2014-15 SHEM Season

[CrazyC83]

Somewhat OT, but it was 40 years ago today that Cyclone Tracy flattened Darwin...

[jaguarjace]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 1:46 pm WST on Saturday 3 January 2015
for the period until midnight WST Tuesday 6 January 2015.

Potential Cyclones:
An active monsoon trough stretches from waters south of Indonesia to the
northern tip of the Kimberley, where a low has formed over land southwest of
Wyndham. The low is moving slowly westwards. The risk of a tropical cyclone is
dependent on whether the low moves over open water, which is possible from mid
next week.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Sunday: Low
Monday: Low
Tuesday: Moderate

[euro6208]

ALL 12Z GFS

Southwestern Pacific



GFS keeps 970's over Samoa



Develops a cyclone near New Guinea and weakens as it passes between New Zealand and New Caledonia. Another system slightly develops in the Gulf Of Carpentaria, makes landfall over north Queensland, and reemerges over the GOC but weak...



Tropical Cyclone over Vanuatu...

Australia



GFS doesn't develop 99S over water and no cyclones in the future...

Indian Ocean





Develops a deep low in the central Indian Ocean but dissipates but develops two tropical storm equivalent, One makes landfall over Madagascar...

[jaguarjace]

Invest 91P is up


Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Three Day Outlook for the Coral Sea
Issued at 2:46 pm EST on Thursday 8 January 2015
for the period until midnight EST Sunday 11 January 2015.

Potential Cyclones:
A monsoon trough currently lies over the far northern Coral Sea, with a weak
low embedded in the trough south of Papua New Guinea and another near the
Solomon Islands. The monsoon trough is expected to develop further as it drifts
south into the Coral Sea into the weekend. There is an increasing risk of
tropical cyclone development over the weekend and into early next week. The
lows are expected to remain offshore of the Queensland coast in the short term
but the situation will continue be monitored carefully.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Friday: Low
Saturday: Moderate
Sunday: High

[jaguarjace]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eY3OPftMPmU[/youtube]

[euro6208]

All of these model runs focuses mostly around Australia. Last time i checked there is also the South Pacific and Indian Ocean

We would expect at least a tropical cyclone develop around Australia according to the models which furiously try to develop something but that doesn't seem to be the case. Seems like they are having a hard time developing...

Nice surprise on Cat 5 Bansi...

[euro6208]

Besides Bansi, there has been only 9 other Cat 4 cyclones in the South Indian since 2000

[somethingfunny]

Cross-posted from the Cyclone Bansi thread, we're only in January and already this basin is producing some stunning images:

Three incredible images from earlier this week. First one is of Bansi and Chedza "holding hands" and the latter two are of Bansi's eyewall lightning seen from the International Space Station and are among the most incredible photographs I have ever seen.

[euro6208]

Very rare...

140 knots Category 5 in the South Indian Ocean west of Australia since 1980...

Let's welcome Bansi...

[euro6208]

Latest runs from EURO and GFS showing no development around the AUSTRALIAN REGION...

EURO and GFS = SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN

Develops a cyclone



GFS develops 2 Tropical Cyclones...





====================================================================

EURO and GFS for the SOUTH PACIFIC



Tremendous low pressure at Samoa and bottoming out to 898 mb in 240 hours and out pops a Cyclone and makes a direct hit on Fiji and bottoming out at 928 mb...

[euro6208]

[Alyono]

have an interesting system with gale force winds off of Brazil near 26S, 45W

[jaguarjace]

have an interesting system with gale force winds off of Brazil near 26S, 45W

Monitored as a Subtropical Depression by the Brazil Navy. I've contacted Nancy at SSD to set up a floater for this system.

[wxman57]

Quite a few 35kt and 40kt winds in the latest ASCAT just a few hours ago. It's more than a subtropical depression, clearly:

[jaguarjace]

Floater has successfully been configured and is now available at:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float1.html


Dry air to the west of the system.

[euro6208]

Tropical Cyclone Niko passing between Fiji and Samoa in the South Pacific's Polynesian Islands...Peaked as a 55 knots tropical storm...

Only 2 storms moved through this part of the region during this time of year since 1948...

[euro6208]

ECMWF



GFS

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

Category 5 140 knots Eunice, South Indian Ocean...