Looking at the latest plum of ENSO models, some call for an El Nino next season. So, how could this help/hurt the ATL? Either way, I'm thinking more of the same of 2013-14.
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It's never too early to talk about 2015
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Hurricaneman
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I would imagine something similar to this year with 1 or 2 less hurricanes and 1 less major
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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CrazyC83
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It's a tough call. IF the delayed El Nino takes hold, then it could be a really, really quiet season.
But there haven't been 3 consecutive lower-activity seasons since 1992-94 and few examples of such exist in HURDAT. So maybe the other factors will become favorable and allow for higher activity.
Some years that strike me as POSSIBLE analogs: 1964, 1969, 1974 and 1984. No real correlations in those years...
But there haven't been 3 consecutive lower-activity seasons since 1992-94 and few examples of such exist in HURDAT. So maybe the other factors will become favorable and allow for higher activity.
Some years that strike me as POSSIBLE analogs: 1964, 1969, 1974 and 1984. No real correlations in those years...
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Andrew92
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One must be careful about trusting the models about El Nino as far out as the beginning of the 2015 season. I think I've said it recently before in another thread, that there were some seemingly reliable models that said the EPAC would be about 2 degrees above normal by now and we would have one of our strongest El Nino events ever. That obviously didn't pan out in that kind of fashion, however the El Nino finally appears to be flexing its muscles. Still, most El Nino's peak right around Christmas time or just after, and that is the basis for the name, translated to the Christ child.
I also was reading something on Mark Sudduth's website and he seemed to imply that he had similar doubts about the lack of activity continuing, simply because it's hard to trust the models that far in advance. He also suggested that El Nino could have the effect of re-moistening the tropical air, allowing for more disturbances to develop into storms. However, I also have learned in the last year or so that the IOD plays a big factor in allowing disturbances to develop in the first place, and in 2013 the IOD was quite weak. Maybe the El Nino will create a stronger IOD then?
It's also hard to ignore what the EPAC did this hurricane season, even if the El Nino wasn't official yet. There were clearly conditions on and off throughout the season for there to be as many majors in that basin as there were. Plus, somebody educate me here, but El Nino conditions also usually create steering conditions for more hurricanes near the peak of the season to curve towards Baja and the Southwestern states, am I correct about that? Don't get me going on Norbert and Odile, but we in Arizona definitely had to watch even Polo, Rachel, and Simon later in the year for possible flooding from remnants (Simon was the only real threat of the three as it turned out and he produced almost nil in my area, but still, better safe than sorry). I was less concerned about Vance, but it made the signature turn as well, but in a somewhat less concerning location.
If I am to guess what 2015 looks like for next year, I think we get a somewhat more active season, but the Atlantic won't have fully recovered from El Nino just yet. I envision a year with lots of quantity but little quality. However, the quality storms could be quite damaging. For one thing, a common track in the first season immediately following a traditional El Nino event seems to be a very powerful hurricane cruising in the Caribbean. Examples of this in such years include Inez in 1966, Greta in 1978, Gilbert in 1988, and Dean and Felix in 2007. It doesn't always happen, but such an event should definitely be considered if the El Nino indeed weakens just before or as the season begins.
But one other thing concerns me. 2013 was clearly a non-El Nino year, and no hurricanes reached the US coast. But El Nino conditions were on and off in 2014, and a hurricane did strike the US coast, Arthur. There have been a few cases in which an El Nino event featured a US hurricane, immediately after a year in which the US was spared. Such years include 1983 (though 1982 was the stronger year, conditions were still prevalent, and no hurricanes the the coast that year or the year before), 1991, and 2002. 1963 is still pending review but Cindy is looking to be downgraded, though Ginny was quite close as well, looping just off the Southeast Coast for several days. Still, a common theme the year after these years is a hurricane with a major-hurricane pressure has reached the coast. Diana grazed North Carolina in 1984, Andrew plowed into Florida and Louisiana in 1992, and Isabel pounded the Outer Banks (although a Category 2 on the scale, her pressure was in the 950s, more often associated with Category 3's). As for the 1964 example immediately after 1963, Hilda hit Louisiana as a Category 3 as well, and Dora was close as she plowed into St. Augustine.
These can't be our only predictors for 2015, and maybe El Nino will last through the whole season next year. All I'm saying for now is I have my doubts 2015 will go down as an El Nino year, and if it doesn't, these are the types of things we probably should most be watching for when the hurricane season starts up again. But if it does, then hopefully good news for a quieter Atlantic, with a caution that it still only takes one to make a season.
-Andrew92
One must be careful about trusting the models about El Nino as far out as the beginning of the 2015 season. I think I've said it recently before in another thread, that there were some seemingly reliable models that said the EPAC would be about 2 degrees above normal by now and we would have one of our strongest El Nino events ever. That obviously didn't pan out in that kind of fashion, however the El Nino finally appears to be flexing its muscles. Still, most El Nino's peak right around Christmas time or just after, and that is the basis for the name, translated to the Christ child.
I also was reading something on Mark Sudduth's website and he seemed to imply that he had similar doubts about the lack of activity continuing, simply because it's hard to trust the models that far in advance. He also suggested that El Nino could have the effect of re-moistening the tropical air, allowing for more disturbances to develop into storms. However, I also have learned in the last year or so that the IOD plays a big factor in allowing disturbances to develop in the first place, and in 2013 the IOD was quite weak. Maybe the El Nino will create a stronger IOD then?
It's also hard to ignore what the EPAC did this hurricane season, even if the El Nino wasn't official yet. There were clearly conditions on and off throughout the season for there to be as many majors in that basin as there were. Plus, somebody educate me here, but El Nino conditions also usually create steering conditions for more hurricanes near the peak of the season to curve towards Baja and the Southwestern states, am I correct about that? Don't get me going on Norbert and Odile, but we in Arizona definitely had to watch even Polo, Rachel, and Simon later in the year for possible flooding from remnants (Simon was the only real threat of the three as it turned out and he produced almost nil in my area, but still, better safe than sorry). I was less concerned about Vance, but it made the signature turn as well, but in a somewhat less concerning location.
If I am to guess what 2015 looks like for next year, I think we get a somewhat more active season, but the Atlantic won't have fully recovered from El Nino just yet. I envision a year with lots of quantity but little quality. However, the quality storms could be quite damaging. For one thing, a common track in the first season immediately following a traditional El Nino event seems to be a very powerful hurricane cruising in the Caribbean. Examples of this in such years include Inez in 1966, Greta in 1978, Gilbert in 1988, and Dean and Felix in 2007. It doesn't always happen, but such an event should definitely be considered if the El Nino indeed weakens just before or as the season begins.
But one other thing concerns me. 2013 was clearly a non-El Nino year, and no hurricanes reached the US coast. But El Nino conditions were on and off in 2014, and a hurricane did strike the US coast, Arthur. There have been a few cases in which an El Nino event featured a US hurricane, immediately after a year in which the US was spared. Such years include 1983 (though 1982 was the stronger year, conditions were still prevalent, and no hurricanes the the coast that year or the year before), 1991, and 2002. 1963 is still pending review but Cindy is looking to be downgraded, though Ginny was quite close as well, looping just off the Southeast Coast for several days. Still, a common theme the year after these years is a hurricane with a major-hurricane pressure has reached the coast. Diana grazed North Carolina in 1984, Andrew plowed into Florida and Louisiana in 1992, and Isabel pounded the Outer Banks (although a Category 2 on the scale, her pressure was in the 950s, more often associated with Category 3's). As for the 1964 example immediately after 1963, Hilda hit Louisiana as a Category 3 as well, and Dora was close as she plowed into St. Augustine.
These can't be our only predictors for 2015, and maybe El Nino will last through the whole season next year. All I'm saying for now is I have my doubts 2015 will go down as an El Nino year, and if it doesn't, these are the types of things we probably should most be watching for when the hurricane season starts up again. But if it does, then hopefully good news for a quieter Atlantic, with a caution that it still only takes one to make a season.
-Andrew92
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Hurricaneman
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I'm going to put out a forecast for the 2015 season around the first of December but due to uncertainty will be subject to possible large errors but heres the synopsis of it
More US landfalls than 2014
More storms than 2014
less hurricanes than 2014
same amount of majors to 2014
Gulf coast is my prime area to watch
ENSO will be +neutral
PDO will be +2 or more
SOI will go +
MDR will still be anemic until 50W
but I'm going to put some reasoning behind it in the full forecast
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
More US landfalls than 2014
More storms than 2014
less hurricanes than 2014
same amount of majors to 2014
Gulf coast is my prime area to watch
ENSO will be +neutral
PDO will be +2 or more
SOI will go +
MDR will still be anemic until 50W
but I'm going to put some reasoning behind it in the full forecast
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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TheStormExpert
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IMO, it's just way too early for me to be making any sort of prediction on what the 2015 season may be like when: 1) We still have 8 days left of the 2014 season. 2) The dependent factor (El Niño) haven't even officially formed yet, and 3) Predictions this early out usually change almost a dozen times prior to June 1st. I'll look into things more at least when the El Niño officialy arrives, and then I'll make some early predictions come early spring.
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cycloneye
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Re: It's never too early to talk about 2015
That was a good discussion Andrew. I will not venture so early to predict the 2015 season as I will ponder many factors that will be important for the season to be active or not.
A reminder that the Storm2k numbers poll will begin on April 1rst so there is plenty of time for the members to think about how the season will be in the numbers front.
A reminder that the Storm2k numbers poll will begin on April 1rst so there is plenty of time for the members to think about how the season will be in the numbers front.
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Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:It's a tough call. IF the delayed El Nino takes hold, then it could be a really, really quiet season.
But there haven't been 3 consecutive lower-activity seasons since 1992-94 and few examples of such exist in HURDAT. So maybe the other factors will become favorable and allow for higher activity.
Some years that strike me as POSSIBLE analogs: 1964, 1969, 1974 and 1984. No real correlations in those years...
1969 was El Nino, while 1964, 1974, and 1984 were La Nina. 1973-1974 had a strong La Nina.
1964 and 1969 had warm Atlantic, while 1974 and 1984 had cool Atlantic.
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CrazyC83
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It will definitely be one of the hardest years to predict, a lot harder than 2014 (when there was good consensus of a slow year right from day one). Climatology does not support three consecutive slow years (that is very rare even in inactive cycles), but the negative conditions are still very much present.
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