Possible Development in the BOC (Is Invest 93L)

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Re: Possible Development in the BOC

#161 Postby blp » Sun Oct 19, 2014 11:44 pm

Miami Storm Tracker wrote:
blp wrote:
Miami Storm Tracker wrote:Evening BLP,

Things have changed a bit since a couple of days ago. Models were showing it getting pushed back into Mexico, and in some cases backing off off anything getting going. But as things are coming together it is something we need to watch. As I mentioned before climatology favors a direction towards south Florida this time of year.


00z GFS is different than previous. Keeps low in NW Carribean so far at 150hr and ramping up. Worried this might be a hurricane on this run.



Which run the 18z had it getting stretched out as it headed ENE


Yea, btw, 228hr 00z hurricane just off south florida.
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#162 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Oct 19, 2014 11:48 pm

The track on the 0zGFS is similar to Irene in 1999 except its about 75 miles farther east

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Re: Possible Development in the BOC

#163 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Sun Oct 19, 2014 11:52 pm

Well at lest it's still in the long range, until we have something for models to work with the track and how strong is a guess.
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Re:

#164 Postby SFLcane » Sun Oct 19, 2014 11:52 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:The track on the 0zGFS is similar to Irene in 1999 except its about 75 miles farther east

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That would put the worst of the wx into the south florida IF it were to come to pass.
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Re: Possible Development in the BOC

#165 Postby blp » Sun Oct 19, 2014 11:55 pm

Miami Storm Tracker wrote:Well at lest it's still in the long range, until we have something for models to work with the track and how strong is a guess.


Yea and its the GFS which has not been good. What it shows is the potential if this where to get left behind. I was worried about that scenario. Let's see what the king has to say.
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Re: Possible Development in the BOC

#166 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Oct 19, 2014 11:59 pm

SFLcane wrote:Potent hurricane into South Florida...

Image

Looks like the GFS is up to it's usual tricks! :roll:

What is this like the 500th time this season it has a hurricane threat for as. FL coming out of the NW Caribbean?
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Re: Possible Development in the BOC

#167 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Mon Oct 20, 2014 12:00 am

Not staying up that late let me know what it shows tomorrow.
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Re: Possible Development in the BOC

#168 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Mon Oct 20, 2014 12:01 am

TheStormExpert wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Potent hurricane into South Florida...

Image

Looks like the GFS is up to it's usual tricks! :roll:

What is this like the 500th time this season it has a hurricane threat for as. FL coming out of the NW Caribbean?


Just need to hope it does not decide to be right this time.
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Re: Possible Development in the BOC

#169 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Oct 20, 2014 12:02 am

Miami Storm Tracker wrote:Not staying up that late let me know what it shows tomorrow.

My guess is it will show a completely different solution, and overall pattern setup. The GFS is just plain nuts these days!
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Re: Possible Development in the BOC

#170 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Oct 20, 2014 12:03 am

Miami Storm Tracker wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:
SFLcane wrote:Potent hurricane into South Florida...

Image

Looks like the GFS is up to it's usual tricks! :roll:

What is this like the 500th time this season it has a hurricane threat for as. FL coming out of the NW Caribbean?


Just need to hope it does not decide to be right this time.

Yes indeed! Every blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while.
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#171 Postby Hammy » Mon Oct 20, 2014 2:16 am

Euro has now lost the system, and when it shows something for a few runs and then loses it, that generally indicates future development.
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Re: Possible Development in the BOC

#172 Postby blazess556 » Mon Oct 20, 2014 3:27 am

This area of disturbed weather has been named Invest 93L, center at 19.5°N 95.5°W. It appears it may begin development in the Bay of Campeche before meandering across the Yucatan into the southern Gulf or northwest Caribbean.
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Re: Possible Development in the BOC

#173 Postby NDG » Mon Oct 20, 2014 3:34 am

Models have gone from consistency to inconsistency, making it now difficult for the NHC to declare it an Invest.
There is just too much shear in the GOM for this system to get that organized and unless it gets down in the Caribbean it may stay looking like a frontal low as it possibly tracks across S FL or FL Straights.

Edit: I spoke too soon, this is now 93L indeed.
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Re: Possible Development in the BOC

#174 Postby SFLcane » Mon Oct 20, 2014 4:21 am

Last edited by AJC3 on Mon Oct 20, 2014 12:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Edited to add link to 93L thread
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