GONZALO: Aftermath in Bermuda / New Foundland

[cycloneye]

I am making this thread ahead of the normal time for it because The Enviromental Canada Weather service has begun to release information about Gonzalo. So those who live in Eastern Canada, Bermuda and Nova Scotia have a thread to post about preparations,Observations if there are web cams etc.Hopefully,Gonsalo doesn't hit any of the areas.

Bermuda Weather Service: http://www.weather.bm/imagery.asp

Bermuda Radar: http://www.weather.bm/radarLarge.asp

Bermuda news: http://bernews.com/

Bermuda Web Cams:
http://portbermudawebcam.com/
http://bda.click2stream.com/


First warning from Enviromental Canada.

2:45 PM ADT Tuesday 14 October 2014
Tropical cyclone information statement for:

NEWFOUNDLAND
NOVA SCOTIA


For hurricane Gonzalo.

The next statement will be issued by 9:00 PM ADT.

Hurricane Gonzalo expected to track north-northeastward later this week - potential impacts over land.

Hurricane Gonzalo intensified quickly this past weekend and is moving away from the northeast caribbean. It is forecast to intensify to category-3 intensity this week. A cold front extending well into the subtropics will guide the hurricane northward near Bermuda, potentially drawing moisture over Nova Scotia and Newfoundland on Friday. The centre of the storm may track anywhere from just east of Cape Breton to well offshore over the Grand Banks - which is approximately a 600-km span of uncertainty. Timing of the storm's possible impact over land or closest offshore approach will be in the late Friday to late Saturday timeframe.

The Canadian Hurricane Centre will likely begin regular bulletins by Wednesday afternoon since the storm is expected to at least affect our offshore marine district.

Visit weather.gc.ca/hurricane (all in lower case) for the latest.

Please also refer to the public and marine forecasts and warnings issued by Environment Canada for your area.

Forecaster(s): fogarty

http://weather.gc.ca/hurricane/statements_e.html

[cycloneye]

5 PM EDT track goes over or very close to Bermuda and then Nova Scotia is on line.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
1100 PM AST TUE OCT 14 2014

...GONZALO MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH 125 MPH
WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 66.6W
ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR
BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

[cycloneye]

11 PM EDT track.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
1100 AM AST WED OCT 15 2014

...GONZALO STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 68.0W
ABOUT 640 MI...1025 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN ABOUT 48 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY FOR BERMUDA THIS
AFTERNOON.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.0 WEST. GONZALO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION BY LATE THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 130 MPH...215
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GONZALO IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES...AND ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH
GONZALO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 949 MB...28.03 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER BERMUDA ON FRIDAY...
WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS. SWELLS WILL REACH
MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA ON THURSDAY.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[msbee]

posted by Bermuda Royal Gazette on their Facebook page about an hour ago:

#Bermuda NEWS
Wind speeds to be expected for Hurricane Gonzalo, which will start reaching Bermuda on Thursday, are as follows.
• Tropical storm force winds of at least 39 miles per hour will begin in Bermuda's marine area around 9 to 10pm, and on the Island at about 11pm to midnight on Thursday.
• Fifty knot winds, which are nearly 60 miles per hour, will begin in the marine area at about 5am Friday, and onshore by 8am.
• Hurricane force winds -- sustained winds or frequent gusts of 74 miles per hour or greater -- will start at 11am Friday in the marine area, and on land at 12 noon.
As for the cessation of winds, it's estimated by the Bermuda Weather Service that hurricane force winds will abate on land by 4pm Friday, and 6pm in the marine area.
• Fifty knot winds should cease by 6pm on Friday on land, and by 8pm Friday in the marine area.
• Tropical storm force winds should have abated by 9pm on Friday, and by 11pm to midnight Friday in the Island's marine area.

[abajan]

Recent press conference:
http://bernews.com/2014/10/video-text-p ... e-gonzalo/

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
500 PM AST WED OCT 15 2014

...MAJOR HURRICANE GONZALO CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 68.6W
ABOUT 610 MI...985 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR
BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

[cycloneye]

5 PM EDT Track.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
800 PM AST WED OCT 15 2014

...HURRICANE GONZALO TURNS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 68.7W
ABOUT 590 MI...955 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.



DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.7 WEST. GONZALO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN TO NORTH IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ACCELERATION BY LATE THURSDAY. GONZALO IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR
BERMUDA ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GONZALO IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN
MAJOR HURRICANES...AND ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH GONZALO OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 953 MB...28.15 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER BERMUDA ON FRIDAY...
WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY MORNING. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE
WINDWARD SIDES OF HILLY TERRAIN ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER
THAN AT THE SURFACE...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE EVEN
GREATER.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN BERMUDA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS. SWELLS WILL REACH
MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA ON THURSDAY.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
1100 PM AST WED OCT 15 2014

...GONZALO TURNS NORTHWARD AND AIMS AT BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 68.7W
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
500 AM AST THU OCT 16 2014

...GONZALO REACHES CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH AGAIN...
...CONDITIONS ON BERMUDA EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.3N 68.7W
ABOUT 540 MI...865 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.7 WEST. GONZALO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR
BERMUDA ON FRIDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GONZALO IS
A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND
SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES...
AND ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH GONZALO TODAY. SLOW WEAKENING IS
FORECAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BE A
DANGEROUS HURRICANE WHEN IT MOVES NEAR BERMUDA. STEADY WEAKENING
SHOULD BEGIN BY LATE FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM. NOAA BUOY 41046...LOCATED ABOUT 90 MILES...145 KM...
SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF GONZALO...RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND
OF 42 MPH...68 KM/H...AND A GUST OF 51 MPH...83 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA ON
FRIDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND
ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF HILLY TERRAIN ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT
STRONGER THAN AT THE SURFACE...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE
EVEN GREATER.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN BERMUDA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS. SWELLS WILL REACH
MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA TODAY. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[msbee]

expecting the worst in Bermuda

http://www.royalgazette.com/article/201 ... /141019788

[northjaxpro]

For those who want to observe the conditions in Bermuda with the approach of extremely dangerous major Hurricane Gonzalo, here is a link of Port Bermuda webcam:

http://www.portbermudawebcam.com/

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Looking more likely Gonzalo won't have much if any impact here in the Maritimes, perhaps not even in Newfoundland if the models keep trending SE.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

I pray for the people of Bermuda that nothing bad occurs as Gonzalo passes thru the area.

[msbee]

#‎Bermuda‬ NEWS
Royal Gazette Facebook post:
HMS Argyll is heading to Bermuda to provide disaster relief assistance after Hurricane Gonzalo. The Royal Navy warship is steaming towards the island from the Caribbean and could get here as early as Saturday.

[Alyono]

shouldn't the CHC advisories go in the advisories thread since they are official advisories?

[cycloneye]

You are right .They were moved.

[cycloneye]

5 PM EDT track.No change from the worse case scenario track.