2015 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

With the 2014 season 100% over, it's time to move on to 2015. Many models, including the CFS and Euro depict an El Nino lasting through next season. Given the late start to 2014 as well the fact it's been a record 28 years since the last multi-year El Nino, this seems reasonable. Even then, there is 0 support for La Nina conditions next season. In addition, +PDO flipped positive in January, and has not looked back. Good chance this is a pattern and not something temporary, given the fact that most PDO cycle are short (`10 years, the last few have been unusual in that they lasted 15-30 years). We've been in a - from 1998 (although some would say 2007) to 2013. If we are headed back to +PDO, chances are the active era comes along with it. However, this is no guarantee. All in all, though, I like our chances at another active season, maybe not as crazy as this season though who knows. 2014 proved that anything is possible.

Here are some graphics: (I want this to be like the ENSO thread with all the needed info in the 1st post)

[Ntxw]

While the CFSv2 ENSO forecast itself has been far from stellar, it's NPAC SST configuration forecast has been really good this year (+PDO). It maintains this look at least through the first half of 2015. As long as this is the case the background influence is for better overall environment for EPAC development.

[cycloneye]

If this MSLP forecast by ECMWF pans out it will be another very active season in EPAC but is very early.

[CrazyC83]

Agreed, that looks like another hyperactive year in the EPAC in 2015.

[Yellow Evan]

Agreed, that looks like another hyperactive year in the EPAC in 2015.

Too early to know for sure, but def leaning that way.

[Ntxw]

Per the ENSO thread, quite a strong +PDO came in for November. Another oceanic Kelvin wave is pushing in the far WPAC below. I think conditions in 2015 may resemble much like 2014 did as long range indicators still suggest similar SST config with favorable pressures in the EPAC.

[Yellow Evan]

Per the ENSO thread, quite a strong +PDO came in for November. Another oceanic Kelvin wave is pushing in the far WPAC below. I think conditions in 2015 may resemble much like 2014 did as long range indicators still suggest similar SST config with favorable pressures in the EPAC.

Also factors to look at: wind shear, QBQ, and dry air.

[cycloneye]

Here are the names for the 2015 season. My bigger ones (Cat 4+) will be Enrique,Hilda,yes again Linda and Olaf.

Andres
Blanca
Carlos
Dolores
Enrique
Felicia
Guillermo
Hilda
Ignacio
Jimena
Kevin
Linda
Marty
Nora
Olaf
Patricia
Rick
Sandra
Terry
Vivian
Waldo
Xina
York
Zelda

[Yellow Evan]

The names Marty and Olaf kinda scare me a bit.

[CrazyC83]

2015 has Ana in the Atlantic and Olaf in the EPAC. But no Elsa...

[jaguarjace]

2015 has Ana in the Atlantic and Olaf in the EPAC. But no Elsa...

If only Ela in the CPAC was Elsa.

[cycloneye]

If and is a big if El Nino develops into a Modoki (ENSO Thread) ,what effects that configuration if any the activity in this basin may have?

[PurpleLemonBurrito]

2015 has Ana in the Atlantic and Olaf in the EPAC. But no Elsa...

If only Ela in the CPAC was Elsa.

We also need Kristoff...
And Marty was in 1985 too. Guess he came to 2015 with a time machine, get the hoverboards out!
Plus Ignacio reminds me of nachos.
I think Kevin Bacon or Linda will be pretty strong.

[PurpleLemonBurrito]

Here are the names for the 2015 season. My bigger ones (Cat 4+) will be Enrique,Hilda,yes again Linda and Olaf.

Andres
Blanca
Carlos
Dolores
Enrique
Felicia
Guillermo
Hilda
Ignacio
Jimena
Kevin
Linda
Marty
Nora
Olaf
Patricia
Rick
Sandra
Terry
Vivian
Waldo
Xina
York
Zelda

RICK?!? We're gonna get rickrolled!!

[PurpleLemonBurrito]

2015 has Ana in the Atlantic and Olaf in the EPAC. But no Elsa...

If only Ela in the CPAC was Elsa.

If only Ana in the CPAC formed in 2015, we could have Ela, Ana and Olaf!!

[cycloneye]

Let's see how the PDO at +2.51 helps the EPAC in the next few months to maintain things favorable for the season.

[Yellow Evan]

Only takes two runs for the new GFS to show a phantom TC.

[Yellow Evan]

From twitter:

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 12h12 hours ago

Newly upgraded GFS 12z develops a tropical storm in the North Eastern Pacific over next 4-days. pic.twitter.com/ZVha4gZgge

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 12h12 hours ago

@RyanMaue so did the 6z gfs/gfsp develop a low there as well?

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue

@EricBlake12 yes, both ops/parallel have been insistent on it. "old" 06Z:

ECMWF and CMC also show it to some extent. Incredible.

[Hurricanehink]

Is this the start of whatever the models are picking up? Lots of convection.

[Yellow Evan]

Is this the start of whatever the models are picking up? Lots of convection.

Yes, Hink. I think this is a convective feedback issue, with all that divergence.