2014-15 SHEM Season

[jaguarjace]

- Average to below-average tropical cyclone activity is most likely for the Australian region.
- Near average tropical cyclone season likely for the South Pacific.

The next 6 or 12 names to be used:

South Atlantic Ocean: Bapo - Cari - Deni - Eçaí - Guará - Iba

South Indian Ocean: Adjali - Bansi - Chedza - Diamondra - Eunice - Fundi - Glenda - Haliba - Ikola - Joalane - Kesha - Lugenda

Australian Region: Kate - Lam - Marcia - Nathan - Olwyn - Quang - Raquel - Stan - Tatiana - Uriah - Yvette - Alfred

Indonesia: Bakung - Cempaka - Dahlia - Flamboyan - Kenanga - Lili

Papua New Guinea: Alu - Buri - Dodo - Emau - Fere - Hibu

South Pacific Ocean: Niko - Ola - Pam - Reuben - Solo - Tuni - Ula - Victor - Winston - Yalo - Zena - Amos

[jaguarjace]

GFS has a developing tropical low in the Indian Ocean in 5 days time.

[RainbowAppleJackDash]

There is a HURRICANE KESHA?

[jaguarjace]

There is a HURRICANE KESHA?

Depending on how active the South Indian Ocean would be, we might be able to see Tropical Cyclone Kesha in that basin.

Invest 93S is up

[euro6208]

How does ENSO affect this vast region? Does it become more active or less?

[jaguarjace]

How does ENSO affect this vast region? Does it become more active or less?

Tropical Pacific Ocean ENSO indicators remain within the neutral range, having failed to maintain sustained values typical of El Niño. However, given the persistent warmth in the tropical Pacific Ocean, models continue to suggest an El Niño remains possible during the last quarter of 2014.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has returned to neutral recently after being consistently negative since June. Climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate neutral conditions are very likely to remain during the last quarter of 2014.

ENSO Wrap-Up

[HurricaneBill]

El Nino usually means very active SPAC with strong TCs. It also usually means an intense cyclone making landfall on Western Australia.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

El Nino usually means very active SPAC with strong TCs. It also usually means an intense cyclone making landfall on Western Australia.

Are Larry and Monica 2006 examples?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

How does ENSO affect this vast region? Does it become more active or less?

In the SPAC, it becomes more active. In fact, there were 2 category 5 cyclones in the 1997-98 season that existed at the same time - roughly the equivalent of Super Typhoons Ivan and Joan to the north a few months prior.

The two most active tropical cyclone seasons ever recorded in the SPAC occurred during 2 exceptionally powerful El Niños. 1997-98 had the most named cyclones at 16; 1982-83 had the most hurricane-equivalent at 10.

[somethingfunny]

Really, another Odile?

[Yellow Evan]

We don't have a Modoki.

[wxman57]

Signs are pointing to a below-average Australia season.

[jaguarjace]

Invest 95S thread

The retired names Oswald and Rusty have been replaced with Osama and Rubina.


However, Osama has just been rejected and awaits another replacement.

[jaguarjace]

Invest 96P is up


Another system is expected in the SIO soon (This is now Invest 97S):

[euro6208]

Interesting that GFS has a stationary 970's something stalled over Samoa through the next 200 hours...anyone know what that is?

[jaguarjace]

TC Bakung is up

[euro6208]

Found this confusing side by side comparison of Saffir Simpson 1 min scale and 10 min Australian scale...

Better to start at the top first

Category 3 1 min 100 knots U.S = 85 knots 10 min AUS

Category 5 10 min AUS = 125 knots 1 min Cat 4 U.S

[euro6208]

Interesting that GFS has a stationary 970's something stalled over Samoa through the next 200 hours...anyone know what that is?

Still there with a twist...

Brings it down to 966 mb during the next 200 hours and look a tropical cyclone appears out of nowhere!

[jaguarjace]

Could see TC Nute between Samoa and Tahiti next week.

[jaguarjace]

Invest 95S & Invest 94P are up