Wave just east of Lesser Antillles (is Invest 90L)

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boca
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Re: wave between the Cape Verde islands and Lesser Antillles

#21 Postby boca » Thu Oct 09, 2014 4:45 pm

This system is it 99L or is this something different that's is supposed to move west.99L is a recurve becsuse of the front moving in next week?
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#22 Postby Hammy » Thu Oct 09, 2014 5:07 pm

This system appears to be the one the Euro takes into the Keys, the trough that takes 99L north will likely leave high pressure in it's wake according to the model run.
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#23 Postby gatorcane » Thu Oct 09, 2014 5:21 pm

18Z GFS rolling. Surprisingly not as bullish as the ECMWF/UKMET but does have something and has a similar track as the these two models. At 168 hours it is in the SE Bahamas where it has stalled but the cold front looks to have missed it.

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#24 Postby Hammy » Thu Oct 09, 2014 5:27 pm

If the system ends up being small (which seems to be what the model is showing) would that likely explain why the front would miss it more easily?
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#25 Postby gatorcane » Thu Oct 09, 2014 6:50 pm

Even with the ECMWF and UKMET showing some development, NHC does not mention it in this outlook.
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Re:

#26 Postby Hammy » Thu Oct 09, 2014 7:04 pm

gatorcane wrote:Even with the ECMWF and UKMET showing some development, NHC does not mention it in this outlook.


Development appears to be just beyond five days at this point, but I expect it'll start showing up in the outlooks by the weekend.
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Re: wave between the Cape Verde islands and Lesser Antillles

#27 Postby ronjon » Thu Oct 09, 2014 9:35 pm

Trof forecasted to lift up and out along the east coast and be replaced by ridging. It's why the system never gets jettisoned off into the atlantic.
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Re: wave between the Cape Verde islands and Lesser Antillles

#28 Postby boca » Thu Oct 09, 2014 9:51 pm

The area seems to be connected to 99L when I look at the sat pictures,but they should begin to seperate from each other
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#29 Postby gatorcane » Thu Oct 09, 2014 9:56 pm

Convection is blowing up big time. And look east of there...near the Cape Verde islands. There is some model support for that too. Is it really October? The switch may be flipping on.
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Re: wave between the Cape Verde islands and Lesser Antillles

#30 Postby boca » Thu Oct 09, 2014 10:04 pm

It might be that kelvin wave coming to our side of the world
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Re:

#31 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Thu Oct 09, 2014 10:13 pm

gatorcane wrote:GFS showed something coming into the Bahamas/Florida from the east on the 06Z run, but dropped it on the 12Z. Now the ECMWF picks up on it. Hard to believe we could get hit from the east this late in the game but you never know.


I don't post often but must agree something coming in from the SE this time of year is not likely. This season has been very slow with many issues causing very little to form this season any where in the MDR. So some thing forming and affecting the south east from this direction is very suspect.
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Re: Re:

#32 Postby Hammy » Thu Oct 09, 2014 10:52 pm

Miami Storm Tracker wrote:
gatorcane wrote:GFS showed something coming into the Bahamas/Florida from the east on the 06Z run, but dropped it on the 12Z. Now the ECMWF picks up on it. Hard to believe we could get hit from the east this late in the game but you never know.


I don't post often but must agree something coming in from the SE this time of year is not likely. This season has been very slow with many issues causing very little to form this season any where in the MDR. So some thing forming and affecting the south east from this direction is very suspect.


Storms have done well outside of the MDR this season, and this will be in that same region, not to mention the Euro has done quite well so far.
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Re: wave between the Cape Verde islands and Lesser Antillles

#33 Postby boca » Thu Oct 09, 2014 10:57 pm

This time of year the westerlies dig further south so the chances of something coming from the SE are low on my opinion. If high pressure does build in their is a chance but this year I have no faith in something coming from that direction.
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Re: wave between the Cape Verde islands and Lesser Antillles

#34 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Thu Oct 09, 2014 11:35 pm

boca wrote:This time of year the westerlies dig further south so the chances of something coming from the SE are low on my opinion. If high pressure does build in their is a chance but this year I have no faith in something coming from that direction.


Agree Boca,

Just not the area to be looking for a S.FLA hit. Not saying it can't happen but would be a rare hit.
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Re: wave between the Cape Verde islands and Lesser Antillles

#35 Postby tolakram » Fri Oct 10, 2014 2:05 am

Last 2 frames of the 0Z Euro run show the storm appears to recurve before Florida.

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Re: wave between the Cape Verde islands and Lesser Antillles

#36 Postby tolakram » Fri Oct 10, 2014 2:07 am

0Z GFS shows a very similar track.
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#37 Postby Hammy » Fri Oct 10, 2014 2:16 am

Doesn't appear to move much in the Bahamas either, and as a Cat 2 no less...

Presumably the recurve vs Florida track is due to higher intensity on this run?
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Re: wave between the Cape Verde islands and Lesser Antillles

#38 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 10, 2014 5:06 am

From the San Juan NWS regarding this wave.

NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 56W. BOTH THE 10/00Z GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW THIS WAVE DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON
SUNDAY AND TRACKING OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE MONDAY.
WHILE THERE IS MORE SUPPORT NOW THAN 24 HRS AGO FOR A WEAK LOW
PRES TO FORM...THE MAJORITY OF 10/00Z GEFS AND 09/12Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL SUPPORT A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY. WILL INCREASE POPS FOR MON TO INDICATE HIGHER
RAIN PROBS WHEN COMPARED TO SAT AND SUN BUT CONTINUE TO DISCOUNT
THIS LOW PRES ONLY A TROPICAL WAVE. DRYING EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TUE
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK UNDER UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT PATTERN
ON BACKSIDE OF TUTT AXIS.
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Re: Wave just east of Lesser Antillles

#39 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 10, 2014 5:58 am

Note to Hurricaneman= Modified the title of thread to put the specific area of interest that the models develop.
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#40 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Oct 10, 2014 6:51 am

Now being mentioned by the NHC as of the 8am TWO.

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased and become more
concentrated in association with a tropical wave located about 700
miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions appear
to be conducive for gradual development of this system during the
next several days while it moves moves westward or west-
northwestward to west at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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