

[Hurricaneman]

looks like this wave spawned 99L and the system mentioned here, one piece towards Bermuda and another piece towards the Lesser Antilles and looking at the models there is one obvious analog to use for but this would be a month earlier

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Kate_%281985%29

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Bocadude85]

Find that highly suspect in terms of track no way. Something might develop but I will be shocked if it makes far west to FL. Next week there is another cold front poised to move into the southeast which should recurve anything out there. It's 2014 it's either development near Bermuda shooting out to sea or nothing.

Hurricane Kate in November 1985 was steered from north of Puerto Rico due west over Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico before making landfall in the panhandle. If there is a decent ridge in place then anything is possible.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Kate_(1985)#/image/File:Kate_1985_track.png

Also can not forget the 1935 Yankee Hurricane, that storm was in November also.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1935_Yankee_hurricane

[gatorcane]

Given that the reliable ECMWF and UKMET show development (and even the GFS on the 00Z and 06Z), I would think the NHC will mention this in the next outlook. Question will be when will it be tagged an invest?

[SFLcane]

Nice cold-front gatorcane waiting to scoop

[gatorcane]

12Z UKMET on board:

Nice cold-front waiting to scoop.

If you look at the 144 hour UKMET frame the front doesn't get it like the ECMWF shows. Granted I am with you, a hit from the east for us in October would be quite shocking though it has happened a handful of times in the past.

[SFLcane]

[Alyono]

12Z UKMET on board:

Nice cold-front waiting to scoop.

If you look at the 144 hour UKMET frame the front doesn't get it like the ECMWF shows. Granted I am with you, a hit from the east for us in October would be quite shocking though it has happened a handful of times in the past.

hits from the east have happened in November before

[TheStormExpert]

Never say never in the Tropics! So far this October the 500mb pattern has been acting like August/September with more pronounced ridging present here in S. FL as opposed to September when there were trough after trough making it down into North/Central FL before stalling, a pattern typical of October/November. It's been a weird weather pattern lately to say the least!

[Hammy]

I would put a bit more faith into it considering it is the Euro this time, and it's at the ten day (which oddly seems to be more accurate than the 6-9 day periods). Certainly very strange goings on, with the atmosphere pretty much acting like September both with the troughs and tropics.

And keep in mind with Sandy, at first there was only one model showing it do what it did...