2015 EPAC Season

[Extratropical94]

I wonder why this is still not a invest?

11 AM PDT TWO:

An area of low pressure is expected to form within an elongated
surface trough several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula during the next day or two.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for subsequent
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this
week while the low drifts northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Probably because no explicit trackable low has formed there yet.
That uncertainty in the initialization leads to a much lower model accuracy so they wait instead of getting unrealistic data.

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure is expected to form within an elongated
surface trough several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula during the next day or two.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for subsequent
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end
of the week while the low drifts northward or northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[cycloneye]

Both GFS and ECMWF have different things on medium to long range in this basin.Let's see what happens.

[Yellow Evan]

So does the UKMET. Strong CCKW should pass near 110-120W next week.

[Kingarabian]

The EPAC has been shut down it seems.

[Yellow Evan]

The EPAC has been shut down it seems.

East of 145W, yep. All the upward motion is focused from 145W to the dateline. Somewhat typical El Nino pattern.

[cycloneye]

If GFS is right,the next system will be a high ACE producer and a longtracker.

Edit:

As I posted this ATCF designated it as INVEST 96E.

[Darvince]

Do the tiny systems in the far eastern EPAC ever actually happen? They seem to love showing up on models.

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure area is expected to form a few hundred
miles south-southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec over the weekend.
Some gradual development of this system is possible early next
week while it moves slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[cycloneye]

11 AM PDT:

An area of low pressure area is expected to form several hundred
miles south-southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the weekend.
Some gradual development of this system is possible early next week
while it moves slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles
south-southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec this weekend. Gradual
development of this system is possible early next week while it
moves slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[Extratropical94]

An area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles
south-southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec this weekend. Some
development of this system is anticipated early next week while it
moves slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles
south-southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec this weekend. Some
development of this system is anticipated early next week while it
moves slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles
south-southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec this weekend.
Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive
for gradual development of this system early next week while it
moves slowly west-northwestward off the southern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles
south or south-southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec this weekend.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this low early next week while it moves northwestward
or north-northwestward toward the southern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles
south or south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec this weekend.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development early next week, and a tropical depression is likely to
form while the system moves west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles
south or south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the next
day or two. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for gradual development early next week, and a tropical depression
is likely to form while the system moves west-northwestward or
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

[cycloneye]

Dangerous situation may unfold in the next few days in CentralAmerica and in Southern Mexico.

From 4:05 UTC discussion:

A DEVELOPING CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN WINDS
OF NEAR GALE TO MINIMUM GALE FORCE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS GYRE WILL HELP INCREASE SW MONSOON
FLOW OVER THE EASTERN WATERS WHICH WILL ADVECT ABUNDANT TROPICAL
MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN WATERS AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. THIS WILL LEAD TO ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THIS
AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT THAT THE
INTERACTION OF THE GALE FORCE WINDS WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL
HELP TO GENERATE A LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC THIS WEEKEND. THIS LOW WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE NEXT WEEK. REGARDLESS OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...THIS AREA WILL BE ONE TO WATCH
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING
AND DANGEROUS MUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND
SOUTHERN MEXICO.

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS shifts east and weaker into MX.

[cycloneye]

A large area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms, extending
from Central America westward to several hundred miles south of
southeastern Mexico, is associated with a broad area of low
pressure. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the early or middle part of next week while
the low moves west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent