Area of Disturbed Weather in SW Caribbean

[gatorcane]

Well time to pull the trigger on this thread. We have an area of disturbed weather in the SW Caribbean that has developed in an associated with lowering pressures across the area. The NAVGEM model in particular has been showing some possible development in about a week looking at some runs from the past several days and finally the GFS model has latched onto the area and is showing a low forming and moving NW towards the NW Caribbean with some possible development by next weekend.

Saved Carribean IR loop:


GFS model, MLSP 144 hours showing the low in the NW Caribbean:


NAVGEM, 120 hours with a low in the NW Caribbean:

[SFLcane]

(Giving Florida Something) still going add it...

[gatorcane]

Here is how the 18Z NAVGEM run ends with the low moving slowly north along the eastern coast of the yucatan, similar to the GFS but since it is over land some, it doesn't ramp it up. If you loop the full run, the origin of this low is from the area of disturbed weather that is currently in the SW Caribbean.

Full loop:
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[NDG]

Currently lots of shear in this area, including mid level shear the most disruptive for tropical systems. Perhaps lowering a bit in 72 hrs but this area still has not much support for development from King Euro which if anything shows the FL Peninsula to stay protected by a trough pattern setting in over the next 7-10 days if not longer because of the -NAO,-AO and +PNA.

[gatorcane]

There is some 850MB vorticity present in the SW Caribbean this evening:

[fci]

I think Levi talked about this area in his Tropical Tidbits yesterday and said he thought this would end up in the Western Gulf and models showed a lot of meandering of a system.

[Hurricaneman]

Is it me or does the 0zGFS try to close something weak east of Nicaragua at 60hrs or am I crazy

[LarryWx]

Is it me or does the 0zGFS try to close something weak east of Nicaragua at 60hrs or am I crazy

The MU is crazy, not you. Actually, I see nothing of note/exciting on the 0Z MU though hour 126 fwiw. I will be taking the MU with a tremendously large grain of salt until further notice when it doesn't have Euro support, especially in the W. Caribbean. It had ~30 runs over an 11 day period (and ~20 runs in a row!!) for a SW Caribbean genesis by 10/10, whch turned out to be another total flop. I'm going to treat it like it is on crack in future similar situations until the model is modified.

[Sanibel]

We'll see if this area breeds development after Gonzalo clears out. It is west of all the troughs and steering currents that have sent storms out to sea this year.

[gatorcane]

12Z NAVGEM sends the SW Caribbean area NW then N with development and here is how the run ends at 180 hours (development starts much sooner, around 4-5 days from now). The 12Z GFS is developing something on the EPAC side instead.

[gatorcane]

I am noticing a spin in the clouds in the extreme SW Caribbean. Shear is high though for sure. It looks like the NAVGEM starts to move this area NW soon out ahead of the Central CONUS/GOM trough sweeping through. But the other models move the area into Central America with no development and/or develop something in the EPAC instead.

Right now the NAVGEM is the only model I see showing development so looks like the outlier as of the 12Z runs for the area in the SW Caribbean.

[Sanibel]

Appears to be some kind of bully synoptic suppressing development in the southern Caribbean and keeping it from moving north.

[gatorcane]

I am noticing some broad cyclonic turning centered around the yellow X I drew on top of the latest SAT image of the area. If that area can move NW and stay offshore Nicaragua as the NAVGEM suggests, we could see some possible development. Once the trough digs into the Eastern CONUS, it may be enough to nudge it more NW though likely not enough as the rest of the globals suggest now. Plus, the shear is supposed to relax some the next few days.



Link to full JAVA loop where you can zoom in on the area:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html