2014-15 SHEM Season

[Yellow Evan]

GFS is not alone. Both CMC and Euro make this very powerful at the end of their 10 day runs.

[jaguarjace]

Invest 93P is now up

[euro6208]

Strong MJO in the Southern Hemisphere!

[jaguarjace]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Friday 6 March 2015
for the period until midnight WST Monday 9 March 2015.

Potential Cyclones:
There are no significant lows in the Western Region at present. A tropical low
is expected to form south of Indonesia on Sunday or Monday. There is only a
small chance of this system developing into a tropical cyclone on Monday. The
likelihood increases later next week but at this stage there is no discernible
threat to communities.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Saturday: Very Low
Sunday: Very Low
Monday: Low

[euro6208]

Looks like GFS forecast that cyclone to move towards Vanuatu after Pam if indeed it will...

Maybe a 1-2 punch for the poor island nation...

[jaguarjace]

12Z GFS model shows a possible subtropical system forming off the coast of Brazil in 4 days.

[somethingfunny]

Lol, um...........





I'm guessing this is a tad overdone by the GFS.

[Yellow Evan]

Lol, um...........





I'm guessing this is a tad overdone by the GFS.

See 93P's thread.

[jaguarjace]

Hopefully more rain from this WA cyclone.
2011 Bianca was such a teaser in Perth.

[dexterlabio]

is it just me or is the SHEM cyclone season actually very active this year?

[jaguarjace]

[euro6208]

is it just me or is the SHEM cyclone season actually very active this year?

Actually somewhat average to below average...ACE wise is only 77% of normal 115.675 compared to the norm 149...

It's just a ramp up as the SHEM season ends next month...

[jaguarjace]

Nathan has formed off the coast of Queensland.
Cari has formed south of Brazil.
Olwyn has formed north of Western Australia.

[Yellow Evan]

Here we go again.



6z run.

[euro6208]

Even stronger on the latest GFS down to 903 mb. Next name would be Solo, fitting name as it won't affect a populated landmass although Niue and the Cook islands should watch this one as any deviation could bring this closer to them.

More sustained westerly wind burst!

[jaguarjace]

Radar timelapse of the severe weather in NSW, Australia, April 20-21, 2015.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fNRxMaUYLag[/youtube]

[euro6208]

Truly a great season they had down there but sad for the many lives lost...

[euro6208]

Australian tropical cyclone season officially closes
The Australian 2014-15 tropical cyclone season has officially ended. Seven tropical cyclones formed or moved into the Australian region, with four making landfall on the Australian continent. Seven tropical cyclones in the Australian region is below the long-term average of eleven; however, four storms crossing the Australian coastline is equal to the long-term average for cyclones making landfall.
The first tropical cyclone to develop over Australian waters was tropical cyclone Kate. Kate developed over the eastern Indian Ocean on 21 December 2014, reaching category 4 before weakening over the ocean. The northern Australia monsoon onset occurred at Darwin shortly afterwards on 31 December. The monsoon continued for the first two weeks of January. Although two lows formed within the monsoon trough during this period, neither storm strengthened to tropical cyclone strength.
On 20 February two tropical cyclones, Lam and Marcia, made landfall over the Australian coast within hours of each other. Tropical cyclone Lam, which developed to tropical cyclone strength in the Gulf of Carpentaria, tracked slowly westwards, then crossed the coast near Milingimbi in the Northern Territory. Tropical Cyclone Marcia developed to tropical cyclone strength in the Coral Sea and crossed the coast near Yeppoon in Queensland. Both tropical cyclones caused significant damage to property.
Almost a month later, in March, two other tropical cyclones formed and crossed the Australian coastline. Tropical cyclone Olwyn reached Western Australia on 15 March at category 3 strength, while tropical cyclone Nathan formed over the Coral Sea. Nathan was a long-lived system that crossed the Australian coastline three times in March: Cape York on the 20th, Arnhem Land on the 22nd and the north coast near Milingimbi on the 24th.
In the first week of April tropical cyclone Ikola moved into the Australian region, but did not make landfall. The final storm to form in the Australian area was tropical cyclone Quang, which formed off the northwest coast on 28 April and crossed the coast as a tropical low on 1 May.